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Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

Squalid posted:

there is no evidence of impending human extinction. AceOfFlames's over there is not hyperventilating about mohawked raiders forcing him to till the soil based a rigorous study correlating hairstyle with global temperature

Atmospheric carbon increasing orders of magnitude faster than it did in the lead up to the P-T extinction is good enough for me to lol into the void at

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StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Squalid posted:

Even worse, racists like Rime use those same fictional stories as a justification for starving and killing the world's poor.
the only good racism is anti human-race-ism

Crazypoops
Jul 17, 2017



"Listen there's no scientific basis in extinction scenarios" *bursts into flames*

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

Crazypoops posted:

"Listen there's no scientific basis in extinction scenarios" *bursts into flames*

*Shovels coal into the fire for good measure*

Admiral Ray
May 17, 2014

Proud Musk and Dogecoin fanboy

Squalid posted:

there is no evidence of impending human extinction. AceOfFlames's over there is not hyperventilating about mohawked raiders forcing him to till the soil based a rigorous study correlating hairstyle with global temperature

what kind of evidence do you think would convince you that humans were facing an extinction level event?

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

Admiral Ray posted:

what kind of evidence do you think would convince you that humans were facing an extinction level event?

for me it would take a few thousands of ICBMs sitting in silos ready to launch at any moment in response to any threat real or imagined.

oh did you mean the climate?

edit typo

Torpor has issued a correction as of 20:00 on Jul 24, 2019

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Stairmaster posted:

ace of flames is gonna end up being the mohawked raider and commiting so many horrific crimes

no such thing as crime once society collapses

may we all aspire for our skulls to be kickass mugs at lord humongous' table

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Car Hater posted:

Atmospheric carbon increasing orders of magnitude faster than it did in the lead up to the P-T extinction is good enough for me to lol into the void at

one of the biggest difficulties with science communication is how to get across the idea of uncertainty. The general public is not well equipped mentally to handle the pain of not knowing, and that makes it really difficult to talk about risk. "Bad things might happen" is difficult for normal people to distinguish from "Bad things WILL happen," and realistically there's a lot of thick skulls you're never going to get it past. Mayor Dave's faith in the futility of human action isn't based on a serious assessment of the probability of specific climate scenarios, it's more like a philosophical position. I'm not much for religion myself but if I have to choose a faith I prefer those that encourage productive behavior.

Admiral Ray posted:

what kind of evidence do you think would convince you that humans were facing an extinction level event?

I already am convinced of that? i don't understand your argument.

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FSHqLaE7Sg

Torpor
Oct 20, 2008

.. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK
because if we’re talking about climate then it looks like a couple hundred nuclear weapons on the Indian subcontinent which is projected to run out of water.

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.
catastrophically bad things happening are hard to imagine

∴ they won't

Minera
Sep 26, 2007

All your friends and foes,
they thought they knew ya,
but look who's in your heart now.

vyelkin posted:

This is from 2017



It's worse now.

The arctic is in a death spiral and once it dies all the weather patterns we've built out lives around in the northern hemisphere die with it. The abrupt change in atmospheric patterns over the last 12 months or so show that we're probably entering the last stages of this death, and we'll get a blue ocean event if not this year then in the next few years, which is a feedback loop that further accelerates warming in general and the death of arctic weather patterns in particular.

And as you say, this is based on emissions from decades ago. We've already locked in future emissions that guarantee this would continue to happen even if we stopped all CO2 emissions tomorrow. It's happening whether we like it or not, and it's happening decades earlier than predicted.

instead of looking at it as "remaining ice" look at as "ice successfully melted"

number go up baby!

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

The Protagonist posted:

catastrophically bad things happening are hard to imagine

∴ they won't

:hai: number go up forever

Admiral Ray
May 17, 2014

Proud Musk and Dogecoin fanboy

Squalid posted:

I already am convinced of that? i don't understand your argument.

These posts come off as dismissing the possibility of climate change causing our extinction:

Squalid posted:

These two posts together nicely illustrate why I felt it worthwhile to make the point that there's no scientifically grounded argument for human extinction scenarios. People like AceOfFlames literally have panic attacks thinking about purely fictional depictions of the end of the world. Even worse, racists like Rime use those same fictional stories as a justification for starving and killing the world's poor. Like Yinlock pointed out there's nothing productive in these misanthropic fantasies, and we shouldn't mistake eschatology for climate science. Just because bad things are possible doesn't make them inevitable.

Squalid posted:

there is no evidence of impending human extinction. AceOfFlames's over there is not hyperventilating about mohawked raiders forcing him to till the soil based a rigorous study correlating hairstyle with global temperature

Complications
Jun 19, 2014

why are you attempting earnest engagement with an obvious troll?

Rectal Death Adept
Jun 20, 2018

by Fluffdaddy

Minrad posted:

instead of looking at it as "remaining ice" look at as "ice successfully melted"

number go up baby!

We have always been at war with solid water.

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

Rectal Death Adept posted:

We have always been at war with solid water.

Snake yelling liquid.flv

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Admiral Ray posted:

These posts come off as dismissing the possibility of climate change causing our extinction:

don't get me wrong, extinction is pretty implausible in the next century. The only plausible scenarios I can think of involve rendering the atmosphere unbreathable for macrovertibrates. There's not even really any plausible mechanism by which nuclear war could cause human extinction.

The crux of the issue is we face a world full of uncertainty and without psychohistory it is impossible to predict where fate will take us. In this circumstance anyone picking one of the many possible outcomes and declares it definite and certain is making a leap of faith. If we have to pick something to have faith in I choose mankind. Mankind might not deserve it but what else do we have?

Complications posted:

why are you attempting earnest engagement with an obvious troll?

Sometimes I wonder what it is people like you think trolling is. "Your fears of being brutalized by Lord Humongous are based on films and not science," Clearly a bad faith troll.

Squalid has issued a correction as of 19:59 on Jul 24, 2019

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.

Squalid posted:

"Your fears of being brutalized by Lord Humongous are based on films and not science,"

This may astonish you, but these are largely lighthearted positions held in jest to add levity to a reality which will turn out far, far worse

Complications
Jun 19, 2014

Squalid posted:

Sometimes I wonder what it is people like you think trolling is. "Your fears of being brutalized by Lord Humongous are based on films and not science," Clearly a bad faith troll.
"Why do you consider someone who changes position every two posts an obvious troll?"

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!

Squalid posted:

don't get me wrong, extinction is pretty implausible in the next century. The only plausible scenarios I can think of involve rendering the atmosphere unbreathable for macrovertibrates. There's not even really any plausible mechanism by which nuclear war could cause human extinction.

Limiting consideration to the next century when the long term effects will linger for tens of thousands of years seems like downplaying the urgency of change

JohnnySavs
Dec 28, 2004

I have all the characteristics of a human being.


Had some free time at work, so I ran the Area/Volume ratio for Arctic ice based on the Area Data and Volume Data. This would essentially be a proxy for some kind of Ice:Air radiative index, right? No surprise it's doubled in 30 years.

It's not apples-to-apples since the remaining ice is at higher latitudes (so less incoming solar energy), but it's pretty stark. Is there a reason I haven't seen a chart like this, despite reading these threads for years?

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Torpor posted:

because if we’re talking about climate then it looks like a couple hundred nuclear weapons on the Indian subcontinent which is projected to run out of water.

This is my major concern, yeah.

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Maybe the resultant nuclear winter from the water wars will stop global warming.

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
squalid's not a troll he's an irl liberal that got lost and wound up in a cspam thread and has no idea why strangers keep flicking his ear and pantsing him. he's earnest posting that nonsense.

unlike us, who are shitposting in earnest

The Protagonist
Jun 29, 2009

The average is 5.5? I thought it was 4. This is very unsettling.
Nuclear dimming effects not as strong as hoped, time is a flat circle.

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
I played sim earth and iirc the way you get sentient robots is to cause a nuclear winter during the information age so let's get on that.

tiberion02
Mar 26, 2007

People tend to make the common mistake of believing that a situation will last forever.

Squalid posted:

don't get me wrong, extinction is pretty implausible in the next century. The only plausible scenarios I can think of involve rendering the atmosphere unbreathable for macrovertibrates. There's not even really any plausible mechanism by which nuclear war could cause human extinction.

The crux of the issue is we face a world full of uncertainty and without psychohistory it is impossible to predict where fate will take us. In this circumstance anyone picking one of the many possible outcomes and declares it definite and certain is making a leap of faith. If we have to pick something to have faith in I choose mankind. Mankind might not deserve it but what else do we have?


Sometimes I wonder what it is people like you think trolling is. "Your fears of being brutalized by Lord Humongous are based on films and not science," Clearly a bad faith troll.

Curious - if only 99.95% of humans died off before 2100, would you consider that an 'extinction'? Or is this a 'technically, extinction means 100% of the population and no less' situation?

Nuclear war is in fact a mechanism by which we can cause human extinction, and pretty easily at that. (and not the only one).

I choose to have faith in the sun, not mankind.

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

tiberion02 posted:

Curious - if only 99.95% of humans died off before 2100, would you consider that an 'extinction'? Or is this a 'technically, extinction means 100% of the population and no less' situation?

Nuclear war is in fact a mechanism by which we can cause human extinction, and pretty easily at that. (and not the only one).

I choose to have faith in the sun, not mankind.

0.05% of the human population is still over 350 million, or the entire population of the United States. That's nowhere near extinction. That is in fact fewer individuals than many species on the planet have which are not extinct or even endangered.

the bitcoin of weed
Nov 1, 2014

Addamere posted:

0.05% of the human population is still over 350 million, or the entire population of the United States. That's nowhere near extinction. That is in fact fewer individuals than many species on the planet have which are not extinct or even endangered.

you might wanna check your numbers here

0.05% of 8 billion is 4 million, which is certainly a shitload of deaths but that leaves you with roughly the human population of 10,000 BC. the question in the long term is whether the various mechanisms we've set off will be able to sustain animal life at all in the few hundred years after that

the bitcoin of weed has issued a correction as of 20:46 on Jul 24, 2019

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

the bitcoin of weed posted:

you might wanna check your numbers here

yeah, im a dumbass who did quick math and punched in 5% not 0.05% lol

it's still 3.5 million tho

the human species has been much closer to extinction than that number, but several order of magnitude

i think at one point it's estimated we were down to 2,000 to 5,000 individuals?

Admiral Ray
May 17, 2014

Proud Musk and Dogecoin fanboy

Addamere posted:

0.05% of the human population is still over 350 million, or the entire population of the United States. That's nowhere near extinction. That is in fact fewer individuals than many species on the planet have which are not extinct or even endangered.

3.5 million, still plenty of folks to repopulate the planet

ikanreed
Sep 25, 2009

I honestly I have no idea who cannibal[SIC] is and I do not know why I should know.

syq dude, just syq!

the bitcoin of weed posted:

you might wanna check your numbers here

Yeah it's actually just the population of Oregon, not the us

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"

Admiral Ray posted:

3.5 million, still plenty of folks to repopulate the planet

What planet?

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

The one orbiting Sol at approximately 149.6 million km

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"
Place sucks rear end. Total poo poo!!

Perry Mason Jar has issued a correction as of 21:00 on Jul 24, 2019

Minera
Sep 26, 2007

All your friends and foes,
they thought they knew ya,
but look who's in your heart now.

Addamere posted:

the human species has been much closer to extinction than that number, but several order of magnitude

i think at one point it's estimated we were down to 2,000 to 5,000 individuals?

the chokepoint thing is a myth, and a key difference between humanity of the past tens of thousands of years and the ones of the future is that the ones of the future will be living on hell earth with hypercanes and no animal population and a lack of useful foods to farm. that's the part where extinction kicks in.

Addamere
Jan 3, 2010

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Minrad posted:

the chokepoint thing is a myth, and a key difference between humanity of the past tens of thousands of years and the ones of the future is that the ones of the future will be living on hell earth with hypercanes and no animal population and a lack of useful foods to farm. that's the part where extinction kicks in.

Preaching to the choir. I think we're doomed.

Oxxidation
Jul 22, 2007

Addamere posted:

Preaching to the choir. I think we're doomed.

lollin at the succ thread freaking out at the planet politely informing them better things aren't possible

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Minera
Sep 26, 2007

All your friends and foes,
they thought they knew ya,
but look who's in your heart now.

Addamere posted:

Preaching to the choir. I think we're doomed.

probably lol

the one saving grace is that nature is surprisingly resilient and a huge reduction in the human population and a sudden stop to pollution may be enough for a whole bunch of animal and plant populations to suddenly bounce back, even in a more hostile environment thanks to climate change. that would be the part that might save whatever lingering human remnants still exist.

but hoping for that future is about as pointless as hoping a meteor skims the planet just close enough it bounces a bunch of excess co2 into space or something.

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