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rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Albino Squirrel posted:

The Oilers absolutely did not deserve to win this game over the Penguins.

The Penguins generating endless amounts of ok to decent shots and not scoring on as many as you would 'expect' has been their MO this year and then giving up a goal on a pretty horrific defensive breakdown.

I really loving wish Sullivan would split up Zucker/Carter/Kapanen. This line does not work. It does not provide offense and it gets scored on significantly more when they're together than apart. It continues to really really really drive me nuts that in years past Sullivan would have tried something different and absolutely loving refuses or to split lines up. Carter sports a 40% gf ratio so far this season. With Jason Zucker it's 15% GF. Kapanen is 65% and with Carter it's 33%. SPLIT THEM UP YOU gently caress YOU CAN'T BE THAT BLIND!!!!!! With that out of the way lets talk Crosby. Holy poo poo :( on the ice for 3 goals against bringing his total to 16 goals against in all situations. At 5v5 Crosby has 9 goals against in 11 games (5 for). Looking at rate metrics Crosby is experiencing 3.25 goals against per 60. Worst on the team. Carter is 2nd worst with 3 (SPLIT THAT LINE UP YOU gently caress).

With that said through half the 2nd the Pens controlled the majority of the game....except they were handing out breakaways and rush chances like candy. I still maintain Kassian got away with a ridiculously blatant interference to spring McDavid for the 2nd goal, but whatever. If you told me that the Pens doubled up a team on shots and chances I'd say they'd probably have a good chance at winning. As it is lately the conversion rates have not been good. Also for a team that was hoping to have some offense from their defense lol.

With Malkin potentially returning in the near future hopefully that forces Sullivan to rethink the lines a bit. Unfortunately it might mean Malkin gets stuck with dogshit combo of Zucker/Kapanen in which case I'll go back to complaining about that. The more I see Sullivan absolutely refuse to juggle the lines or do absolutely anything to add a bit more creativity/speed into the lineup the more likely I think it is that Malkin will look awful between Zucker/Kapanen and they will give up the goals. Carter will get placed between Heinen and Rodrigues (assuming Rust is healthy) down on the '4th' ish line. I think above all else, thought, Friedman should come into the lineup over Ruhwedel to provide some more skating from the back end.

I think this team needs some personnel change(s) and very soon otherwise when Boston gets on a roll and some of the teams with games in hand play the Pens are going to sink. If Hextal can pull of the GM JR special (the first time....not the Reaves or JMFJ signing) I think this team could be competitive for this season. But, at present, it's very difficult to see the Penguins being anything more than this really frustrating hot/cold team as their shooting and conversion rate....basically without Sid being 'superstar' caliber or even 'star' caliber it's pretty much GG. Sure Sid generated more shots and chances against McDavid.....who then proceeded to hang up 2 primary assists and be on the ice for a 3rd.

Edit: A quick note on the Oilers. I know their missing a bunch of defensemen, but beyond McD and Drai and sometimes Nuge this team isn't very good. I know earlier in the season I said I wasn't a believer and they hadn't played particularly tough comp and after watching them last night I'm even less of a believer right now. Their 'system' is to hope McDavid or Drai does something incredible and it ends in a goal. Which is a decent enough strategy they are that good, but come playoff time they're going to get sunk again by lack of depth and having the rest of the team get curb stomped when McDavid isn't on the ice.

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rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Ginette Reno posted:

And yeah the Oilers did look pretty bad but maybe McDavid and Draisaitl can do an 09 Pens and just carry that team on their back to a cup. I'm pretty sure even that version of the Pens had far superior depth to this Oilers team though. Better d, better bottom six for sure. They didn't score a ton outside of Crosby/Malkin, but they definitely controlled play.

That's a great way to view it and definitely could be a successful strategy for the Oilers in the near term. I think outside of the times when McDavid/Drai the Oilers don't seem like they have the necessary players to clog it up and create super low event hockey until the lines rotate back around. This is something Calgary impressed me with though. Gaudreau isn't McDavid level, but Sutter seems to have that team setup to do the above. Grind teams into paste then Johnny comes out and all of a sudden it becomes a bit end to end.

Sid's underlying's are mostly fine. Idk he just doesn't quite seem there. I'm used to seeing him battle for nearly everything and for the 2nd Oilers goal he just kinda takes a whack at it and gives up...where Sid of the past might have kept going?

The insistence on the lines is driving me absolutely loving bonkers. Jason Zucker is, at present, the 3rd highest paid Penguin forward. Zucker has 9 points in 23 games. With the Pens he's fallen from 2.5 pts/60 in all situations and ~2 pts/60 to 1.8 and 1.5 all situations pts/60 and 1.5 - 1.3 pts/60 5v5. His first burst with the Pens where he was with Sid and getting powerplay time he was about where he has always been with Minny. Of LWs making between 5 and 6 million Zucker is 15 of 18 in pts/gm. Jason has 1 more point than Lucic with 3.5 more minutes of play a night. Of all forwards in the 5 to 6 million bracket Zucker is 50th. Defensive side isn't much better. Marino ranks 17th of pts/gme of defenseman being paid between 4 and 5.25 million a year. Matheson 21st. Pettersson and Dumo lower. Now Pettersson and Dumo aren't being paid to 'win' games by their offense and of course there's plenty of bias from me here too. Matheson though was supposed to be the 'offensive dynamo' and while his rate metrics are solid (1 pt per 60 at 5v5) he hasn't had a point in 7 straight. Marino at least is more consistent, but with 4 in 4 to start the season...it's 6 in the last 19...2 of which were in the rout of Montreal.

If the Penguins are looking to be successful they're going to have to get significantly better value out of their $$$$$ than this. This can be achieved either through attempting to change the lines and and/or provide Zucker with some kind of opportunity to succeed. Otherwise you may as well ship him off for a bag of pucks. The defense we've been over a zillion times. It is becoming increasingly frustrating to watch the results pile up over the last 2 seasons+ and absolutely zero attempt to adjust or change loving anything with the forward lines. I wonder if inside the Pens org they do the same thing I had been....log into Nat stat. Sort by xG. Looks good teams fine! That said Mark Friedman has 4 points in 11 games playing 14 minutes a night. Ruhwedel has 1 in 19 with 15:30. My team isn't scoring who should I put in? Dominik Simon? I love him. I do. He's a great capable little hockey man. 17 games 4 points. 1.19 points per 60 5v5....which is more than Sid and just behind Jeff Carter! Drew O'Conner? 5 points in his 12 games. Has 5 in 5 with WBS. On a per 60 basis Heinen has outperformed both Kapanen and Zucker. Mired on the 4th line playing 10:30 a night. Which speaking. I rag on Kapanen a ton. 'But Rex he's putting up points!' I hear you say. Yeah at 5v5 Kapanen is putting up 1.57 points per 60. Even with Zucker going off the age cliff and being a bad fit or whatever he's averaging 1.35 pts/60. Yeah 'awesome' Kasper Kapanen is barely putting 1 more point over 300 minutes than dogshit Jason Zucker. As a final 'lol' for myself. Daniel Sprong is currently putting up as many points per 60 (at 5v5) as Kasperi Kapanen. Lol. Lmao.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Levitate posted:

I think that's something coaches fall into a lot, especially if they're been there awhile and the players have been there awhile...they want to "give the players a chance to play out of it" and will sometimes stick with a lineup for far too long because "it used to work"

Probably a big part of it. It's kind of unfortunate to see Sullivan fall into the same habit. A big part of Sullivan and the Pens being successful was giving players a chance to succeed. Sheary, Rust, and Guentzel being brought up to the big club was as important to Pittsburgh's back to back as the Daley/Bonino/Hagelin trades. It just strikes me as odd that these lines are so set in stone and anyone watching can see it is not working. This is also an org that traded away an extremely productive offensive player for nebulous attitude reasons and then doubled down on that by spending even more assets to acquire a player that doesn't fit their system at all. Like I can't be the only idiot looking at these numbers and outcomes on extremely publicly available sources and coming to these conclusions right? Idk it's kinda baffling.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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bewbies posted:

china does suck though

So does the US what's your point

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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bewbies posted:

protesting china's ongoing human rights abuses is a worthwhile thing to do

Cool and again I will ask...how about the US?

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Funny. PK getting suspended for the thing he's always done.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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El Gallinero Gros posted:

I'm not loving the Calgary trend as of late where they jump out to a lead, blow it, then get the win via shootout. That can't continue in the playoffs. I know there's time to adjust, but it makes me worry that teams are starting to get wise and it's not like this team is offensively deep.

This might seem like humblebragging or whatever to those of you whose teams are struggling but given how surprising Calgary's success is, I'm worried this is the other shoe dropping gradually.

Spreadsheet says Calgary at home are excellent and away not so much. 65% xGF home split and 46% xGF away from home. Whether it's a solvable problem or something innate with Sutter is :shrug:

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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The league and officials made their point and the players have responded by learning their lesson and now we're back to puck over glass being the focus officiating. As god intended.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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code:
Friday Practice Lines
Forwards

Jake Guentzel    -    Sidney Crosby   -   Evan Rodrigues
Jason Zucker     -    Jeff Carter     -   Danton Heinen
Brock McGinn     -    Teddy Blueger   -   Kasperi Kapanen
Zach Aston-Reese -    Drew O’Connor   -   Dominik Simon

Defense
Brian Dumoulin / Kris Letang
Marcus Pettersson / John Marino
Mike Matheson / Chad Ruhwedel

Possible Starting Goalie: Tristan Jarry
It's finally happened. Super ready for these lines to last 25 minutes and then 2 soft Jarry goals before Sullivan reverts back.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Eric the Mauve posted:

Matheson/Ruhwedel is a catastrophe

They are! It is extremely funny too!
code:
TOI/GM All Situations

Letang - 26:13
Marino - 22:25
Dumo - 21:31
Matheson - 18:44
POJ - 18:13
Pettersson - 16:57
Ruhwedel - 15:26
Friedman - 14:10
Riikola - 13:23 
At 5v5 it's Letang ~20ish, Dumo ~18:30ish, Marino ~17:30, Matheson 17:00, Pettersson ~15:30, Ruhwedel ~13:40, and Riikoal/Friedman 12 and less. Letang and Marino eat the majority of powerplay time with 3:10 and 1:30 each. Marino leads the PK with 2:40 followed by Dumo 2:20. Ruhwedel playes 1:40 on the PK per. Friedman shows up with 1:35, but has one of the worst GA/60. Matheson and Petterson basically only show up for 30 seconds each per game on the PK and PP and it's probably towards the end of either so Sullivan can return to his 5v5 pairings. These splits are actually super interesting to me because it illuminates a few different things I hadn't really noticed or thought about too much.

Real quick those things are - 1. Pettersson and Matheson basically only play 5v5. That's it. 2. Pettersson has had his role reduces significantly by Sullivan...and that actually dates back to 2019-20 where Marcus peaked at 19:24 per game. Since he has been reduced to 16:30 and 17 this year. The reduction in usage is even more jarring in the playoffs where Pettersson had 13 minutes of playing time per game. Something to keep an eye out on IMO. 3. Ruhwedel on the PK is a net positive. 4. Marino is really good in the defensive zone but doesn't create a ton of offense.

OK that out the way we truck on. Matheson/Ruhwedel is a disaster indeed. Matheson has been on the ice for 13 GF, Ruhwedel 10, and of those goals together they have 5. Against it's 12 for Matheson, 11 for Ruhwedel, and of those together it's 9! Of every pairing and every stat regardless of who he is with Mike Matheson drags that defender down. So that's fantastic. Unfortunately for Ruhwedel he's basically been stapled to Matheson when Mike was added back into the lineup. Amusingly for the short time it was Friedman/Ruhwedel they both put up some pretty good numbers and I unironically enjoyed Mark Friedman's wild ride of NHL hockey playing. I don't think he's a Schultz replacement, but he seems like he can skate and his work in the offensive zone usually was pretty good. TBH I thought the same of Riikola/PoJ but here we are.

Concluding this ramble - just like the forwards I think Sullivan is trying to force things to work where they really are not. A big part of this probably why they signed Jack Johnson and then traded for Mike Matheson. Whether this is Sullivan wanting this specific style of (bad) player for whatever this 'role' is or him just stubbornly sticking to his process/system I have no idea. The imbalance of the Penguins defense, though, is quite stark and that *might* be where/why Sullivan continues to persist with Matheson specifically. In Marino, Dumo, Pettersson, and Ruhwedel you have 4 players that excel at the defensive side of the game and don't provide a ton of offense (This is only perception for Pettersson though...he's actually top of GF/60 on the team at 5v5....it's a massive over performance however). With Matheson it's allegedly a player that can create/provide offense and break the game open in transition with his skating. The reality is, of course, not the case. Final point I find interesting, Riikola, PoJ, and Friedman all have better expected goals per 60 than all over defensemen on the team. Likely a function of softer competition....but notable to me for a team that isn't putting pucks in the net right now. I think PoJ in for Matheson would be the best 'balance' possible for Sullivan, but I'm going to guess Sullivan views him more as the Marcus type player and less the 'Matheson' type. This move specifically I think provide the least amount of 'changes' required in terms of deployments as well since you're playing PoJ at 5v5 instead of letting him get taken advantage of on the PK. Of Course the likelihood of Sullivan doing something like this is well....low.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Ginette Reno posted:

I'm glad he changed the lines up but still not super thrilled with Guentzel/Crosby/Rodrigues. I'd honestly almost flip Guentzel and Zucker. Guentzel doesn't need Crosby to create his own offense right now, whereas Zucker certainly could use a center that he has any chemistry at all with

Normally I would agree, but Sid needs all the help he can get right now as well and something that has been extremely noticeable is Sid deferring or letting Rodrigues take faceoffs in all zones on the right hand side of the ice. Whether this is to help lesson the load on his wrist or a specific wrinkle that Sullivan is using to allow Sid to try and play make off the draw on the off wing. Carter with Heinen has provided decent (small sample size mind) results when paired together earlier this year as the '1st' line. With Zucker on the 2nd it's hard to say....mostly 'cause Sid's line will get the preferential match ups. That said it's Vancouver tonight and Seattle Monday so if you're trying something new these two are decent teams to work out the kinks against.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Eric the Mauve posted:

It strikes me as the smoking gun that Sid's wrist is hosed.

His shot metrics are wonky, but I would say his wrist has likely been a problem going back to '19-20 and definitely appears to continue to be an issue. Maybe it's Geno/Carter as centers and Sid on the wing....

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Brendan might be radioactive, but probably not in that way...

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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The 'new' look lines for the Pens definitely provided a better visual balance. Carter/Zucker on the spreadsheet had a goal against and were the 2 worst xGF players, however this gets a decent * caveat with them taking on the JT Miller and Boeser for the majority of the night. Something to keep an eye on then if opponents keep trying to take advantage of those 2. They also combined to create a breakaway and I thought their d zone work was pretty solid...Zucker made an excellent play when covering for Dumo early in the 2nd.

Obv I'm going to be mega biased...and it's also 'only' Vancouver anddddddd both 5v5 goals were from Jake and Sid, but I thought Kapanen with Blueger looked good. I'd probably swap ZAR and McGinn tbh though it doesn't matter too much. O'Conner with Simon was pretty good...the coaching staff seems to be doing something extremely specific with Matheson lately and *for now* have managed to make him not do insanely stupid things constantly. Jarry rolls on. Would like very much for Sullivan to stick with these lines for Monday's game and moving forward for a bit. Just missing the 5v5 finish.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Bruce saw it was Philly or Vancouver and chose Vancouver lmao.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Chad Sexington posted:

What the hell even happened to the Isles? Is it just that all their recent acquisitions went bust all at once?

They got older and slower. Unlike years past where Trotz's teams dominated high danger chances with the trade off of less mid/low dangers (making them look 50/50 on chances but decent xG) they are now 46% for this season. The goaltending is roughly league average (instead of lights out as years past) and the shooting % is way down for them. 6.7% in all situations shooting % with 5.6% at 5v5. NHL average is 9.4% and 7.4%. Finally, the rate at which chances the Isles create and give up have both moved in the wrong direction over the last few season, but this season has been a large increase in chances against. From being ~26 for per 60 over the last 4 years...well that's the same. However, chance against have been on the rise...from 25, 27, 27, and then this year 31.3 per 60 with the increase being in high dangers against. Trading Toews was a huge freaking mistake as well and part of their slide on the spreadsheet coincides with that.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Koopa Kid posted:

Speculation that Josh Ho-Sang may be called up to be the Leafs weird 4th line PP specialist now that Spezza's getting suspended, I am very excited for him to make one play and have all of Leafs fandom become insufferable with takes

13 pts in 15 games with 9 being goals....though 3 of those are with the man advantage. I hope he looks good otherwise there are a few posts I wrote that might look silly!

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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With their performance last night the Pens have moved back to where their 5v5 goals 'should' be. This likely means that regardless of how well they play over the next 5 game stretch they will score a total of 5 goals. That said it's a big game on Friday against Washington as the first half of a b2b with the 2nd game coming against Anaheim. 2 more at home against Montreal and Buffalo before a Home and Home split against the Devils...with the Flyers after that. Boston, Toronto, and Ottawa close out December. Anaheim on the back half is going to be difficult. They aren't great and living off of OT Bettman points, but not a complete pushover unlike....Montreal/Buffalo. 5pts from this stretch would be decent enough. Going with L, OT, W, and W. The home and home with the Devils could go a very long way towards solidifying Pittsburgh position in the wild card. 3 outta 4 with a RW would be ideal...I think 4 pts with 2 RW is likely too greedy and the Devils always seem to play the Pens extremely well so wouldn't be surprised to see them get back into the WC hunt with a double over Pitt. Gong show of who knows against the Flyers...going to give it to the Flyers 'cause. Boston game looms as another making or giving ground in the WC race. These two usually play each other pretty well with Boston's (usually) better goaltending showing through and getting the wins. If Toronto can not hand out odd mans like candy to the Pens they'll be a lot more competitive against them....and well Ottawa beat Pitt last time out so what 'should' be a W is a :shrug:. Going with 5pts in the next 4, 2/2 split with the Devils, Loss to Flyers, Loss to Boston, Win over Toronto, and Win over Ottawa. So 11pts from 10 to end of December...40 from 35 going to be quite narrow WC margins going into the New Year especially if CBJ keeps on about where they are. NJ getting a bit of health and goaltending could also start going on a run....plus Boston has games in hand....fun fun fun.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Starsfan posted:

I have seen people in this thread speculate that something about Dave Hakstol's system allows prime scoring chances (especially cross ice one timers that are particularly difficult for goaltenders to save). I think this is kind of bs because when I watch the Dallas Stars they set up like 15 of those a game and 13 of them either miss the net or get heeled and flutter lifelessly into the goaltender's pads. It's not like cross ice one timers are automatic goals.

The more I put it off the more tape piles up and the less likely I am to watch a bunch of it and actually do a write up. I did, though, stay up and watch Pens/Kraken last night and was re-watching the highlights. IMO I maintain that Seattle is very very very poorly structured with bad understanding of what they should be doing when there are system breakdowns. Of which they have lots. Grubby made it 5 minutes and 30 seconds last night before being yoinked. Brief breakdown of these 3:

1. McCann fails on a zone exit. He has options and choose a little flip play to the center of the ice to the on rushing defenseman....who is neither on rushing nor paying attention. Poor gap and positioning by Lauzon leads to 2v1 down low Grubauer tries to block the pass to Zucker who would have had a slam dunk and instead OGs.
- Bad Turnover. Poor control of 3v2 situation from the high slot.

2. Sid wins a offensive zone faceoff. Gourde follows the puck from his inside wing position. Eberle stands mid slot. Guentzel gives a little interference bump on Gourde and follows into a 3 man high umbrella. Letang to Dumo an easy pass. 4 seconds of game clock have ticked away and Eberle has moved 4 feet from where he was on the face off. Dumo stretches the play laterally and makes an easy pass into Guentzel who shades towards Dumo to make an easier pass and one time shot. This is a set play from the Pens. As Jake shoots Sid is attacking from low circle and E Rod is out front. Seattle has 1 defenseman trying to block the shot directly in front of Grubauer and E Rod. Oleksiak is off to the side of the net doing nothing. Puck hits Oleksiak and finds the 5 hole of Grubauer trying to track the puck to the corner. Sid pops up and slams it home.
- Really awful zone coverage off the face off. Entirely too much time and space for the Pens to execute.

3. Starts with a great Zucker forecheck. Engages his man and gets good body position enabling him to disrupt the clear up the boards and allow Carter to also engage. Pettersson with time and space to go D2D. Heinen originally was in the low slot/net front at the beginning of the forecheck has actually cycled up into the high umbrella setup again. Seattle has 3 players low. Donskoi comes off of Heinen to half heartedly engage Petterson. Pettersson to Marino to Heinen. Donskoi looks to his left wondering where the gently caress the center is and beginning to realize that Heinen is about to turn the puck onto the forehand in the high slot. Riley Sheahan was the 2nd Seattle engaged on the boards and might get tangled with Zucker. As it is when Heinen receives the puck Sheahan is 15 to 20 feet away. Puck hits the toe of Sheahan and goes near post instead of far.
- Poor puck retrieval and awful zone coverage leading to another 'bounce'.

Grubby gets bounced and not long after Joey has to make an incredibly good save after a very lax defensive zone play. From there it's just Seattle handing out 2 on 1s like kittens. Guentzel gets a clean one. Carter gets a crazy bounce off Oleksiak after Daccord makes a great save off a 3 on 1. Guentzel's 3rd is a 3 on 2.

Of the original 3 the system the Pens seemed to employ was attacking Seattle through a high umbrella. Whether that's something they noticed on tape or the fluidity of Sullivan's attack is hard to say. The Pens executed it well enough, but my word is Seattle really awful in their own zone.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Eric the Mauve posted:

:actually: if you check your spreadsheet you will see that this is wrong and in fact Seattle is awesome at defense and Hakstol is a Good Coach and it's just that their goalies are all randomly playing terrible.

Having only watched a few Seattle games and having extremely vague recollection of Hakstol Flyers I have a theory that Hakstol's defensive system positions players extremely poorly when they are 'in position' and as Jhet very nicely pointed out this system can be pulled apart fairly easily which leads to 'poor positioning panic' ending in both an inordinate amount of bounces going in, free players to slam home a rebound off of anything and everything, or just old fashioned forcing the goalie to try and make heroic post to post save...oh it went 5 hole. Which, if upon further review, is true... would be actually really neat for some how organizing and creating 'bad luck'.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Jhet posted:

This does jive with them being good at low and medium danger chances and just bad at stopping high danger chances. When they breakdown, they leave big openings that NHL caliber players will be happy to exploit.

DJExile posted:

Yeah the Flyers at their 'best' under Hakstol would limit overall volume of shots but be awful at giving poo poo up in close. It's a relic of old college days and as good as NHL players can pass the puck it can be really easily exploited.

Both of these points gave me something a bit different to look at on the spreadsheet and highlights.

Eric the Mauve posted:

Holy poo poo, it's almost like rigid systems that work in college/youth hockey are easily broken down by players with NHL level skill or something

Also good food for thought. Slapping my own comparison sheet thing together and we're going to take a look at my 3rd favorite hockey the post about.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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https://i.imgur.com/21KeAMl.mp4

HEY HO LETS loving GO The Dave Hakstol is not a good hockey coach spreadsheet addition!

Some basic data from Hakstol's entire NHL coaching career. All things are 5v5 from Natural Stat. Ranks are based off of Chances Against and sorted 'best' (lowest) to worst. Goalie sv% ranks are sorted the same (best sv% down to worst).

code:
Year		Team			xGF%	Rank	SCF/60	SCA/60	Rank	SCF%	SCSV%	Rank	HDCF/60	HDCA/60	Rank	HDCF%	HDSV%	Rank	MDCF/60	MDCA/60	Rank	MDCF%	MDGF%	MDSV%	Rank	LDCF/60	LDCA/60	Rank	LDCF%	LDGF%	LDSV%	Rank	SV%	Rank
2015-2016	Philadelphia Flyers	49.07	18th	23.31	24.54	17th	48.71	88.31	13th	9.68	9.77	13th	49.76	83.19	20th	13.63	14.77	19th	48	49.23	93.24	7th	27.69	26.08	21st	51.49	56.41	98.11	3rd	93.36	2nd
2016-2017	Philadelphia Flyers	50.22	17th	23.26	23.5	11th	49.74	85.52	27th	9.36	9.36	8th	50	80.23	26th	13.9	14.15	10th	49.56	42.25	90.77	23rd	27.6	25.8	23rd	51.68	50	97.01	18th	91.62	26th
2017-2018	Philadelphia Flyers	49.05	20th	23.78	25.27	8th	48.48	87.4	16th	9.64	9.96	9th	49.19	81.48	27th	14.14	15.31	10th	48.01	56.47	92.73	12th	25.43	24.51	9th	50.92	53.19	97.41	7th	92.45	13th
2018-2019	Philadelphia Flyers	48.73	18th	24.67	26.5	19th	48.21	84.89	28th	10.39	10.31	9th	50.18	82.39	18th	14.29	16.19	22nd	46.88	41.38	87.29	31st	24.88	26.92	27st	48.03	39.22	96.71	25th	91.03	28th
2020-2021	Seattle Kraken		49.4	16th	23.38	23.33	1st	50.05	81.58	32nd	9.51	9.17	3rd	50.91	76.92	32nd	13.87	14.16	3rd	49.48	42.86	86.49	31st	22.94	23.38	11th	49.53	36.84	95.04	31st	88.01	32nd
Hot freaking drat not one bit of real live hockey watched and we can already form a whole bunch of thoughts and opinions! And boy howdy do we have some of those.

Hakstol's 1st year is the best goaltending he has ever gotten at the NHL level. To me this tells quite the story....Hakstol comes in and inherits some solid performance from the goalies and manages to get an improvement from the year prior (Philly had 7th best 5v5 sv% in '14-'15) managing to have the 2nd best 5v5 sv% on the year. Unfortunately for the Flyers Steve Mason goes full pumpkin in the playoffs before being yoinked as the starter. Neuvy puts up an extremely valiant effort stopping 103 out of 105 shots winning 2 but gets very little goal support and Philly loses game 6 to Washington 1-0. Not so bad for the first year though.

Year 2 of the Hakstol Flyers era is where we see the patterns emerge. Hak's teams are good at high danger chance suppression with a very consistent sub 10 high dangers per 60 over his 5 years of NHL coaching. Despite this Hakstol's teams rank lower mid-table in terms of xG (on Nat Stat's very basic model) with only 1 season barely above 50%. For all that suppression Hakstol's teams create gently caress and all. We aren't talking about that though so back to where it falls apart. :stare: Wow those high danger sv%s. Even in the best year of goaltending for Hakstol his Flyers manage a lower half 18th of 31 teams. From there it mostly gets worse. Mid and Low danger sv% tell much the same story...a clearly downward trend for Hakstol and his goaltending.

Now we compare what we're seeing here relative to our hypothesis of 'Dave Hakstol's team suppress High Dangers pretty well, but despite that they get scored on at a higher rate than you'd expect.' That definitely looks to be true. However, it isn't just high dangers that Hakstol receives sub-standard goaltending on.....it's basically across the board in all chance situations that the goalies 'underperform' for Hakstol. 3 of the 5 years that Hakstol has been head coach his team's have had some of the absolutely worst goaltending in the NHL. In year 3 there's a resurgence of goaltending, but the majority of that is driven by improvements in low danger and mid danger sv%. High Dangers are just as awful as they have ever been.

TL;DR - The picture all of this paints for me is that Dave Hakstol's system has significant flaws in it which result in massive goalie under-performance, but is not captured in models. This is 'excellent' for a weirdo like me because it means the models aren't 'wrong' it's that we have an outlier of great proportions. With this in hand it's time to watch some highlights and see if there is an identifiable systemic issue leading to these out comes

I still maintain the hypothesis of 'Dave Hakstol's system is very simple and rigid that NHL caliber teams can easily pull it apart leading to panic and complete defensive system collapse ending in a goal against.'

The Factors (I'm thinking)
1. Panic leads to extremely open looks on cross ice passes that force large lateral movements from the goalie leaving large openings for any vaguely NHL grade shooter to hit.
2. Defensive positioning by the D pairing and Center is sub-optimal in shot blocking, rebound control, and man control leading to an inordinate number of 'bounces' finding the net, finding opposing sticks, or finding the goalie, but not in the manner in which that goalie anticipated producing an extremely easy to score rebound.
3. Center and D position easily manipulated to allow high slot utilization creating lots of 3 on 2 or 2v1 or Shooter vs Goalie situations allowing for extremely high danger opportunities with multiple options to play make or shoot.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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GOOD NEWS EVERYONE...I've reviewed and taken notes and some screen shots on the first 14 Kraken games. This has lead me to ask a question of our FAS friends. On the scale of dropping food on the floor to Metalocalypse how 'brutal' would you say the Hakstol era goals against were?

Just a little taste....as a treat


Eric the Mauve posted:

Super pumped for Zucker-Sid-Kap

It'll be Zucker/Sid/E Rod hopefully. Unfortunately it very very likely means Kap back with Carter which is going to blow. Unless O'Conner gets moved up? ZAR? You're probably right though. Idk ?/Carter/Heinen if it is Zucker/Sid/E Rod. Move Matheson down and play PoJ lol.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Arivia posted:

"Hakstol era" did he just get fired or something?

FAS is Flyers Argument Stadium whose mantra 'Fire Hakstol' lasted many a year before transferring to 'fire' basically everyone else before moving to complete abject dejectedness represented by the current moto of 'The Philadelphia are dogshit garbage'. So far though my main takeaway from watching most of Seattle's highlights is they should fire Hakstol immediately.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Jhet posted:

Now, in lower tier football/soccer it seems to happen about once a year lately that someone’s going into administration for unpaid tax bills or something.

This is basically tradition in the 2nd and 3rd tier Italian leagues.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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That was a legitimately an awful Flyers performance. They fired AV and managed to look even worse. Honestly impressed.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Duckman2008 posted:

They couldn’t score. The Mike Yeo experience begins.

I put it in GDT but to repeat - 6 scoring chances total in all situations. 2 high dangers credited on the powerplay. 4 at 5v5. The heat map is woooof. Zero shots inside the house/home plate. Unbelievably bad effort.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Good Soldier Svejk posted:

I just don't get that organization, from top to bottom nothing they've done makes sense as a coherent whole.

Extreme incompetency from top to bottom sums up a lot of it I think.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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OEL is definitely #2.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Hope you don't like your first round picks. Also, after his initial hit ratio he was really bad. I guess Garland for a Matheson would be fine though.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Starsfan posted:

if any coach can make that happen it's Boudreau.. the guy's track record in the regular season is practically unparalleled in recent history. I was so badly wishing for Dallas to pick him up the season after they canned Montgomery.

And yeah.. the Pacific division is once again looking a lot like the weaker division in the weaker conference albeit with a rising Vegas golden knights team. Even if you give Calgary and Edmonton full credit for their hot starts (which I am not so sure on yet), there will be an opportunity for Vancouver to overtake the California teams for a chance at that last wildcard spot.

VGK is going to get healthy and start rolling. Calgary looks good on their splits, but are definitely over-performing due to goaltending. Calgary/EDM/VGK take the Pacific 3 spots. Anaheim has an 11 point gap on Vancouver with the same games played. Dallas is already ahead of Vancouver with 4 games in hand as well. They've been hot of late. Leaving even those 2 out there are 5 teams head with 2+ games in hand. The only chance for Vancouver, IMO, is if all of the Pacific start losing all at once except for the 2 teams at the top of the div. That's the only way I could see them sneaking in which EDM not being able to outscore their defense and goaltending would be extremely funny...it's probably unlikely.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Mike Works posted:

Jokes on you, Rutherford h8ers, we don’t have any draft picks to trade away

Actually the Canucks have 1sts for the next 3 years. They have no 2nd this year but do have the next 2. Winnipeg's 3rd the their own for the following 2 drafts. So buckle up buttercup it could get bumpy.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Nissin Cup Nudist posted:

Does Bettman have a personal stake in the Coyotes? Why is he so invested in Arizona

Hubris.

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Mar 26, 2007

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pseudodragon posted:

Also the alternative to not calling strict offside means giving officials a judgement call on whether something is offsides enough to matter. Do you let it go if it’s an inch offside? What about 3? 5? Which seems like a system that will lead to infinitely more controversial calls.

They could do what the Prem and Euro footy leagues do and let everything 'close' go then VAR it after a goal is scored. (Please don't freaking do this). That said my dumb idiot team won a cup on the back of some extremely marginal offsides calls going their way.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Furnaceface posted:

Me, earlier this season: "Wow this Blackhawks stuff is awful. I think I will watch a team that isnt poo poo. But who...? Oh the Flyers!"

Me, now: "The Philadelphia Flyers are dogshit garbage!"

I didn't say they would be good! I said they would be entertaining. Although if they played like they did the other night it's going to be dire.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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Furnaceface posted:

I struggle to think of the kind of person that would find the current Flyers entertaining!

Could be worse I guess, I almost picked Canucks.

I'm a Penguins fan that lives in the Philadelphia TV market. That likely helps.

Edit: ^^ the above might apply to the AVs as well but that means enjoying a Kroenke team and that isn't allowed.

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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eXXon posted:

Ban these loving sickos for life. Jesus, this is supposed to be family-friendly entertainment. Who even knows more than 10 words of that song?

Torts that you?

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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The Devils are about exactly where I would expect them to be. Competitive'ish, but still a few pieces short. They also had a bunch of goalie injuries.

The Rangers though seem like a team that could collapse a bit at any moment. They're riding some great shooting and incredible goaltending. Either or both of those regress even slightly and they're going to falter some. Fortunately for them the rest of the metro isn't looking great either (other than potentially the Pens getting on a roll).

rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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grack posted:



Hang your heads in shame, Flyers

Jim Benning smiles to himself.

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rex rabidorum vires
Mar 26, 2007

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CBJSprague24 posted:

What's this I hear about MAF MAFfing again?

MAF taught the new kid some veteran moves.

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