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JcDent
May 13, 2013

Give me a rifle, one round, and point me at Berlin!
Children join pre-dreads in the "involuntary mine-clearing" category.

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P-Mack
Nov 10, 2007

Tab8715 posted:

Is there such a thing as military without a county?

I’m curious how to define terrorists vs. the military of another country.

Or how do governments decide this isn’t the government of a country but just a bunch of terrorists that happen to be there physically.

Knights of St. John would probably be the closest thing to a sovereignty with no territory in a strict legal sense, and there was a post a while back about how that was used post WWII as a legal fig leaf for reconstituting the Italian air force.

As a practical matter the definition is usually whatever's most convenient to the government making the distinction.

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

Tab8715 posted:

Is there such a thing as military without a county?

I’m curious how to define terrorists vs. the military of another country.

Or how do governments decide this isn’t the government of a country but just a bunch of terrorists that happen to be there physically.

It's a nebulous question that doesn't really have a good answer, but mostly seems to depend on diplomatic recognition. The Taliban controlled the majority of Afghanistan before they were overthrown by the War on Terror, but they were considered an illegitimate terrorist group by all but like 3 countries. Meanwhile, the US initially refused to recognize the People's Republic of China but they eventually established enough control and stability of China as a nation that they received increasing recognition (including from first world countries and American allies like Canada and Austria) until the UN finally gave them official recognition as the legal government in 1971.

Phanatic
Mar 13, 2007

Please don't forget that I am an extremely racist idiot who also has terrible opinions about the Culture series.

chitoryu12 posted:

I'm going to suggest that they didn't do that purely because it's such a fanciful "evil empire" narrative that it sounds like it came from cheap fiction.

Well, it's a thing that was repeated from both the right (Reagan, Tom Clancy) and the left (HRW, UNCHR, Mother Jones):

https://www.nytimes.com/1985/12/10/opinion/soviet-toys-of-death.html

quote:

Indeed, having grown skeptical of Presidential anecdotes, some Americans may wonder if Ronald Reagan was talking through his evil-empire hat when he accused Russians of sowing insurgent areas with bombs disguised as toys. The evidence isn't anecdotal. The evil is real.

It lies exposed in a report to the United Nations Commission on Human Rights. This inquiry, the first ever by the U.N. into abuses charged against a Communist state, seems to have been scrupulously conducted by an Austrian legal expert, Felix Ermacora. Barred from Afghanistan, he gathered incontrovertible testimony of the slaughter of civilians from Afghans who fled to Pakistan.

The report asserts: ''The most horrible type of incident was that caused by the explosion of anti-personnel mines and especially of children's 'toys.' Many witnesses testified that children had been very seriously wounded, having their hands or feet blown off, either by handling booby-trap toys they had picked up along the roadway, or by stepping on them. . . .

''The types of booby-trap toys encountered include those resembling pens, harmonicas, radios or matchboxes, and little bombs shaped like a bird. This type of bomb, consisting of two wings, one flexible and the other rigid, in the shape and colors of a bird, explodes when the flexible wing is touched.

And this is still repeated as true today:

https://www.mei.edu/publications/afghanistans-children-tragic-victims-30-years-war

quote:

Soviet aircraft also dropped a variety of “toy” bombs on Afghan villages and rural fields — mines and bombs made to look like toys — which maimed many children.

But did it happen? I'm thinking not.

Phanatic fucked around with this message at 16:14 on Sep 20, 2019

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

That exact same shape is used by the BLU-43 Dragontooth, which were in use in the 1960s and 1970s. The shape provides drag that allows the mine to land softly without needing a parachute. It would be like saying that the identical color between Humanitarian Daily Rations and cluster bomb munitions was an intentional attempt to kill civilians, rather than two sides of the same organization not talking to each other.

The way they describe the "bird bomb" indicates that the report is likely taking terrified civilians who don't know much about the technology in use at face value. The PFM-1 looks nothing like a bird unless you're a 5-year-old who just grabs cool stuff thinking it's a toy, and your dad sees you pick it up from 40 feet away. Chances are the rest of those bombs don't "look like matchboxes" but just bear a vague resemblance by virtue of being a small rectangle.

chitoryu12 fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Sep 17, 2019

Arquinsiel
Jun 1, 2006

"There is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women, and there are families. And no government can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first."

God Bless Margaret Thatcher
God Bless England
RIP My Iron Lady

MrYenko posted:

The problem with the “new jet every five years” approach isn’t the aerospace industry being incapable of delivering on those kind of timetables; The problem is the USAF being the customer. The federal government is no longer capable of working on those sorts of timelines, because even a simple program decision cannot be made in a timely manner.

Hell, I’d be surprised if the USAF could agree on a specification for the first round of new jets in less than five years, even if you started counting from today. It’s been eight years since the last Raptor was built. They’re still arguing about what shape the loving specification program will take for the next fighter.
Presumably the idea is to kick off a spec every five years, so that you have a long lead-in time, but then a new fighter appears every five years after the first. Even if this takes 10-15 years before the first results are deployed it's still going to be faster and more incremental than the current method.

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

Also, there's a good suggestion that the PFM-1s were green not because they were intentionally made to look like toys, but because the stocks they used were designed for use in Europe where they would be naturally camouflaged.

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Tab8715 posted:

Is there such a thing as military without a county?

I’m curious how to define terrorists vs. the military of another country.

Or how do governments decide this isn’t the government of a country but just a bunch of terrorists that happen to be there physically.

Can you rephrase this question? It doesn't really make sense. We usually refer to the armed forces of a state as the state's military. No state, no military.

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese
Has anyone talked about how dumb the Midway movie looks yet

I'm really not looking forward to the inevitable Roland Emmerich comic relief character. Also I couldn't see a casting for Jimmy Thach :wtc:

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

MikeCrotch posted:

Has anyone talked about how dumb the Midway movie looks yet

I'm really not looking forward to the inevitable Roland Emmerich comic relief character. Also I couldn't see a casting for Jimmy Thach :wtc:

Here's the latest trailer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9laReRAYFk

It's been a while since I read Shattered Sword so evaluate these claims in the trailer:

"Pearl Harbor was the worst intelligence failure in American History"

"We think the target is Midway"
"Washington disagrees"
"Then Washington is wrong"

Also is that dogfighting airbrake maneuver even possible in a Dauntless? Or any plane at all.

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!

Phanatic posted:

Well, it's a thing that was repeated from both the right (Reagan, Tom Clancy) and the left (HRW, UNCHR, Mother Jones Soviet aircraft also dropped a variety of “toy” bombs on Afghan villages and rural fields — mines and bombs made to look like toys — which maimed many children.):

https://www.nytimes.com/1985/12/10/opinion/soviet-toys-of-death.html


And this is still repeated as true today:

https://www.mei.edu/publications/afghanistans-children-tragic-victims-30-years-war


But did it happen? I'm thinking not.

Archive.org turns up a newspaper article asserting that the toy bombs are an example of mujahadeen media manipulation, and never existed.


https://archive.org/details/azu_acku_serial_ds371_2_a34d_v19_n1

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:

Can you rephrase this question? It doesn't really make sense. We usually refer to the armed forces of a state as the state's military. No state, no military.

The background is the Houthi’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. Reading about it, I think it’s the most effective military operation since much in the allied commando raid on the Nazis Uranium Research Facility.

But while debating I was told that no, the most successful attack was 9/11 but I dispute that AQ classification as a military or that’s a military operation.

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.

zoux posted:

Here's the latest trailer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9laReRAYFk

It's been a while since I read Shattered Sword so evaluate these claims in the trailer:

"Pearl Harbor was the worst intelligence failure in American History"

False. The US knew a Japanese attack was coming, they just didn't know exactly where: they were expecting an attack against the Philippines or other targets in the Western Pacific. They were not expecting Japan to attack everything on the menu and then Pearl for funsies. Pearl wasn't considered a likely target, and the Japanese success in approaching undetected was down to good chunk of luck, not unlike the Doolittle Raid going the other direction.

quote:

"We think the target is Midway"
"Washington disagrees"
"Then Washington is wrong"

False. The US knew drat well that Midway was the target, courtesy of a fun little stratagem: they arranged an unencrypted radio broadcast in the open from Midway claiming that the island's desalinization plant was broken. Lo and behold, intercepts recorded the IJN ordering a fresh water tanker to join the invasion force.

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!

Tab8715 posted:

The background is the Houthi’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. Reading about it, I think it’s the most effective military operation since much in the allied commando raid on the Nazis Uranium Research Facility.

But while debating I was told that no, the most successful attack was 9/11 but I dispute that AQ classification as a military or that’s a military operation.

well, that's a lot of dubious hot takes

sullat
Jan 9, 2012

zoux posted:

Here's the latest trailer:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9laReRAYFk

It's been a while since I read Shattered Sword so evaluate these claims in the trailer:

"Pearl Harbor was the worst intelligence failure in American History"

"We think the target is Midway"
"Washington disagrees"
"Then Washington is wrong"

Also is that dogfighting airbrake maneuver even possible in a Dauntless? Or any plane at all.

Sounds like they're confusing Pearl Harbor/ Midway with 9/11

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

Tab8715 posted:

The background is the Houthi’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. Reading about it, I think it’s the most effective military operation since much in the allied commando raid on the Nazis Uranium Research Facility.

But while debating I was told that no, the most successful attack was 9/11 but I dispute that AQ classification as a military or that’s a military operation.

a lot going on here and i would like to help you sort of organize it better

0) I presume regarding the commando raids you are talking about the counter-heavy-water operations but if not please do clarify.
1) what, in your mind, determines the "effectiveness" of a military operation? why is the operation you cite considered effective? why do you consider the Houthi attack effective?
2) what do you think differentiates a "military operation" from a "terrorist operation"? does the distinction matter?
3) why do you consider the Houthis a military and AQ not a military?

MikeCrotch
Nov 5, 2011

I AM UNJUSTIFIABLY PROUD OF MY SPAGHETTI BOLOGNESE RECIPE

YES, IT IS AN INCREDIBLY SIMPLE DISH

NO, IT IS NOT NORMAL TO USE A PEPPERAMI INSTEAD OF MINCED MEAT

YES, THERE IS TOO MUCH SALT IN MY RECIPE

NO, I WON'T STOP SHARING IT

more like BOLLOCKnese

sullat posted:

Sounds like they're confusing Pearl Harbor/ Midway with 9/11

THIS VETERANS DAY WEEKEND

the Dauntless maneuver was stolen from Red Tails and no, it's not possible there either. Though an empty Dauntless could tangle with Zeroes adequately when in formation (just not as the movie depicts)

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

The thumbnail of Nick Jonas manning the tailgun in a Devastator really says it all.

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.

sullat posted:

Sounds like they're confusing Pearl Harbor/ Midway with 9/11

I think they don't give much of a poo poo about the real history and want to tell their idea of a dramatic story. Instead of focusing on how mind-bogglingly absurd the entire Japanese strategic processes leading to Midway were. A good Midway movie could have the makings of a real good black comedy, Japan losing the carriers (and a heavy cruiser) in a pointless battle that could never win what Japan hoped for on a strategic level and was borne of a pants-on-head insane strategic vision planned and promulgated by a martinet.

Schadenboner
Aug 15, 2011

by Shine

Tab8715 posted:

The background is the Houthi’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure. Reading about it, I think it’s the most effective military operation since much in the allied commando raid on the Nazis Uranium Research Facility.

But while debating I was told that no, the most successful attack was 9/11 but I dispute that AQ classification as a military or that’s a military operation.

I guess I'd separate an insurgency (Houthis) who have a concept of a state or national liberation versus terrorists (AQ) who lack such a concept.

But of course you could well argue that AQ had a well developed state-idea, it's just a pre-modern caliphate?

:shrug:

FrangibleCover
Jan 23, 2018

Nothing going on in my quiet corner of the Pacific.

This is the life. I'm just lying here in my hammock in Townsville, sipping a G&T.

JcDent posted:

Children join pre-dreads in the "involuntary mine-clearing" category.
Are Children Obsolete?

Tab8715 posted:

...the most effective military operation since much in the allied commando raid on the Nazis Uranium Research Facility.
I'm interested by this. Had the Heavy Water Raids not come off and German Heavy Water production continued unimpeded, what would the effect on the war have been in your opinion?

Cythereal posted:

I think they don't give much of a poo poo about the real history and want to tell their idea of a dramatic story. Instead of focusing on how mind-bogglingly absurd the entire Japanese strategic processes leading to Midway were. A good Midway movie could have the makings of a real good black comedy, Japan losing the carriers (and a heavy cruiser) in a pointless battle that could never win what Japan hoped for on a strategic level and was borne of a pants-on-head insane strategic vision planned and promulgated by a martinet.
I am super loving here for The Death Of CARDIV 1

Phanatic
Mar 13, 2007

Please don't forget that I am an extremely racist idiot who also has terrible opinions about the Culture series.

Cythereal posted:

False. The US knew a Japanese attack was coming, they just didn't know exactly where: they were expecting an attack against the Philippines or other targets in the Western Pacific. They were not expecting Japan to attack everything on the menu and then Pearl for funsies. Pearl wasn't considered a likely target, and the Japanese success in approaching undetected was down to good chunk of luck, not unlike the Doolittle Raid going the other direction.

None of that seems incompatible with Pearl being the biggest intelligence failure in American history. Why weren't we expecting an attack on Japan? Why were we expecting attacks instead on other targets in the Western Pacific, etc. etc. US intelligence failed to detect, for example, the Japanese test programs that they engaged in to come up with torpedoes that would work in the shallow waters of the harbor. US radar picked up Japanese aircraft, and assumed that they were B-17s. These were all misapprehensions that didn't just spring out of whole cloth, they were the result of things like not having any HUMINT assets in Japan, low priorities being placed on cryptanalysis (David Khan wrote a good article on this), fairly racist attitudes towards the Japanese, etc.

It's entirely fair to describe Pearl as an intelligence failure, because it was. "Biggest ever" is a matter of opinion, and I don't think you can just say "False."

Hunt11
Jul 24, 2013

Grimey Drawer

Cythereal posted:

I think they don't give much of a poo poo about the real history and want to tell their idea of a dramatic story. Instead of focusing on how mind-bogglingly absurd the entire Japanese strategic processes leading to Midway were. A good Midway movie could have the makings of a real good black comedy, Japan losing the carriers (and a heavy cruiser) in a pointless battle that could never win what Japan hoped for on a strategic level and was borne of a pants-on-head insane strategic vision planned and promulgated by a martinet.

That feels like the best way to handle World War II when it comes to the Axis powers.

Schadenboner
Aug 15, 2011

by Shine

MikeCrotch posted:

THIS VETERANS DAY WEEKEND

the Dauntless maneuver was stolen from Red Tails and no, it's not possible there either. Though an empty Dauntless could tangle with Zeroes adequately when in formation (just not as the movie depicts)

Armistice Day.

:mad:

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.

Phanatic posted:

None of that seems incompatible with Pearl being the biggest intelligence failure in American history. Why weren't we expecting an attack on Japan? Why were we expecting attacks instead on other targets in the Western Pacific, etc. etc. US intelligence failed to detect, for example, the Japanese test programs that they engaged in to come up with torpedoes that would work in the shallow waters of the harbor. US radar picked up Japanese aircraft, and assumed that they were B-17s. These were all misapprehensions that didn't just spring out of whole cloth, they were the result of things like not having any HUMINT assets in Japan, low priorities being placed on cryptanalysis (David Khan wrote a good article on this), fairly racist attitudes towards the Japanese, etc.

It's entirely fair to describe Pearl as an intelligence failure, because it was. "Biggest ever" is a matter of opinion, and I don't think you can just say "False."

We were expecting attacks on other targets in the Western Pacific because of basic strategic realities for Japan. Japan's dreamed of empire could not tolerate the existence of a strong American presence in the western Pacific, as exemplified by the Philippines. Given the course and politics of Japan's leadership, a Japanese attack on American holdings in the Pacific during the early to mid 20th century was inevitable and the US was preparing for it.

As it happens, US intelligence expectations concerning the probable Japanese attack were right on the money in many respects. They didn't foresee the Pearl Harbor attack, true, but they did foresee many of the other Japanese invasions during the initial phase of the war. Also true, the US did not appreciate the range and striking power of grouped fleet carriers - no one did at the time besides Japan, and that's one reason why Japanese aircraft on radar were mistaken, that capability was simply not recognized or appreciated. The US was not expecting Japan to be capable of launching a substantial attack against Pearl Harbor at the war's outset because the capability of the carrier group was still new to the study and practice of war. They were expecting Japan to attack targets closer to Japan, with more forces than just carriers, and they were right. Just, they were wrong to believe that's all Japan would do in the initial phase.

But I wouldn't call it one of the biggest intelligence failures ever, far from it. The generalities of what was coming were known, there were errors and mistakes with the specifics.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

What are the biggest US intel failures (besides Iraq)

Jobbo_Fett
Mar 7, 2014

Slava Ukrayini

Clapping Larry

zoux posted:

Also is that dogfighting airbrake maneuver even possible in a Dauntless? Or any plane at all.

At the end of the trailer? Just looks like he stalls himself out, with the help of the airbrakes. Doesn't look like he had a lot of energy to begin with, but Hollywood movie magic is harder to discern when trailer clips are so short.


So, that maneuver specifically, yes, but its not "flip a switch and immediately lose all speed", he just kills the throttle.

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.

zoux posted:

What are the biggest US intel failures (besides Iraq)

Afghanistan. :v:

The intel failure regarding Pearl Harbor mainly came down to two things: the US was expecting Japan to attack US possessions close to the empire's existing holdings, not launch a strike halfway across the Pacific, and they were expecting that restriction in large part due to military leadership not appreciating the range, speed, and striking power of a carrier task force. No one really did at the time outside of Japan, the people who came up with the idea. It was a new weapon that most of the world was still figuring out how to use, and Japan's strategic doctrine meant that their ships and planes were built for range, speed, and striking power (with severe tradeoffs, mind). At the war's start, it was a peerless weapon in the world.

The Battle of Midway is a case study in how you manage to lose such a weapon - namely, through mind-boggling arrogance and failing to properly maintain that weapon in the face of an adapting enemy that's increasingly coming to grips with how to fight that weapon effectively.

Polyakov
Mar 22, 2012


The iranian revolution was a pretty big gently caress up to not see coming.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


FrangibleCover posted:

I'm interested by this. Had the Heavy Water Raids not come off and German Heavy Water production continued unimpeded, what would the effect on the war have been in your opinion?

From what I remember over the whole situation, none. The Nazis weren’t going to right direction in uranium enrichment so in the end it wouldn’t have mattered but at the time it was definitely a real concern.

Fangz
Jul 5, 2007

Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!
If these filmmakers wanted an US error putting the US navy in an underdog position, they should just do the Battle off Samar...

zoux posted:

What are the biggest US intel failures (besides Iraq)

trump...

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.

Fangz posted:

If these filmmakers wanted an US error putting the US navy in an underdog position, they should just do the Battle off Samar...

Or Guadalcanal.

Phanatic
Mar 13, 2007

Please don't forget that I am an extremely racist idiot who also has terrible opinions about the Culture series.

Cythereal posted:

The intel failure regarding Pearl Harbor mainly came down to two things: the US was expecting Japan to attack US possessions close to the empire's existing holdings, not launch a strike halfway across the Pacific, and they were expecting that restriction in large part due to military leadership not appreciating the range, speed, and striking power of a carrier task force.

This seems to be a description of the intelligence failure, not an explanation of it. If you expect a thing, intelligence is superfluous because you already expect it. The purpose of intelligence is to give you notice of things you don't expect.

What would be some other candidates for the title of biggest intelligence failure ever? US-limited:

9/11
Entry of Chinese into the Korean War
Soviet penetration of the Manhattan Project

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Cythereal posted:

Afghanistan. :v:

The intel failure regarding Pearl Harbor mainly came down to two things: the US was expecting Japan to attack US possessions close to the empire's existing holdings, not launch a strike halfway across the Pacific, and they were expecting that restriction in large part due to military leadership not appreciating the range, speed, and striking power of a carrier task force. No one really did at the time outside of Japan, the people who came up with the idea. It was a new weapon that most of the world was still figuring out how to use, and Japan's strategic doctrine meant that their ships and planes were built for range, speed, and striking power (with severe tradeoffs, mind). At the war's start, it was a peerless weapon in the world.

The Battle of Midway is a case study in how you manage to lose such a weapon - namely, through mind-boggling arrogance and failing to properly maintain that weapon in the face of an adapting enemy that's increasingly coming to grips with how to fight that weapon effectively.

After Midway did IJN carrier doctrine move away from the Kido Butai model

chitoryu12
Apr 24, 2014

https://twitter.com/OozeBear/status/1174003490030530560

SlothfulCobra
Mar 27, 2011

Tab8715 posted:

Is there such a thing as military without a county?

I’m curious how to define terrorists vs. the military of another country.

Or how do governments decide this isn’t the government of a country but just a bunch of terrorists that happen to be there physically.



(Yeah it is hosed up that they took the the acronym of Doctors Without Borders, Metal Gear is weird)

There's a whole range of nebulous territory. A number of times countries will wind up abetting groups of people who go on their own military adventures. I think mercenaries often work for some more "legitimate" sources of force, but I don't know much about how they work. And there's things like rebellions and revolutions that don't technically have legal independent status. Then there's things like the Irish invasion of Canada that technically the US abetted.

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

Wondering how the early modern people cobbled together relatively coherent/disciplined field elements out of, you know, drunken dudes with pointy sticks and guns.

Like when, how, etc on the shift from "go on march between planting and harvest" to "create a soldiering class that isn't the nobles and their bodyguards" happened.

Cyrano4747
Sep 25, 2006

Yes, I know I'm old, get off my fucking lawn so I can yell at these clouds.

FAUXTON posted:

Wondering how the early modern people cobbled together relatively coherent/disciplined field elements out of, you know, drunken dudes with pointy sticks and guns.

Like when, how, etc on the shift from "go on march between planting and harvest" to "create a soldiering class that isn't the nobles and their bodyguards" happened.

Somewhere, Hey Guns just sat bolt upright.

SlothfulCobra
Mar 27, 2011

It's the same as the growth of cities and expansion of other professional trades, isn't it? People go off seeking opportunity and other people are looking for able bodies and have money to pay them.

Or the other way around where the people with money go 'round recruiting.

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zoux
Apr 28, 2006

Cyrano4747 posted:

Somewhere, Hey Guns just sat bolt upright.

Yeah I have a feeling that question is going to have the hell answered out of it

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