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Moving DVOA discussion into the new thread because I'm obsessed with it.Kalli posted:Yeah. And I mean it sounds stupid, but 20 years ago it was real common for talking heads to say you need to take deep shots for stupid as gently caress reasons instead of converting 3rd down into 1st so you could have 3 more chances to score points. But the thing is that a 40 yard bomb on 3rd and 2 is way more valuable than a three yard run. I assume those two plays aren't treated equally in DVOA, but how does the algorithm weigh the former versus the latter? It's possible (maybe even likely) that DVOA is biased in favor of offenses that convert tons of first downs above all else, but that's almost immaterial at this point anyway. It's loaded with so many opaque calculations that purport to account for game scripts, opponent adjustments, and sometimes even preseason projections, that trying to even meaningfully critique the esoteric percentages it spits out is a fool's errand anyway. It's just an unscientific process where some nerd moved enough toggles on his spreadsheet to finally output the power rankings he wanted. And in spite of all of the highfalutin equations, the explanation for the DVOA rankings always come down to the same concepts that the layperson has talked about for years: this team won by a lot, this team only beat bad teams, and this team had some bad luck with turnovers.
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Nov 30, 2021 06:11
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| # ¿ Apr 27, 2024 03:56 |
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indigi posted:I think DVOA’s position is that a three yard run on 3rd and 2 is a lot more consistent and repeatable than a 40 yard bomb Probably but that's not a fair comparison. There's no obvious 1:1 at all, but you'd theoretically want to find a way to measure the consistency and repeatability of the bomb versus an eight-play, dink and dunk sequence that eventually gains 40 yards. When you're predicating your offense on making high-percentage, small gains, you're also opening yourself up for more setbacks on a per-play basis. Every play is an opportunity for a sack, a holding penalty, a drop, a deflection, or even a turnover. Part of how defenses have neutralized the Chiefs' and Bills' offenses this year is by giving them the easy short stuff and just counting on a mistake or two to stall out the drive. Kalli posted:There are bonus points for extra yards past a first downs, as well as scores or being in the red zone. Because converting lots of 3rd and shorts is definitely more predictive then the occasional 40 yard bomb on 3rd and 2, but if you can get 40 yards on 3rd and 2, you're definitely winning that game more often in the moment. Right, but that all comes down to we have no idea how those two plays are weighed against one another. All FO can do is say "we account for that!", but we don't know by how much. If I posit that DVOA overvalues converting third and short versus being able to consistently generate large chunk plays, there is absolutely no way to check. I believe that FO is actually attempting to operate in good faith in spite of the Pats fan ribbing I do, but there are implicit biases in the formula that we can never tease out because it's just a rat's nest of confounding variables.
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Nov 30, 2021 16:46
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I think Brady has been trying to chase that perfect season ever since 2007 and it's pretty funny that he fucks it up every year.
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Dec 2, 2021 15:59
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It was cool when he took the criticism of his hair to heart and changed his look./cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57692327/usa_today_10425238.0.jpg)
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Dec 2, 2021 16:30
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Read that as "Mike Evans" and was about to celebrate. ANYWAY, might be worth seeing if anyone else on the team may have played fast and loose with the rules.
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Dec 2, 2021 22:07
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The Giants might be this year's most unwatchable team. Their games are such slogs and there's absolutely no intrigue in any of their games outside watching an Eli meltdown on Manningcasts.
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Dec 3, 2021 18:54
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Right, if the Giants were ever healthy and could get offensive coaching in even the 25th percentile, they'd be a ton of fun to watch. Toney, Golladay, Barkley, and even Jones should be the pieces of an incredibly entertaining offense.
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Dec 3, 2021 19:06
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EmbryoSteve posted:I dont think you have seen any of the last like 6 seahawks games. They're horrid on the eyes and bottom 5 but that WFT game had a fun ending.
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Dec 4, 2021 00:09
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That's a shame. Would have been way funnier if there was a more humiliating exit for Ben.
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Dec 4, 2021 22:24
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| # ¿ Apr 27, 2024 03:56 |
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https://twitter.com/mattparrino/status/1468008018507968514?s=21
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Dec 7, 2021 01:26
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