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CommonShore
Jun 6, 2014

A true renaissance man


UFC 239 GDT

It’s international fight week! Whatever that means. This year’s flagship card for the UFC is UFC 239: Jones vs Santos. In terms of star power it’s a bit weaker than 4th of July weekend cards in past years. This time around we have no golden mats or Lesnars Brock. We just have two title fights and a solid supporting card.

The Main Event – Light Heavyweight Championship


Jon “Bones” Jones (c)
Vs


Thiago “Maretta” Santos

Jon Jones has a possibly-deserved reputation as the greatest fighter in the UFC’s history. He’s never been defeated except on a technicality*, and really he’s never looked like he was in that much trouble in any of his fights.

This fight is the second in a new phase of Jones’s career. First, we had Jones the prospect, who flamboyantly smashed up fighters such as Stephan Bonnar, all the way to a short-notice title shot against Shogun Rua. Second, we had an era of Jones as the killer of the old guard, in which he defended his new title against 5 consecutive former champs. Then Jones had a few high-stakes defences against rivals Alexander Gustafsson and Daniel Cormier, who he defeated convincingly in rematches, and for whom retirement is in the conversation. The Cormier bout was also the first in the “garbage hot mess” phase of his career, in which his record for most consecutive UFC Light Heavyweight defences was displaced by his record-setting I can’t even remember how many failed drug tests streak. Jones closed this era with a third-round TKO of Alexander Gustafsson amid a “pulsing metabolites” controversy.

This new phase is one in which he is quietly facing a series of new contenders while trying to avoid another toothless USADA sanction. In March, he defeated streaking former middleweight journeyman Anthony Smith by a convincing, though not necessarily impressive decision, in a fight which he really could have lost on a technicality (see * above) when Smith declared he was able to continue after a disqualification-worthy foul.

Tonight he faces Thiago Santos, known as “The Hammer.” Like Anthony Smith, Santos is a middleweight also-ran (10-5) who revitalized his career by moving up to 205. Since that move, Santos has put away Eryk Anders, Jimi Manuwa, and Jan Blachowicz in performance bonus earning fights. Smith’s contendership also says a lot about the state of 205: right now he’s on a three-fight three-stoppage streak to a title shot, while twice at 185 he put together more impressive streaks without so much as a suggestion of a #1 contender fight.

The UFC thread regulars are going to roll their eyes when I repeat my assessment of this matchup: Thiago Santos has an optimized puncher’s chance against Jon Jones. Jones is handily the better all around fighter, but Santos presents a set of particular challenges that Jones has yet to face in his title run. First, Santos is a terrifying kicker, with 6 UFC finishes credited to them specifically. The best kickers Jones has faced – Machida and Belfort – only really started putting guys away with kicks after they fought. Second, Santos’s kicking game is particularly effective against the lower half of the body. He has four body kick finishes, including consecutive ones against Anthony Smith (the same) and middleweight contender Jack Hermansson. Jones’s long body and legs present an attractive, perhaps even vulnerable, target for Santos in this respect. Third, Santos is an extremely high-pressure high-pace fighter who has demonstrated a willingness to absorb damage and make fights extremely ugly, which again, Jones has not really faced at this level.

Jones is good at controlling the pace of a fight, and is by an extremely wide margin the better grappler, so expect to see Jones take a submission or ground and pound victory in the middle rounds, but don’t sleep on Santos’s kicks.

Co-Main Event – Women’s Bantamweight Championship


Amanda “Leona” Nunes (c)
Vs


Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm

This is really a keep-busy fight for Nunes, who is coming off a first-round destruction of Christiane “Cyborg” Santos in a 145 lb champ vs champ superfight. Holm is coming off of a win over prospect Megan Anderson at 145, and her last win was a cool but rather meaningless KO of Bethe Correira.

Nonetheless, Nunes is cool, and Holm is a game, durable opponent with good defense. Holm’s path to victory is probably a point fighting one with the ever-looming threat of a head kick KO. Nunes has in the past shown a tendency to fade in later rounds (see esp. vs Cat Zingano, but also vs Valentina Schevchenko), so look for Holm to exploit this with lots of circling and long outside punches. Nunes is likely going to try to put Holm away quickly with heavy punches and/or grappling, with a backup plan of “win three, survive two.” It’s likely that whoever wins the third round will win the whole fight.

The Hardcore Main Event

Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal
Vs
“Funky” Ben Askren

Masvidal is one of the best all-around fighters in the history of the sport, and a true veteran who appeared even in some Kimbo Slice Miami backyard videos back in the day. He’s coming off of a really scary KO of welterweight washout Darren Till.

Askren is a goofy looking motherfucker who talks poo poo, has a bad twitter feed, but is also arguably the best example of MMA wrestling we’ve seen yet. Askren spent a long time in the MMA hinterlands, talking poo poo about Dana White and the UFC’s welterweights from afar, before finally signing last year. He’s coming off of a controversial t-sub bulldog choke win over Robbie Lawler. It’s probable that the winner of this fight will get a title shot.

BJJ Scout loves both of these fighters and posted a good breakdown. The tl;dw is that Askren is going to try to wrestle Masvidal, and Masvidal is going to try to counter-wrestle and box up Askren. It should be a good fight and lots of people are quite excited.

Light Heavyweight Bout

Luke Skyler Rockhold
Vs
Jan Blachowicz

Rockhold is the former middleweight champion, moving up to test the waters at 205 and repeat Anthony Smith’s and Thiago Santos’s success in the shallower division. He’s coming off of a KO loss to Yoel Romero and a year’s layoff (though a year’s layoff is not uncharacteristic for Rockhold).

Jan Blachowicz is a beneficiary of the shallow waters at 205. He’s a largely forgettable Euro fighter who manages to pull off some wins before losing. He’s not a can, but this is definitely an opportunity for Rockhold to show that he’s still an elite fighter late in his career, in a new weight class.

Welterweight Bout

Diego “The Dreammare” Sanchez
Vs
Michael Chiesa

Another veteran vs contender spot. Diego is the original ultimate fighter, and if I’m not mistaken the fighter with the current longest tenure in the UFC. He has had something like 30 UFC fights in four weight classes. Chiesa is the winner of The Ultimate Fighter Live (that’s TUF 20).

Diego has been extra weird lately, having hired some kind of personal life coach and leaving his former permanent home at Jackson-Wink. Diego can do it all, but he can’t do it all well. He’s actually on a win streak, too, believe it or not.

Chiesa is a former lightweight, and a grapple specialist. He’s a real whiner in a lot of cases, but he has an extremely high finishing percentage from back control. He has never demonstrated any kind of significant punching power, which is good for Diego.

Preliminary Card (ESPN)
Featherweight – Gilbert “Giblert” Melendez vs Arnold Allen
Bantamweight – Marlon Vera vs Nohelin Hernandez
Women’s Strawweight - Claudia Gadelha vs Randa Markos
Bantamweight – Alejandro Perez vs. Yadlong Song

Early Preliminary Card (ESPN+)
Middleweight – Edmen Shabazyan vs Jack Marshman
Welterweight – Ismail Naurdiev vs Chance Rencountre
Women’s Bantamweight – Julia Avila vs Pannie Kianzad

Snack Rating
Three piece and a soda:

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LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"
heckums yeah, i'm moderately (some might say stupidly) excited for these fights

e: side note, the earliest prelims are on fight pass in the US, i believe

At least, that's what fight pass is telling me

ELI PORTER
Sep 16, 2007

I posted on Something Awful and all I got was this lousy t-shirt
peremptory RIP to thiago santos

Bluedeanie
Jul 20, 2008

It's no longer a blue world, Max. Where could we go?



I wanna believe but have very little reason to actually do so.

old.flv
Jan 28, 2017

A good lad who likes his Anna's.

LobsterMobster posted:

heckums yeah, i'm moderately (some might say stupidly) excited for these fights

same - I am irrationally pumped for the first three fights on the main card

Evilpiggie
Feb 22, 2009

ELI PORTER posted:

peremptory RIP to thiago santos

I don't think he'll win, but I don't think Jones will starch him.

CarlCX
Dec 14, 2003

This is a good-rear end card and I cannot wait to still be sort of disappointed in Jones/Santos going exactly the way it has to.

Kragger99
Mar 21, 2004
Pillbug
Here's the Embedded with the weigh-in's if anyone wanted to see it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnjMGesM-JE

Best Friends
Nov 4, 2011

Isn't that Holm / Nunes fight five rounds?

Zwachro
Mar 7, 2003
C808BEA

Best Friends posted:

Isn't that Holm / Nunes fight five rounds?

It is.

CommonShore posted:

Nunes is likely going to try to put Holm away quickly with heavy punches and/or grappling, with a backup plan of “win three, survive two.”

Brut
Aug 21, 2007

Kragger99 posted:

Here's the Embedded with the weigh-in's if anyone wanted to see it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnjMGesM-JE

lmao every single person weighing in for as long as I can remember has a bottle of whatever bullshit hydrating cocktail their camp makes for them, Luke Rockhold has a loving piece of watermelon. I don't know if he's an idiot or a genius.

Eat This Glob
Jan 14, 2008

God is dead. God remains dead. And we have killed him. Who will wipe this blood off us? What festivals of atonement, what sacred games shall we need to invent?

for whatever reason I thought yesterday was saturday and i was hoping to start my day off with the news of jones' kicking this santos fella's head clean off his shoulders then pissing hot for turpentine and whatever steroids dolph lundgren was on for Rocky 4 but here we are.

I.N.R.I
May 26, 2011

Brut posted:

lmao every single person weighing in for as long as I can remember has a bottle of whatever bullshit hydrating cocktail their camp makes for them, Luke Rockhold has a loving piece of watermelon. I don't know if he's an idiot or a genius.

not a bad choice tbh.

ELI PORTER
Sep 16, 2007

I posted on Something Awful and all I got was this lousy t-shirt
Jon Jones is going to utilize insanely powerful clothesline and power bomb techniques to physically dominate his opponent

Pwny_Xpress
Nov 17, 2006

WEC Never Die

Brut posted:

lmao every single person weighing in for as long as I can remember has a bottle of whatever bullshit hydrating cocktail their camp makes for them, Luke Rockhold has a loving piece of watermelon. I don't know if he's an idiot or a genius.

He is also cutting a lot less weight than most after moving up to lighttrashweight

CommonShore
Jun 6, 2014

A true renaissance man


Naw, watermelon is a legit good choice in those circumstances.

Cyber Dog
Feb 22, 2008

yeah i mean, theres like 20 lbs he no longer has to cut, so he's probably feeling great and like he deserves some watermelon

Brut
Aug 21, 2007

Cyber Dog posted:

yeah i mean, theres like 20 lbs he no longer has to cut, so he's probably feeling great and like he deserves some watermelon

I mean this is post-weigh in, obviously all the fighters go on to have big meals and I'm sure some of those include watermelon, it's just funny watching him walking out with a slice in his hand immediately after weighing in.

I have some watermelon in the fridge I'll make sure to eat a slice in his honor when he's waking up and grappling with the ref.

DumbWhiteGuy
Jul 4, 2007

You need haters. Fellas if you got 20 haters, you need 40 of them motherfuckers. If there's any haters in here that don't have nobody to hate on, feel free to hate on me
https://twitter.com/mma_vegeta/status/1147517349311860736

DumbWhiteGuy
Jul 4, 2007

You need haters. Fellas if you got 20 haters, you need 40 of them motherfuckers. If there's any haters in here that don't have nobody to hate on, feel free to hate on me

CommonShore posted:

Snack Rating
Three piece and a soda:



this is a good idea, thank you

Brut
Aug 21, 2007


https://twitter.com/smoogymma/status/1147585844208951301

old.flv
Jan 28, 2017

A good lad who likes his Anna's.
diego sanchez is a straight up nutter it's amazing

BaggySteve
Dec 4, 2018

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
how did hollys clit look like at the weigh ins

Nystral
Feb 6, 2002

Every man likes a pretty girl with him at a skeleton dance.

BaggySteve posted:

how did hollys clit look like at the weigh ins

Wtf kind of pervy poo poo is this?

Radical 90s Wizard
Aug 5, 2008

~SS-18 burning bright,
Bathe me in your cleansing light~
I really want Diego to win

Dr. Abysmal
Feb 17, 2010

We're all doomed

Nystral posted:

Wtf kind of pervy poo poo is this?

When Holly KO’d Rousey people on Sherdog or whatever studied her undies during weigh in and determined that she was probably on steroids due to having a big clit

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

c-spam cannot afford



Nystral posted:

Wtf kind of pervy poo poo is this?

It’s a callback to ancient internet times when holly was accused of peds and internet nerds were going on and on about how you could tell from weigh in pics.

mem
Sep 1, 2005
How is ESPN+ streaming quality?

TheReverend
Jun 21, 2005

mem posted:

How is ESPN+ streaming quality?

First event was a little Rocky but I'm otherwise cool with it.

Brut
Aug 21, 2007

I am watching the whole thing through FP but I think the first 3 fights aren't on ESPN+ at all as far as I can tell.

G-Hawk
Dec 15, 2003

Brut posted:

I am watching the whole thing through FP but I think the first 3 fights aren't on ESPN+ at all as far as I can tell.

they are per the espn schedule

edit: its live on espn+ now

Brut
Aug 21, 2007

G-Hawk posted:

they are per the espn schedule

edit: its live on espn+ now

Oh ok good.

FP has it as starting at 6:30, what are they showing right now?

Soothing Vapors
Mar 26, 2006

Associate Justice Lena "Kegels" Dunham: An uncool thought to have: 'is that guy walking in the dark behind me a rapist? Never mind, he's Asian.

Brut posted:

Oh ok good.

FP has it as starting at 6:30, what are they showing right now?

it's just showing a placeholder graphic that says 'event about to begin' on ESPN+ rn

Brut
Aug 21, 2007

Soothing Vapors posted:

it's just showing a placeholder graphic that says 'event about to begin' on ESPN+ rn

Oh ok I'm getting a bunch of Thiago Santos promos showing how he's teaching kids for free in his home town and poo poo, "the live event will begin shortly" in the corner

Thought maybe they're doing some kind of ESPN-specific preshow that just wouldn't make sense broadcasting to FP

Officer CockKnuckle
Feb 18, 2007
And here we go :)

CommonShore
Jun 6, 2014

A true renaissance man


I want it on record that the term "Goat" for "Greatest Of All Time" is unfathomably stupid.

Ratios and Tendency
Apr 23, 2010

:swoon: MURALI :swoon:


I would have thought Masvidal was favourite. Askren was getting beat to poo poo by Robbie until the ref hosed up.

CommonShore
Jun 6, 2014

A true renaissance man


Oh a hybrid new/old ruleset. That won't cause any problems.

LobsterMobster
Oct 29, 2009

"I was being quiet and trying to be a good boy but he dialed the right combination to open the throw-down vault and it was on."

"Walter Foxx is ten times brighter than your bulb at the bottom of the tree merry xmas"
time for the ol face punch'ums

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Soothing Vapors
Mar 26, 2006

Associate Justice Lena "Kegels" Dunham: An uncool thought to have: 'is that guy walking in the dark behind me a rapist? Never mind, he's Asian.
I dimly remember thinking Avila was cool in Invicta but I don't remember any of her fights

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