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goddamnedtwisto posted:Okay, so applying the most accurate predictor of UK politics - "What is the stupidest possible outcome?" - I'm going to predict that the May Deal fails, No Deal is ruled out, but then the delay gets defeated. This seems honestly the most likely thing to happen at the moment. We resolve to do nothing, when we cannot do nothing. E: 10 March 1977: Astronomers discover the rings of Uranus.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:17
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But there's obviously going to be an impact - every newspaper front page or cut out image used in the news potentially becomes iconic and defining the politician for years to come so simply hammering a candidate with shots of them eating bacon sandwiches or full body Tory power stances will deny them the chance of being taken seriously.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:18
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I mean that outcome basically says that unless there’s a new deal in the rest of March, Article 50 should be revoked, so it’s not as stupid as you make it out to be.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:23
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https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/1104679154275024896?s=19
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Mar 10, 2019 11:30
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Here's a little graphic from the Guardian about the various possible permutations of the upcoming votes.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:33
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Hobo posted:I mean that outcome basically says that unless there’s a new deal in the rest of March, Article 50 should be revoked, so it’s not as stupid as you make it out to be. I think the implicit suggestion is that if they can't agree to an extension they very definitely cannot agree to call it off.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:38
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How do people here rate the Independant Group's chances of surviving the next general elections? Surley as the party of anti-Brexit and not much else, they can only really survive in the horrible Brexit limbo that British politics have been stuck in since 2016, on account of the fact that once Brexit occurs it'll be too late, and if it is cancelled the only issue they're united on becomes a moot point.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:43
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JustaDamnFool posted:How do people here rate the Independant Group's chances of surviving the next general elections? Surley as the party of anti-Brexit and not much else, they can only really survive in the horrible Brexit limbo that British politics have been stuck in since 2016, on account of the fact that once Brexit occurs it'll be too late, and if it is cancelled the only issue they're united on becomes a moot point. They'll have asked the people bankrolling them to find constituencies with marginal seats, where the idea of these clueless twats running for MP isn't immediately met with derision. So I guess be on the look out for some polling with suspiciously leading questions (even for commissioned polls) that ends up with a 15-20% estimated vote share for Chuka et al.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:48
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JustaDamnFool posted:How do people here rate the Independant Group's chances of surviving the next general elections? Surley as the party of anti-Brexit and not much else, they can only really survive in the horrible Brexit limbo that British politics have been stuck in since 2016, on account of the fact that once Brexit occurs it'll be too late, and if it is cancelled the only issue they're united on becomes a moot point. Chuka's apparently popular in his own constituency so he may survive, the others will get slaughtered for sure.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:49
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JustaDamnFool posted:How do people here rate the Independant Group's chances of surviving the next general elections? Surley as the party of anti-Brexit and not much else, they can only really survive in the horrible Brexit limbo that British politics have been stuck in since 2016, on account of the fact that once Brexit occurs it'll be too late, and if it is cancelled the only issue they're united on becomes a moot point. Anti-Brexit is a policy, and they don't 'do' policies, so their chances at the next general election aren't much different than they are today.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:49
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It depends on when the next election is and how long the campaign will be. A snap election now would likely wipe all or most of them out as they aren't actually a political party. The longer they get to organise, fundraise and register as a party, the higher their chances are.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:49
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JustaDamnFool posted:How do people here rate the Independant Group's chances of surviving the next general elections? Surley as the party of anti-Brexit and not much else, they can only really survive in the horrible Brexit limbo that British politics have been stuck in since 2016, on account of the fact that once Brexit occurs it'll be too late, and if it is cancelled the only issue they're united on becomes a moot point. Given how most of the Labour splitters had lost VONCs I suspect they would lose to new candidates if they tried to retain their seats, Sourbry was at risk of losing to Labour already. That assumes they try to hold their current seats, but it's hard to see how they could win elsewhere, since moving seats would rightly be seen as cynical and avoiding accountability from their current constituents.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:50
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Hobo posted:I mean that outcome basically says that unless there’s a new deal in the rest of March, Article 50 should be revoked, so it’s not as stupid as you make it out to be.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:53
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https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1104696309691412480?s=19 https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1104695416891822080?s=19 https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1104696040425443328?s=19
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Mar 10, 2019 11:53
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In addition the success of TIG will also be somewhat dependent on whether they're going to position to split the Labour vote or the conservative vote as this will define the majority of the media's stance towards them when they stop being an entertaining side show
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Mar 10, 2019 11:57
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Westminster Voting Intention (ft. TIG) wasn't a very good band.
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Mar 10, 2019 11:58
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I liked their song (Tinge Man) in Hammersmith Palais.
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Mar 10, 2019 12:02
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i can’t believe jezza is forcing us to do brexit because he hates all the good jews
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Mar 10, 2019 12:06
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Namtab posted:In addition the success of TIG will also be somewhat dependent on whether they're going to position to split the Labour vote or the conservative vote as this will define the majority of the media's stance towards them when they stop being an entertaining side show They're aiming to split the Labour vote. This should be obvious.
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Mar 10, 2019 12:14
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love 2 be an obvious tool of capital
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Mar 10, 2019 12:16
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Jedit posted:They're aiming to split the Labour vote. This should be obvious. are they really going to manage that though doesn't seem like a corbynite election campaign would compete much with the TIGers, should be easy to paint them as tory collaborators still lolling that douglas carswell had more integrity than this lot
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Mar 10, 2019 12:18
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That's a very reassuring poll if it's accurate - TIG bleeding support from Tories and lib dems, not just Labour.
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Mar 10, 2019 12:26
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V. Illych L. posted:are they really going to manage that though It doesn't matter. They're centrists, they will be competing with Labour for the lefty-inclined centrist vote in key marginals. They do not have to do well. They just have to swing the vote by a percentage point or two in those cases, to kill the entire election.
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Mar 10, 2019 12:27
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thespaceinvader posted:It doesn't matter. They're centrists, they will be competing with Labour for the lefty-inclined centrist vote in key marginals. There’s less than a dozen of them too though
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Mar 10, 2019 12:40
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Bardeh posted:Here's a little graphic from the Guardian about the various possible permutations of the upcoming votes. This but in the style of that iceberg picture with porn genres
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Mar 10, 2019 12:43
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Pochoclo posted:This but in the style of that iceberg picture with porn genres Wait what picture?
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Mar 10, 2019 12:43
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lol
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Mar 10, 2019 12:51
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Minds indepedent of any such fetters as reality or logic. Minds totally free, unshacked to this mortal plane, conceiving ideas from universes of fancy and wonder.
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Mar 10, 2019 12:52
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serious gaylord posted:Its a conscious decision. Editors will always veto photos that give off the wrong impression so the fact most mainstream photos of may are showing her with unhinged expressions is trying to drive a point. Oh, I have no doubt it's deliberate. I just find it amusing how blatant (and justified) it is.
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Mar 10, 2019 12:53
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Guavanaut posted:The only time Brits care about dead kids is:
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Mar 10, 2019 12:53
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toiletbrush posted:dead but otherwise perfectly healthy Nominating this for next month's thread title UKMT April: dead but otherwise perfectly healthy
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Mar 10, 2019 13:07
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Enjoying the irony of people who want to shrink the state also calling for National Service to be introduced.
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Mar 10, 2019 13:11
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This just cropped up on Facebook, appears to show coppers beating a man then slamming the door when they realise there's a camera, anyone encountered it before? Person posting it claims it's from Humberside, a force which did suspend six officers around the time this footage was said to have surfaced. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2710245005714903&id=196726563733439
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Mar 10, 2019 13:15
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inkjet_lakes posted:Enjoying the irony of people who want to shrink the state also calling for National Service to be introduced. I was gonna say that was a joke from the video then I remembered its one of their 2 irl policies LOL they are insanely poo poo parodies and as long as they don't lose the election for Labour I'm really enjoying them so far It's entirely possible the media spends years frothing and foaming about how good and important they are then nobody at all votes for them or they split the tory vote instead
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Mar 10, 2019 13:20
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very much enjoying the libs now saying that while it's nice corbyn wants a people's vote now actually isn't a good uhh time because uhh reasons
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Mar 10, 2019 13:20
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Okay, so applying the most accurate predictor of UK politics - "What is the stupidest possible outcome?" - I'm going to predict that the May Deal fails, No Deal is ruled out, but then the delay gets defeated. My prediction: May's deal fails; May is asked by everyone to quit but doesn't; No Deal is ruled out; delay is requested; EU rejects delay For maximum stupidity, May then still doesn't quit and there's a VoNC which fails to remove her
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Mar 10, 2019 13:20
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inkjet_lakes posted:Enjoying the irony of people who want to shrink the state also calling for National Service to be introduced. I like the idea of national service, but more in a "teach everyone the use of explosives" kind of way which is probably not what most conservatives have in mind
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Mar 10, 2019 13:20
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It's pretty funny that the tiggers ended up as somehow even more dead-end lib dems.
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Mar 10, 2019 13:21
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gh0stpinballa posted:does feel very much like corbynism is in retreat at the moment. Assuming it's true that Kuenssberg (or someone above her) is deliberately misinterpreting 'balanced coverage' as 'get a tory on, and get a far right mouthpiece on, and exclude labour,' then why aren't the press office pursuing it? Why aren't they insisting that an authorised labour MP (i.e. not Dianne Abbott, who is a fantastic MP off screen, but doesn't deal well with being put on the spot) is given a place to counterargue? Why aren't they pursuing it in the courts or demanding changes to legislation? Or is it a by product of Corbyn's 'kinder politics' where they try not to rub it in the tories faces when they gently caress up? I mean maybe it's just the Tories being able to throw more ad / sponsor money around, but I rarely hear or see anything directly from Labour on the paid channels or in the press, or on social media, and I follow a lot of leftie sources. It just feels like the news is full of Tory outrages right now and Labour are just not there when it comes to capitalising on it. I'm a huge fan of the policies Corbyn wants to implement, but not the way he's going about it. inkjet_lakes posted:Enjoying the irony of people who want to shrink the state also calling for National Service to be introduced. Bobby Deluxe fucked around with this message at 13:43 on Mar 10, 2019 |
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Mar 10, 2019 13:30
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why doesn't the resurgent left use the courts to address media bias, i thought, credibly.
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Mar 10, 2019 13:31
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