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# ? Oct 20, 2020 06:26 |
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# ? Apr 28, 2024 22:14 |
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really burns my butt that this is a completely realistic scenario
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 06:46 |
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mine is a map where people vote based on tropical storms/hurricanes that have hit a state in the historical record. if you're in a state that has been hit by over 50 tropical storms/hurricanes, you'll vote trump, if some but less than 50 then you vote biden, and if you're in a state that has never been hit by a tropical storm/hurricane, you will vote for gloria la riva.
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 07:34 |
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going with my gut
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 08:38 |
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I took 538's most recent state polling averages and just flat out gave trump a 5 point boost in literally every state to account for extreme chud enthusiasm and general election fuckery, and this is what I got. PA/MI/WI/MN gonna once again give the libs loving nightmares.
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 08:56 |
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Alobar posted:
more like your butt lmao
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 09:07 |
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Last election, I predicted the final result with amazing confidence: This year however, it's really more of a toss up: Without the Clinton Coronation factor, voter enthusiasm for Trump has dropped, reducing his chance of winning by a whopping 45 percentage points.
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 09:47 |
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you might be forgetting the "we're completely hosed" factor it's more like a tossed salad, imo biden was totally coronated, almost no one really knows how hosed up that crazy, creepy old racist is, they just blindly voted for him and bernie sanders ran a failure of a campaign most people who are left wing are either sitting this one out or voting third party you know, to be real about it, i'm not entirely sure about maine, that could really go either way, but i'm thinking trump honestly
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 10:09 |
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seems like pennsylvania is important
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 11:28 |
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Alobar posted:you might be forgetting the "we're completely hosed" factor lmao you have new mexico and virginia going for trump
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 12:50 |
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Alobar posted:most people who are left wing are either sitting this one out or voting third party its wild how much this line of thinking is orthodox here and I don’t know where you’re getting this from but I do sometimes get that sense that people here are confusing a sample size of CSPAM for the broader electorate. I know very very few people who consider themselves leftists who are sitting out the election and most of the ones who are live in safe blue states. the angle I see way more is that “yes Biden sucks but Trump is way worse so we need to vote.”
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 13:11 |
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I don't particularly want that map to be viewed as my actual prediction but on the other hand I don't really have an actual prediction so eh, good enough SpiderHyphenMan posted:lmao you have new mexico and virginia going for trump Even my unbelievably doom-addled brain can't see red NM or VA happening
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 14:30 |
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:lmao you have new mexico and virginia going for trump well now you've gone and done it, with your track record it's guaranteed to happen
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 15:19 |
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i'm feelin this one
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 15:27 |
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dex_sda posted:well now you've gone and done it, with your track record it's guaranteed to happen everyone in cspam is wrong about elections regardless of whether they think biden or trump will win because it'll be Jeb!
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 15:30 |
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Chokes McGee posted:everyone in cspam is wrong about elections regardless of whether they think biden or trump will win because it'll be Jeb! its true
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 15:31 |
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iwonder if there are going to be faithless electors this goround
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 15:33 |
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I'm curious about y'all who think Biden's gonna win but still lose Wisconsin this time around. I'd put Pennsylvania at more risk tbh.
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 15:49 |
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TrixRabbi posted:I'm curious about y'all who think Biden's gonna win but still lose Wisconsin this time around. I'd put Pennsylvania at more risk tbh. For me it's the strength with which openerup happened in wi
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 15:52 |
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TrixRabbi posted:I'm curious about y'all who think Biden's gonna win but still lose Wisconsin this time around. I'd put Pennsylvania at more risk tbh. Honestly I don't know. I've lived in Wisconsin for over 6 years now and I think my brain is just wired to think of this as A Chud State, even though we voted out Scott Walker. The 2016 results did my brain in something fierce, I think. It's hard for me to think of Wisconsin going blue in a presidential election after that. It doesn't help that everywhere you go in this state you see gigantic Trump signs along the highways. It definitely gives the "everywhere outside of Madison and Milwaukee is Trump Country" feeling. You're probably right that PA is significantly more likely to go red than WI this time. Wisconsin went red by a very slim margin in 2016 so it's not hard to see a different candidate turning it around.
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 16:02 |
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Let's do it
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 16:41 |
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Egg Moron posted:Gonna be tight but Trump This one, but we don't get final results for a week.
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 18:10 |
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Gonna be a rough, close Trump victory y'all
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 18:16 |
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 18:18 |
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 18:19 |
Pepperoneedy posted:Let's do it this is the most likely trold victory scenario imo
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 18:38 |
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 18:52 |
TrixRabbi posted:its wild how much this line of thinking is orthodox here and I don’t know where you’re getting this from but I do sometimes get that sense that people here are confusing a sample size of CSPAM for the broader electorate. I know very very few people who consider themselves leftists who are sitting out the election and most of the ones who are live in safe blue states. the angle I see way more is that “yes Biden sucks but Trump is way worse so we need to vote.” the only people I've met who, like me, are refusing to vote for Biden or Trump, are on twitter or cspam I think cspam really underestimates how many "normies" are extremely sick of Trump and want him to go away no matter what
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 19:09 |
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SKULL.GIF posted:the only people I've met who, like me, are refusing to vote for Biden or Trump, are on twitter or cspam 100% People want off the loving ride. Biden represents normalcy. We misread this as an appetite for broad left-wing support, when really it's just that most people want things to go back to normal. You can't go home again, but Biden is the off ramp and this is why you're seeing such massive support from groups like seniors and other groups who are appalled by Trump's decorum, have been hosed over by the COVID response and generally just can't take the constant headache.
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 19:37 |
TrixRabbi posted:100% the massive instability and incompetence of the trump administration undermines pretty much everything but jeff bezos and scams, i've seen big support for biden from both labor and management just to get fully-staffed federal agencies and a stabilized regulatory and subsidy environment back bc so much of what people do in the US relies on the federal government existing and performing certain functions
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 19:50 |
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dex_sda posted:iwonder if there are going to be faithless electors this goround didn't the supreme court make faithless electors illegal
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 19:53 |
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Peanut President posted:didn't the supreme court make faithless electors illegal They said, if the state has a law forbidding them from being faithless then they must obey that law. So electors in states that don't have such a law can do what they want.
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 19:59 |
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Also, believe it or not, most people genuinely like Joe Biden and think he's trustworthy and good. I don't. But most people do.
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 20:00 |
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piiiiiiiss
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 21:09 |
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Old James posted:They said, if the state has a law forbidding them from being faithless then they must obey that law. Also some of the states that do have laws are just things like $500 fines
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 21:37 |
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tup
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 21:49 |
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My most likely guess is the 2016 map with biden winning michigan and wisconsin but losing NC/AZ/FL/GA/TX/PA by tiny margins, leaving Biden with a 51-45 6 point popular vote win and Trump with 279 electoral college votes. This is basically just assuming Trump picks up about 3 points from his RCP averages in the next 2 weeks. That said, i wouldnt be surprised by anything between "exactly 2016 again", and "Blue Texas". It'll be hilarious if the pollsters are so scared of another 2016 that they tilted their models hard towards Trump and Biden overperforms by 6 points like Obama did in 2012, and by hilarious i mean "people will literally die".
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 22:37 |
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One More Fat Nerd posted:My most likely guess is the 2016 map with biden winning michigan and wisconsin but losing NC/AZ/FL/GA/TX/PA by tiny margins, leaving Biden with a 51-45 6 point popular vote win and Trump with 279 electoral college votes. This is one of the outcomes that feels really likely to me. People are acting like Biden's got these huge leads in swing states but he really doesn't. Looking at swing states that Trump won in 2016, even when Biden's ahead, it's not by a ton and easily within the margin of error. We know how "in the lead but within the margin of error" turned out in 2016. And all it would take is Trump picking up a couple points in a few of those to almost entirely erase Biden's lead, and that is very, very possible. Of course the big difference might be that Democratic voters are more motivated to actually bother voting this time, but I really just don't know.
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 22:44 |
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at which point the election must be decided by gladiatorial combat my money's on the drugs animating Trump's bloated carcass
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 22:47 |
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# ? Apr 28, 2024 22:14 |
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It's crazy how in 2012 polls would show Obama up just 1-2 points then he pulled off a bigger win than expected. now in 2020 Biden is up like 2-4 and we have to to assume he'll vastly underperform and Trump will do better like Nate Silver has Ohio at 50/50 odds, which to me just means Trump will mostly certainly win that state
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# ? Oct 20, 2020 22:57 |