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Nessus posted:They ought to get on down to Texas and start interviewing people in taquerias and roadhouses instead of jacking off a bunch of dusty old retirees from the pollution factory. Sometimes I suspect half of this is because a lot of the media comes from j-schools in the Midwest, so some chud in a diner in Ohio reminds them vaguely of Dad. It may be partially that, but I also think part of it is just our dumbass national myth of average Americans being idyllic citizen-farmers or industrious factory workers. Well, that and the media being sensitive to charges that they don't care about "flyover states" and trying to atone for it by giving too much attention to swing voters in the Midwest.
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Oct 27, 2020 22:35
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Phlegmish posted:He was also in Home Alone 2 He was also in "Ghosts Can't Do It," which I have not seen but sounds repellant.  Apparently, he got a Golden Raspberry for it, though, so...good for him?
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Oct 28, 2020 00:47
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Phlegmish posted:Surely a movie called Ghosts Can't Do It is a cinematic masterpiece We Hate Movies did a good episode on it, but it unfortunately has not aged well - they did it right before the 2016 election, and well, they did not predict the outcome accurately, let's say. Anyway, some valuable numbers for context: https://twitter.com/VolviEinhorn/status/1321190042652577792 Majorian fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Oct 28, 2020 |
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Oct 28, 2020 00:52
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Youth Decay posted:Good god Nate, we get it. Everyone is poo poo scared of a Trump win you don't need to keep tweeting about whatever tiny possibilities he has. A stable race is bad for 538's clicks. 
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Oct 28, 2020 01:37
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nachos posted:Manufacturing a horse race seems misguided to me as a goal. I feel like this country is ready to bathe in trumps blood come November 3rd and will eagerly click and share polls showing huge Biden leads. They will at first, but then they'll stop clicking before long, because what's there to worry about? Much better business model to keep people on the edge of their seats.
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Oct 28, 2020 02:02
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eke out posted:Yeah, it's a tautological statement to say "early turnout seven days before an election is less than total turnout of last election, so you're gonna need more turnout" Yeah, exactly. There's a lot of context missing from this Twitter rando's take, so maybe don't take it too seriously. I say this as someone who believes that Biden's making a lot of boneheaded strategic mistakes in this campaign, although I'm still confident he's going to win.
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Oct 28, 2020 02:43
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Harlock posted:Florida above North Carolina is surprising to me because I think Biden is going to win NC. He's focusing a lot on old white folks, so...ya know. Florida.
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Oct 28, 2020 03:54
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Fojar38 posted:To the extent that you can take any swing state "for granted," it's because Michigan and Wisconsin have had consistently excellent polls for Biden and not even the usual partisan hack polls have been able to move the averages much. Also he's learned at least some of the right lessons and given them as much attention as he could, given the pandemic-y circumstances.
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Oct 28, 2020 03:59
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nah posted:How’d he do vs Bernie for black voters in the primaries This doesn't strike me as the optimal thread for this discussion.
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Oct 28, 2020 05:09
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Grouchio posted:Is the Sumter metric very good or very bad Uncertain, I'm afraid. But it seems likely to me that the Trump olds were always going to turn out in full force no matter what, so there's a good chance all the non-CHUDs in the area are turning out as well.
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Oct 29, 2020 20:31
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Grouchio posted:I'm going to prefice this again: Is this going by expected total votes? Or just early votes? I'm taking "final margins" to mean total.
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Oct 30, 2020 22:08
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Spiritus Nox posted:I just think he's a grifter who tells progressives what they want to hear for engagement. I remember back during the Iowa Caucus fiasco he was screaming to anyone who would listen about stolen votes with no real evidence beyond how delayed and messy the whole thing was. He's actually a very good journalist; he's just playing the "horserace" game here. He's hardly the only one.
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Oct 31, 2020 00:24
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:Reminder that Eoin Higgins was whining, just a short time ago, that Biden not doing door-to-door canvassing in the middle of a loving pandemic was going to prove a fatal blow to his campaign. I'd like to see the tweet if you're going to make a claim like this, please. Fojar38 posted:Considering that tweet where he cites the WSJ which cites Trafalgar as evidence that Biden is losing he does not seem to be a very good journalist, as being a good journalist generally requires verifying your sources legitimacy First of all, I have some bad news for you about journalists in general. Secondly, I don't believe he said anywhere that Biden is losing.
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Oct 31, 2020 00:36
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mediaphage posted:i dunno about fatal blow but i performed the extremely difficult task of googling his name and twitter and door to door and got u this Thanks for finding the tweet! Yeah, it doesn't look like he's claiming it's a fatal blow at all.
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Oct 31, 2020 00:40
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James Garfield posted:Very easy to google Okay, I'm genuinely perplexed, because I did Google it and this is what I came up with:  Even so, none of that is calling Biden's lack of ground game a "death blow" or fatal or whatever.
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Oct 31, 2020 00:46
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Sheriff Falc posted:Why is this thread becoming the twitter hot takes and panic thread Everyone's scarred from 2016, and rightfully so. But yeah, there's very little reason at this point to say that Biden isn't the clear favorite. Even Matt Christman has been saying that you'd have to be pretty blackpilled to ignore the mountain of data. evilweasel posted:The dumbass motherfucker was calling Trump a clear favorite at the same time. Eh, he was hardly the only journalist that was playing the "RBG's death is going to hand Trump a second term" narrative. Kind of seems unfair to single him out for that. Vincent Van Goatse posted:That's because it's the glaringly clear subtext of the tweets. A dog whistle, if you will. Kind of seems to me like you're reading something into his tweets that aren't there.
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Oct 31, 2020 00:51
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:Yeah, there's absolutely no loving subtext at all in this tweet: Yeah, okay, it's a dumb take. What can I say? He's had a lot of good takes over the past couple years, but this one definitely isn't one of them. I don't think it's a dumber take than that of every other journalist who is playing the "it's still a horserace! Click on my article!" game, but I do expect better from him.
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Oct 31, 2020 01:07
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TwoQuestions posted:That's what's really getting me. A slightly stale loaf of white bread is very likely to break the back of the Republican Party. Something feels off, probably just anxiety. It's a weird year, with a very weird incumbent leading the GOP. A lot of things that "shouldn't be working," are working, due to circumstance. Just roll with it, is my feeling. Majorian fucked around with this message at 01:21 on Oct 31, 2020 |
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Oct 31, 2020 01:19
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TheOneAndOnlyT posted:Speaking of 2015-16, does anyone remember how D&D was feeling around this time in 2016? I know there were plenty of people outside the forums sounding alarm bells, but I honestly don't even remember what it was like on the forums. Overconfident. I wasn't a Clinton fan (although I held my nose and voted for her) and even I was 100% certain she'd win. The fact that people are anxious is not the worst thing, even if Biden's got a better chance of winning than Hilldawg and will probably walk away with this thing.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:14
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TwoQuestions posted:I'm not freaking out, it just feels like the White Rabbit scene in Holy Grail, except it's a three toed sloth tearing the knights limb from limb (and them hitting one another in their confusion because Trump and his toadies are dumb). Think about it this way: Matt Christman of the Chapo Trap House has been saying that the evidence is heavily in Biden's favor, and one would have to be heavily blackpilled to dismiss it.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:29
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Tibalt posted:If I posted that "Donald Trump is going to overperform in the polls by +4% because the (historically low turnout) no college white men are going to show up and 80% of undecided voters are going to break for Trump, letting him flip Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania by a couple thousand votes each", I would have been dismissed because it's a very unlikely series of events. Tbf, the bigger issue was that Clinton was unable to turn out black and brown voters in those states: quote:Some 88% of African-American voters supported Clinton, versus 8% for Donald Trump, as of very early Wednesday morning. While that's a large margin, it's not as big as Obama's victory over Mitt Romney in 2012. Obama locked up 93% of the black vote to Romney's 7%. As critical as I am of Biden and his strategy, he's not making the same mistakes she did, which is why he's probably going to win.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:45
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:I mean, he is also going to win because 10% of Trumps 2016 voters are voting for him. Anything else over Clinton's 2016 turnout is gravy. Well, yeah, but he's also doing worse among Latinos than she did. He's just turning out enough Trump '16 voters and other old whites to make up for the shortfall.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:49
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:If you want a real treat read the primary threads from 2 years ago. A large segment of this forums felt Bernie had it in the bag in early 2019, and even six months ago people were 100% convinced that Biden would gaffe himself into another loss, Trump would pull it together, etc. Yeah, but then we'd have to go back and laugh at posters who supported Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, etc, this primary - or, even worse, supported Clinton during 2016's primary.
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Oct 31, 2020 02:52
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:He's losing 2-4% of Latino voters depending on the state and voter composition (he's actually improving on Clinton's margins in Florida depending on the poll) and is running 10% higher in much larger demographics. According to the latest Telemundo poll, it's 48 Biden, 43 Trump in Florida, whereas Clinton had 62% four years ago. Biden may still win Florida (I give it 50-50, just purely as a gut check), but it's probably not going to be because his outreach to Latinos has been particularly successful. \/\/\/  \/\/\/
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Oct 31, 2020 02:58
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Spiritus Nox posted:....Remind me, was Clint Eastwood And The Chair part of the 2012 RNC? or 2016? 2012, because Obama was invisible in the chair.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:00
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Grondoth posted:2012. It replaced Trump's sketch where he did an Apprentice bit with an Obama impersonator! Just think, we could have avoided all of this if they had just let Trump be unfunny.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:05
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bobjr posted:I'm not counting out a 2024 run from Trump at this point. You shouldn't, although him losing is going to be a big blow to his profile. Fascists tend to do well as long as they're winning. When that stops, they often start hemorrhaging support.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:15
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TyrantWD posted:It may not be the worst thing. With the GOP heading more into qanon territory, and dumb/boring fascists like Cotton, the Democrats can probably hold on to a lot of the suburban vote. I think the Dems should fight for underprivileged minorities (including Latinos) because it's the right thing to do and also because it is a smart electoral strategy.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:24
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Straight White Shark posted:Eh, I'm not sure about this. I think the olds snap back pretty quickly unless the Democrats manage to really sweeten the pot on health & social security for them, but a lot of suburban yuppie types may stick around for a while. The Republicans have surrendered a lot of ground for business and science types that is going to be hard to claw back. Possibly, but that assumes that they won't be disillusioned by Biden being unable to handle COVID and the associated economic collapse - which, let's be real, is not an unlikely outcome.
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Oct 31, 2020 03:34
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Ok Comboomer posted:The more I look at demographic data the more I think that “defender of masculinity” is going to be possibly the biggest breakpoint for the electorate going forward in the next two years, more so than white nationalism even. Sounds like the Democrats need to make a stronger, sustained appeal to people's material needs, then!
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Oct 31, 2020 18:40
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:If you are voting for Trump because you enjoy that he gets to call women dogs and whores because you too feel that way and are tired of these uppity women getting a voice in politics, I don't think "well your health care is gonna get cheaper" is a compelling issue. I think Bernie's success among Latino voters of all genders proves this to be a pretty short-sighted viewpoint. quote:Also I would much rather see efforts spent to attract voters who aren't in the "toxic masculinity but willing to vote to help myself even though I REALLY hate women" camp in a world in which resources and time are finite. That seems like a recipe for electoral disaster in any year that Trump isn't running. quote:"I know you think Jews are scum who should be herded into camps and gassed, but have you considered that if you vote for Biden that while he won't help you kill Jews, he might lower your taxes?" This is a really lovely opinion to ascribe to the grandson of a Holocaust survivor. Besides that, though, there's a pretty big difference between saying, "Don't just cut these demographics loose" and "Allow literal Nazis into the party." Xombie posted:More running cover for "economically anxious" bigots, cool How am I doing that, exactly? Majorian fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Oct 31, 2020 |
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Oct 31, 2020 18:45
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:There is no evidence that the segment of defecting Latino voters (largely young men) voted in the primary, where Bernie did better amongst a much smaller pool of Hispanic voters - the voters that bothered to show up in a primary. Bernie did quite well among young Latino voters of all genders. quote:Infact, we do know that only 4% of Bernie voters are voting for Trump (which are roughly identical numbers to almost any other primary candidate) which would suggest that the pool of defecting Hispanic voters were not winnable by Bernie, in that they didn't previously bother to vote for him in the primary. "Voting for Trump" is not what you should be worried about. "Not voting at all" is. quote:I don't think you're going to bat for Neo-Nazis, but I also don't think we should be going to bat for young men who are specifically choosing Trump because they like his toxic masculinity - and explaining their voting choice as "well the Democrats didn't win them over" instead of "they are proactively choosing Trump" is going to bat for them and diminishing their agency. If an appeal to their material interests doesn't attract Trump-voting Latinos, it will at least get a significant amount of those who don't vote to turn out. Majorian fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Oct 31, 2020 |
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Oct 31, 2020 18:50
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:OK, but we have no way to tell who isn't voting in this election We know that Biden is trailing Clinton in Latino support. I don't think that's going to cost him the election, but it will certainly hurt the Democrats in the future if they continue to hemorrhage Latino support. quote:Like, Bernie's biggest claim to Hispanic vote share is the Nevada caucus, in which less than 100,000 people participated. No, his biggest claim to the Latino vote share are states like California. Xombie posted:Ones who are Democrats. No evidence shows these people are now or ever have been Trump voters. Again, the concern here is not Trump voters, but non-voters.
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Oct 31, 2020 18:55
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Xombie posted:No it isn't. You're the only one who is talking about non-voters, because you got cornered having a bad point about Latino Trump voters. My original post was as follows: Majorian posted:Sounds like the Democrats need to make a stronger, sustained appeal to people's material needs, then! This was in response to OKC talking about conservatives trying to chase low-educated male POC voters. I'm sorry I'm not making the strawman argument you want me to be making, but thems the breaks, I guess? 
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Oct 31, 2020 19:00
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Xombie posted:Ok Comboomer never mentioned non-voters, no one you're responding to is talking about non-voters either. He also wasn't talking about Latino Trump voters; he said "The more I look at demographic data the more I think that 'defender of masculinity' is going to be possibly the biggest breakpoint for the electorate going forward in the next two years, more so than white nationalism even."
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Oct 31, 2020 19:05
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Shammypants posted:The NoJoe position was a hope or guess of low turnout for Biden or high turnout for third parties to reflect distaste for Biden. That didn’t manifest so now it’s time to search for scraps in cross tabs and suggest maybe Biden is doing badly in some locality among Black voters or some areas among Hispanic voters, despite very thin evidence for this. There's...quite a bit of evidence, actually.
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Oct 31, 2020 19:07
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:2. When you look at the specific demographics of the groups, Hispanic men (and even young Hispanic men) are the ones supporting Trump See, you're still making the same flawed assumption that it's either "Biden or Trump," "Republican or Democrat." There are still a lot of non-voters - that's why Harris has been spending so much time in Texas lately. quote:But all of that misses the bigger issue - which is you seem to blaming the Democrats for a group of voters making a proactive choice to support Trump specifically because they like Trump's toxic masculinity. Again, that is not what is happening. I am blaming the Democrats for not being able to turn out a critically important demographic of voters to even Hillary '16 levels. Just saying, "They're sexist! That's why they're voting for Trump" strikes me as extremely reductive, especially when we're talking about a demographic that seemed to support Hillary Clinton, a woman, more than they support Joe Biden, a man. Sanguinia posted:Just giving people things they need isn't enough in politics and it never has. I agree, but the Dems aren't even promising that much, so...
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Oct 31, 2020 19:12
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James Garfield posted:Why are we discussing the Biden campaign failing with <cherry picked demographic group> when Texas is close? Because A, Latinos are the largest ethnic minority in the U.S. (and are still growing), and B, if Biden loses Texas, it will be because he failed to fully engage Latinos.
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Oct 31, 2020 19:32
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:Because this is the polls thread and were basing this conversation on polls (the only data we have) which cannot (by their design) capture the hypothetical non-voter who would have voted for Bernie but won’t vote for Biden. And yet again, the polls still show what they show: lower support for BIden among Latino voters than Hillary '16. I realize it's comforting to just write those lost votes off as a bunch of sexists, but A, that explanation is at best reductive, since Hillary Clinton is a woman and Joe Biden is not, and B, it still doesn't take into account the fact that a lot of Latino voters have indicated that they don't plan to vote this year.
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Oct 31, 2020 19:40
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Pick posted:When we look at whether it's sexism, we tend to look at two things: 1) whether it changed female Hispanic votes (data shows they have not moved more Republican whatsoever*) and 2) whether Hispanic men are saying in their own words that they like the toxic masculinity stuff, which they are (see the two NYT articles I posted previously). Those that are moving over to Trump, sure. I'm much more interested in those who aren't actually turning out, though, since they're likely to be a much larger group. Those are the people who could be picked up by Republicans over the next couple years, as OKC was saying. As I said originally, if the Dems want to stop that from happening, one of the things they need to do is appeal to their material needs. TheDeadlyShoe posted:even leaving aside that this wasnt the original topic, you have a missing link here. there is nothing to show that these people would have voted for Bernie. In fact given the last 4 years have been Republican-dominated, this election is a referendum on Trump and the Republicans and the fact that more Hispanics are voting R implies that those particular voters like what they see out of trump. Well, first of all, leave Bernie out of it. That was just an example on my part of why appealing to material interests works with otherwise-culturally-conservative younger POC demographics. Secondly, as that Pew study I posted shows, Latino voters are still less likely to vote in this election than other demographics. Like it or not, Trump's appalling record isn't driving them to the polls, and neither is what Biden is offering them.
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Oct 31, 2020 19:50
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