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rdb posted:God I wanted one of those so bad when I was 16. There is one for sale locally in mint condition with less than 20k miles but they want $11k. It has the original window sticker and it was $39k in 1997. The other ones for sale have 200k+ on the clock and look trashed. Surprised they made that far given the northstar under the hood. If you could get it for 9k that would seem like an ok deal. I didn't know it was a Northstar though, I though it was some one-off Olds engine. Still cool but not crazy cool.
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Jan 27, 2021 05:51
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A bunch of folks already answered but I typed this up so here you go. The Door Frame posted:So it's a loan where the recipient doesn't own the collateral, based on an educated guess, and contingent on theoretically being able to buy the collateral? Where does the bank profit, or are they gambling too? Here is the trade (probably, I don’t actually know anything about GameStop shorts). Pension funds and other institutional investors own a jillion dollars of various stocks and other assets. They use those assets to borrow money from banks in short term loans where they give the banks the stocks as collateral. They pay the banks some very modest fee, get more money to invest in more clever things and then the bank gets to use those stocks as if the bank owned them. Separately, the bank has a relationship with a hedge fund. The hedge fund wants to make money by being very clever and trading things. The bank cannot. So the bank makes money by helping the hedge fund do clever things. The bank takes less risk than the hedge fund and gets paid less for it. So the hedge fund thinks GameStop will tank. They want to make money off that. They want to make the most money they can. Derivatives are one way to do it, as mentioned, but they can be expensive. Functionally, derivatives will be the same as the following. The hedge fund asks the bank to sell GameStop short for them. A short sale is when you agree to sell something you do not own (almost always below current price). You do this by borrowing the thing from someone else for a nominal fee and then agreeing to give it back to them in the future. If you are clever, the price will drop and you will have to pay the nominal fee and can then buy more of the thing you borrowed at a new, low price and pocket the difference. How smart! Example with completely made up numbers: GME is at $100/share. I short sell it at $90. I pay $1 for the privilege of borrowing a share to short sell and agree to return that share in one month. I now have $89 ($90 from short sale - $1 for borrowing the share). In one month I have to return that one share of GME I borrowed. If GME is priced at $89 or less, I make money. Yay! If it is priced at more than $89 I lose money. So the hedge fund borrows a share from the bank and sells it at some price. In the future they will have to replace that share. The bank does not really own the share it just let the hedge fund borrow (and even if they did...) so the bank wants to make absolutely sure they get the share back. They do this by making the hedge fund give them stuff that is worth roughly however much the hedge fund owes them. But the bank is not dumb. The bank does not want some garbage GME stock because that changes all the time. The bank wants cash or treasuries (or GME stock at a steep discount). Let’s go back to the example. If I’ve borrowed that share and sold short at $90 and the price goes down to $65 two weeks from now I’m very happy. But what if some jerks on the internet ruin everything and the share price skyrockets to $200? As the price goes up, the bank will give me a very polite call. Depending on how things work, at $100 they will say “we notice you have a trade at $90 and you’re going to owe us either $10 ($90 sold vs $100 obligation to buy) or $100 (full obligation to buy). Please give us $10/$100 now so we know you’re good for it.” As the price keeps going up, eventually the hedge fund is going to have an obligation to give the bank so much cash in the form of collateral that one of two things will happen. Either the hedge fund doesn’t have that much in assets and it goes broke or the hedge fund doesn’t have that much in liquid assets (maybe they bought a ton of forests as a long term play on paper in western Washington) and they default on their agreement with the bank. Then the bank immediately stops trading with them and takes all their stuff and they go bust. And that is why naked shorting is generally considered bad. Keynes, maybe posted:markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
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Jan 27, 2021 06:08
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The Door Frame posted:So it's a loan where the recipient doesn't own the collateral, based on an educated guess, and contingent on theoretically being able to buy the collateral? Where does the bank profit, or are they gambling too? Interest and fees. The bank/broker also likely has access to other collateral owned by the people shorting in the form of shares/cash in their account >100% is possible because many different brokers are allowing these shorts and there is no central mechanism to coordinate between brokers. It is assumed, because markets are “efficient” (lol), that the people shorting would be rational enough not to get this far over their skis
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Jan 27, 2021 06:38
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:When you put it that way it's some serious bullshit it's even allowed in the first place. And no wonder there's a industry based on making BS financial reports specifically to force share prices down.
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Jan 27, 2021 06:44
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builds character posted:A bunch of folks already answered but I typed this up so here you go.
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Jan 27, 2021 07:03
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builds character posted:A bunch of folks already answered but I typed this up so here you go. Thank you for the explanation, lol get wrecked capitalists.
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Jan 27, 2021 07:33
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This is a fun little video on it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HVZCyH5U8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdpVzzXWOTA Humphreys fucked around with this message at 09:40 on Jan 27, 2021 |
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Jan 27, 2021 09:08
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If you think short selling is bad, read up on synthetic CDOs. And a somewhat AI version of these events actually happened in 2008, where Porsche and VW were duking it out, and VW was, for a fleeing moment, the most valuable company on earth. Edit: I think the link to the FT article is fucky, but just search for "porsche short squeeze". bolind fucked around with this message at 12:37 on Jan 27, 2021 |
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Jan 27, 2021 10:50
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Isn't this whole thing essentially the endgame plot of the movie "Trading Places"?
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Jan 27, 2021 11:20
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Thumposaurus posted:Isn't this whole thing essentially the endgame plot of the movie "Trading Places"? No, that was about oranges and racism.
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Jan 27, 2021 11:31
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I'm enjoying the whining of people that basically do this kinda poo poo day in day out and make millions saying that it's wrong that normal people get a chance to do the same.
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Jan 27, 2021 11:46
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Yeah literally "the wrong people are manipulating the stock market, why can't I bankrupt this company in peace"
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Jan 27, 2021 11:48
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I don't fully understand the "short selling is inherently bad" position. Why should you only be able to make a prediction that a company increases in value, which is the only thing you can do by going long? I agree that trying to manipulate the market to drive share price down is bad but the same is true of pump schemes.
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Jan 27, 2021 11:58
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cakesmith handyman posted:Yeah literally "the wrong people are manipulating the stock market, why can't I bankrupt this company in peace" gamestop should go bankrupt tbh
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Jan 27, 2021 11:58
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I don't fully understand the "short selling is inherently bad" position. Why should you only be able to make a prediction that a company increases in value, which is the only thing you can do by going long? You can't separate the prediction and the manipulation, so either say gently caress it rich people can do what they want, or we line them all up against the wall. KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:gamestop should go bankrupt tbh Not my pig, not my farm.
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Jan 27, 2021 12:01
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builds character posted:A bunch of folks already answered but I typed this up so here you go. Thank you for the informative post. So doing some thinking out loud so I get my facts in order, these hedgefund guys decided to short the poo poo out of GameStop thinking it would be an easy target to the tune of 130% of all outstanding shares (How is that legal?) at about $4 not expecting any resistance or defence. A Redditor notices the absurd shorting, works out the market cap is low enough that it wouldnt take an absurd amount of capital to perform a short squeeze and then crowd sources the interest to begin to generate a squeeze. The share price reverses the downward movement and the redditor gains the critical mass and energy of shitposting as the squeeze begins and more shitposters pile on for the lulz. As the price goes up that attracts other capital to get in on the action and the shareprice jumps to $20 where the hedgefund has to recapitalise because of the sudden exposure. They try to wait out the squeeze but the power of shitposting andother capital now smelling absolute carnage they could make money from drives the price up even MORE so we now have the original short of $4 now has a $200 per share exposure to a call as of now. That means the Hedgefund is utterly hosed as there is no way they can cover that amount of exposure so they will declare bankrupcy and the power of shitposting wins (even if they lose their money, they were in it for the lulz so mostly no real biggie, they achieved the destruction of the hedgefund which was their goal altho some of them no doubt made out like bandits) So more thinking out loud is that now the shitposters and the shorters have seen that the rules of the game can be weaponised against short sellers it's pretty much the case the shitposters will go looking for the next target to run a short squeeze against and because the shitposters are not rational players they will not stop the squeeze - and other capital will also join in because of course there's money to be made in a successful squeeze. If then I have it right this should scare the absolute gently caress out of some shorting assholes...? Edit : And they are setting up another huge short squeeze in AMC god drat this is amazing Edit2 : Looks like the hedge fund is out and got done for the tune of 13 billion CAT INTERCEPTOR fucked around with this message at 12:29 on Jan 27, 2021 |
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Jan 27, 2021 12:04
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Edit : And they are setting up another huge short squeeze in AMC god drat this is amazing It's one of the most delightful things I've seen. 2021 is really delivering quickly. I was watching the beginning of it but since all my money is already tied in other shares/investments that I didn't want to risk (it was a REAL DEAL RISK) I nodded and said 'god speed trolls'
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Jan 27, 2021 12:44
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cakesmith handyman posted:You can't separate the prediction and the manipulation how is this true unless you believe that any signaling is manipulation, which is bizarre
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Jan 27, 2021 12:51
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The wallstreetbets trolls don't risk too much, do they? All they have to do is a normal long buy, and then sit and wait (and agree to do so.) Best case, they fleece a hedge fond when they're trying to cover their positions. Worst case, they lose what they put on the table. Is that correctly understood?
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Jan 27, 2021 12:57
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:how is this true unless you believe that any signaling is manipulation, which is bizarre You are betting woth something you dont own that some one elses asset will lose value. This is immoral as gently caress esp how it encourages you to make sure your bet works out. This is exactly like if somone bets your wallet will lose 100 bucks. Because frankly they are going to steal your hundred to make sure they win
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Jan 27, 2021 13:05
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:I don't fully understand the "short selling is inherently bad" position. Why should you only be able to make a prediction that a company increases in value, which is the only thing you can do by going long? If you’re talking about what I said then you should re-read it and the link. bolind posted:The wallstreetbets trolls don't risk too much, do they? All they have to do is a normal long buy, and then sit and wait (and agree to do so.) Yes but also maybe no. It depends a lot on what they are doing. If they’re just buying GameStop stock then they will be out reduction in value of that stock. If they are buying either on leverage or with any kind of options they may be out more. CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Thank you for the informative post. I think the 130% number is a little misleading because my guess is that all those short positions don’t trigger at once. So there’s probably 130% spread out over a period of months or years. For a company like GameStop that is publicly traded that means there’s functionally unlimited stock it’s just a question of how much it gets traded at. The funds are still hosed because they have to post collateral and that is the trigger that will bring them down. It’s what killed Lehman Brothers, for example. They had assets worth more than their liabilities but they couldn’t come up with the cash to post (plus it’s slightly more complicated than that because they’re a broker-dealer but that’s the simple version and still fundamentally true). CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:You are betting woth something you dont own that some one elses asset will lose value. This is immoral as gently caress esp how it encourages you to make sure your bet works out. This is naked shorting. You could also do a covered short where you actually own the asset and you short it at x dollars and if the market goes down then you’re out at x but if the market goes up you’re just out the cost of the short. This is usually done with derivatives which were made up for this purpose and then quickly got used for more speculative things. bolind posted:If you think short selling is bad, read up on synthetic CDOs. I thought The Big Short did a really good job of explaining CDOs. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pxr_FzpPM2Q The irony of all of this is that now is probably the best time ever to short GameStop.
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Jan 27, 2021 13:13
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builds character posted:If you’re talking about what I said then you should re-read it and the link. nah not you, a bunch of other posters like CT seem to be taking the position that short selling is evil or immoral or whatever CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:You are betting woth something you dont own that some one elses asset will lose value. This is immoral as gently caress esp how it encourages you to make sure your bet works out. yeah not all shorts are naked shorts and naked shorts have a lot more risk than covered shorts. you can take exactly the same position re covered shorts and long positions - i am betting that the thing i own will increase in value - i have exactly the same incentive to make sure my bet works out. but somehow hype and pump are not seen as nearly so immoral. edit: don't take this in any way as a defense of hedge funds, i think this poo poo is hilarious as much as the next person. just don't care whether people decide to short stuff, and short sellers do frequently uncover serious uhh problems or fraud at companies (eg Nikola) KYOON GRIFFEY JR fucked around with this message at 14:25 on Jan 27, 2021 |
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Jan 27, 2021 14:09
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lmao. This seems like a very 'gently caress they've realised they can make things happen causing our money making system to be a lot more unpredictable' reaction. https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1354408106139275266?s=20 https://twitter.com/Markvsii/status/1354160873871437827?s=20 https://twitter.com/asymco/status/1354428726616993792?s=20 Olympic Mathlete fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Jan 27, 2021 |
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Jan 27, 2021 14:49
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:how is this true unless you believe that any signaling is manipulation, which is bizarre CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:You are betting woth something you dont own that some one elses asset will lose value. This is immoral as gently caress esp how it encourages you to make sure your bet works out. Exactly this. Predicting it'll lose value isn't making it lose value but the incentive is to make it lose value and obviously people like this don't give a poo poo if they destroy healthy companies (I know GameStop isn't but...) And destroy the livelihoods of tens of thousands of people as long as they make money. "How the stock market operates" is so incredibly divorced from both reality and normally from consequence it bears no resemblance to the mythical "invest in companies to help them grow and make a little money from the risk to your capital" system it's supposed to be. Burn it all down.
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Jan 27, 2021 17:09
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if you're worried about destroying healthy companies you should be much more focused on LBO than short sellers. destroying healthy companies in the name of returns is definitely bad but that's not what usually happens with short selling.
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Jan 27, 2021 17:22
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Just called the leasing office to get added to the garage waitlist, also to ask about reserved parking outside. "Oh, we don't have a waitlist for garages anymore". Oh? What do you have near my building? "We have 5 available in your building, we don't have any outside reserved spaces though. Got a pen? I'll give you a list of the available ones, and you can pick one out"  She gave me a list of 5. There's 12 in the building. That's 42% vacancy of garages in my building alone, when you used to have to wait for one to open up that might be several buildings away.We have one reserved space between us, and it's tied to SO's plate. Ditching that and going to the garage gets us one garage space + the space in front of the garage. Surprise, the economy tanked, and while not many people moved out (I only see a handful of empty apts on their website), a lot of people have ditched their garages. Kinda expensive at $100/mo (vs $35/mo for the one space we currently have + me having to hunt for a parking space for several minutes every time I get home.. was going to drop another $35 on a 2nd parking space), but being able to do brake jobs, oil changes, etc at home will more than make up for the difference. Now I just need to figure out a way to send a signal over wifi from the garage to the apt. The garage I opted for is about 50-75 ft away, so I should have a decent signal there if I plug in an extender in the living room (the wall the TV is on is an external wall and faces in that direction). There's been breakins through the back (man) doors, I'm gonna chuck an old alarm in there and wire up one of the relay outputs to... something (Pi?) to somehow send a text message or some kind of notification over wifi, on top of having a noisemaker. Went with one with an exposed door vs one in a corridor though, and that one actually has a deadbolt instead of a knob lock. At least I can change my own drat oil again. randomidiot fucked around with this message at 18:22 on Jan 27, 2021 |
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Jan 27, 2021 18:01
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Reminder that zero of the people who gamed the libor and crashed the housing market in 2008 ever saw a day in jail. Burn it all down. I wonder if they actually covered their position or only covered part of it and are now lying to try and disperse the feeding frenzy before they're dead.
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Jan 27, 2021 20:12
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kastein posted:Reminder that zero of the people who gamed the libor and crashed the housing market in 2008 ever saw a day in jail. Burn it all down. To your point if they reduce their exposure by i) partially covering their shorts and/or ii) putting up additional collateral by selling other positions/injecting additional liquidity into their accounts, their brokers may allow them to keep their short positions open long enough to not completely lose their shirts. Rationally it's better to take a small loss on your other positions than take a big loss on this one It is also good to note that the short squeeze presents peril as well as opportunity for those doing the squeezing. Ride it too long and the price may deflate - as the saying goes, the market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run...
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Jan 27, 2021 20:28
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I bet you can get the signal the way you said. I added a TPLink mesh system to my house and I got decent speed in my neighbors house across the street. The nearest AP is below the window on that side of the house, not even in the glass or anything. You'll probably have a lot more interference though.
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Jan 27, 2021 20:28
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i am 100% for the destruction of hedge funds and wall street in general. and also all republicans
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Jan 27, 2021 20:32
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:if you're worried about destroying healthy companies you should be much more focused on LBO than short sellers. destroying healthy companies in the name of returns is definitely bad but that's not what usually happens with short selling. With respect to LBOs the underlying issue really is irresponsible lending coupled with mis-priced (unnaturally cheap) capital. The fix? Better bank regulators & regulations...
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Jan 27, 2021 20:36
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b-b-b-but THE FREE MARKET
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Jan 27, 2021 20:41
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 EDIT: https://twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1354493154729332737 https://twitter.com/williamlegate/status/1354500987617218567 jfc Nidhg00670000 fucked around with this message at 21:34 on Jan 27, 2021 |
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Jan 27, 2021 20:47
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Krakkles posted:b-b-b-but THE FREE MARKET B-B-B-BURN IT DOWN
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Jan 27, 2021 20:54
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At this rate my kids college will be paid for by bad investment memes.
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Jan 27, 2021 21:33
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shy boy from chess club posted:The last cool Olds I can think of is the Aurora I think, it had an OHC V8 in the 90s. They used to be the experimental brand but got super bland by the end. The Aurora V8 was neat but a) only in a FWD car (unless you count the Shelby Series One), and b) a Northstar, so not really unique. rdb posted:The 6 cylinder duramax in the 1500. And its got a 150,000 mile interval. And its at the back, and the service procedure calls for removing the transmission to get to it. So its not a driveway job. OK, so not only does that engineer deserve repeated kicks to the crotch, but so does his manager, and anyone else who knew about that design choice and didn't kick him in the crotch for it, and send him back to the drawing board. Or her, I guess. This is a gender neutral kick to the crotch. Why would you not use gears or at least a chain? Not like NVH is an issue on a diesel... CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Watching a bunch of reddit poo poo posters literally destroy a short seller hedge fund is absolutly amazing. I dont get half of the mechanisms they are managing to do this but seeing short sellers take an absolute beating is incredible. They cost the hedge fund 5 BILLION already gently caress what the hell I don't really understand stock market-y things, but anything that fucks over rich jerks that usually gently caress over the rest of us and formerly-viable companies to boot is a good thing in my book. Bravo. fake edit: Thanks for the explanations, ya'll Now I wish I had a few GME stocks, just for fun and to gently caress over the short sellers.
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Jan 27, 2021 21:43
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I literally first heard about this like two or three nights ago and had GME up on Robinhood at $70/share and went “...nah, it’s already risen and dipped twice, surely this will blow up and I’ll lose money.” and plugged my phone in and went to sleep. It was at $120 when I woke up and now it’s double even that. To be fair, most of the people putting up huge numbers on r/wsb are pretty wealthy and don’t give a poo poo about YOLOing $100,000 on a funny bet.
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Jan 27, 2021 21:55
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StormDrain posted:I bet you can get the signal the way you said. I added a TPLink mesh system to my house and I got decent speed in my neighbors house across the street. The nearest AP is below the window on that side of the house, not even in the glass or anything. You'll probably have a lot more interference though. Yeah, I don't think signal will be an issue. Even really low speeds will be fine, it's just gonna be an alarm panel occasionally sending a few packets - and not even directly, it's gonna have to be some kind of hackery tied into it. With the distance involved I don't expect more than maybe 1-2mbit. Which is absolutely overkill for this so long as packet loss isn't an issue. I gotta figure out a way to trigger said texts though, likely through a relay and a Pi or something similar. All I really care about is the alarm being triggered; if I remember right, the alarm has two programmable relay outputs, they can be programmed to trigger in ways such as siren being tripped, trigger if the alarm is disarmed, armed, etc (latch one way if armed, latch another if disarmed, etc; I think the keypad may also have its own relay output, but I may be wrong on that). Takes some bitmapping (you can program it from the keypad 100%), but it's very doable if I have a way to pass that along to something with an IO board that can handle 2 IOs, and try to code my way out of a wet paper bag into some kind of API to send a text. Fun part: the system itself will have to live on the ceiling, since the only power is a ceiling outlet for the garage door opener (I COULD run power along the ceiling and down to the panel, but meh, much harder for someone to smack it if it's up there - rather put the keypad on the wall and everything else a bit harder to reach). edit: well poo poo, office just called and said the garage I wanted is trashed (guess they don't check them at moveout?). Assigned to another one that's at the other end of my building, but my building is only a 2 unit building (the other garage was in the next building, but still a little closer). Guess I'll throw the repeater in the bedroom instead. Not really a fan of the one I wound up with since it's slightly narrower, and has a small vestibule to get to it (2 garages + 4 storage units accessed via a tiny room). Probably wind up throwing some kind of cheap cloud camera up just outside the door. The one I wanted opens into a breezeway that adjoins apartments:  The one I got (2nd choice) has a tiny vestibule with 2 garages + 4 storage rooms:  There's pry marks around the door frames of every door, and the storage room doors are hollow (garage entry doors are steel, thankfully). Frequently find motorcycles parked in there, but with legit tags. Alarm went from "would be nice" to "loving happening" with going into that garage. They can't get me into it today, but told me I can go ahead and start parking in front of it now. Gonna see if I can toss a deadbolt into that door instead of the knob, the Kwikset easy rekey locks are what they use around here anyway. Supposedly better than most of the Kwikset garbage, I'll just rekey it to match my apt key. I guess the upside is... the neighbors I share a bedroom wall with have the garage under my bedroom, and can be.... LOUD. My new garage is under their bedroom. The door openers vibrate the floor pretty well.... (irony: we both work for the same company, different locations tho) randomidiot fucked around with this message at 22:46 on Jan 27, 2021 |
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Jan 27, 2021 21:58
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shy boy from chess club posted:If you could get it for 9k that would seem like an ok deal. I didn't know it was a Northstar though, I though it was some one-off Olds engine. Still cool but not crazy cool. Its a northstar with a smaller bore made specifically for oldsmobile. My budget is more like $5-6k max, although I think that car would appreciate in value at some point going forward. Dead nameplate, period styling, unique. Not all that great of a car, so you won’t get rich off it, but its probably at a low point. Also, crowd tanking a hedge fund is awesome. Where do I sign up? Its had me wondering all day how far this can go - if people can band together enough to trigger robo sells, maybe sink a couple institutions like wells fargo or goldman sachs that ripped us all off in 2008.
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Jan 27, 2021 22:54
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rdb posted:Its a northstar with a smaller bore made specifically for oldsmobile. My budget is more like $5-6k max, although I think that car would appreciate in value at some point going forward. Dead nameplate, period styling, unique. Not all that great of a car, so you won’t get rich off it, but its probably at a low point. I can't imagine that car holding its value personally. It's got so little in the good column. Don't underestimate how much cheaper it can get. My most optimistic is that you'll see them for sale at $5k but posted for a long time, and they actually sell for $3k. I have a hard time picturing who really wants one, period. At some point it depreciates to the value of "a car to get to work", where the buyer is looking for and working car, and will pick a beat up Corolla for 2750 instead.
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Jan 27, 2021 23:38
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