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actionjackson posted:I think Biden could still pull out a squeaker even if he loses PA, WI, OH, GA, TX... lol dc going trump
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Nov 1, 2020 16:38
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Good morning. I forgot to flip Alaska hard red but imagine that I did
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Nov 1, 2020 16:46
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Judakel posted:No way Biden wins independents. He is a career politician and a centrist at that. There is very appeal there. if it's a lie, it's a lie respondents are telling pollsters, not a lie biden is telling himself
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Nov 1, 2020 19:32
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 nevada's close to in the bag for biden, and i've got a good feeling about arizona and north carolina think pennsylvania goes blue by 3-4 points, florida stays red texas, ohio, and iowa are all pipe dreams
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Nov 1, 2020 21:40
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MadJackal posted:
lmao.
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Nov 1, 2020 22:02
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 all I needed to do was give Biden Ohio and Iowa to get a map that finally has a contiguous swathe of blue from sea to shining sea who cares about florida, red america is cut in half also biden is going to win the election by early morning on the fourth at the latest
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Nov 1, 2020 22:21
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Nov 2, 2020 00:22
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Nov 2, 2020 01:47
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cheetah7071 posted:if it's a lie, it's a lie respondents are telling pollsters, not a lie biden is telling himself yeah, i can understand people saying "lol polls are meaningless", but not because there's some mass of shy trump voters who the pollsters just can't reach for some reason dems won the popular vote in 2018 by 8.6 points, polling had them winning by 10.2 going in. biden is currently polling up 7.8 now. trump needs to get within 3 to have a shot at an EC victory, and probably closer to 2 points like he won by in 2016. twice in history polls have been off by more than 5 points (not counting Dewey Defeats Truman): 1996 had Dole beating his polls by 5 points on his way to still losing in a humiliating fashion 1980 had Reagan narrowly winning going into the election then beating Mondale in an absolute laugher, beating his polls by 7-8 points. I don't think it's impossible for Trump to win, but the idea that it's going to come from a massive voter block completely missed by the polls is dumb as hell
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Nov 2, 2020 03:30
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It's more that factors outside of the election have made everything so tumultuous that nobody knows what the gently caress and the traditional polling systems are totally upended.
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Nov 2, 2020 04:35
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Grapplejack posted:It's more that factors outside of the election have made everything so tumultuous that nobody knows what the gently caress and the traditional polling systems are totally upended. yeah, if trump wins, it's going to be an outright stolen election, not because of this weird idea that more people aren't voting for biden than trump and somehow polls are just not tracking accurate support for trump, as a couple people up thread were asserting
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Nov 2, 2020 04:52
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 Montana for no reason but why not
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Nov 2, 2020 04:59
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cheetah7071 posted:if it's a lie, it's a lie respondents are telling pollsters, not a lie biden is telling himself Both are true.
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Nov 2, 2020 05:00
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Azathoth posted:yeah, i can understand people saying "lol polls are meaningless", but not because there's some mass of shy trump voters who the pollsters just can't reach for some reason Let's wait and see. 2 days. It won't be massive. It will be enough.
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Nov 2, 2020 05:01
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Judakel posted:Let's wait and see. 2 days. It won't be massive. It will be enough. yeah, that's my take as well.
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Nov 2, 2020 05:03
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Brogeoisie posted:Montana for no reason but why not I mean, presidentially, Montana voted for the Democrat more recently than a non-incumbent Republican won the popular vote
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Nov 2, 2020 05:55
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FacebookEmpathyMom posted:I mean, presidentially, Montana voted for the Democrat more recently than a non-incumbent Republican won the popular vote Yeah honestly small sample size, bad/nonpolling, weird covid turnout dynamics - might happen. Feel like odds are more likely we see a Ohio surprise for Biden but this is more fun
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Nov 2, 2020 06:15
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MadJackal posted:
Hey, that's my exact prediction as well. In 2016 I thought Hillary would top 300 with ease, so I'm a big dumb
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Nov 2, 2020 07:20
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Azathoth posted:yeah, i can understand people saying "lol polls are meaningless", but not because there's some mass of shy trump voters who the pollsters just can't reach for some reason
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Nov 2, 2020 08:23
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Azathoth posted:yeah, if trump wins, it's going to be an outright stolen election, not because of this weird idea that more people aren't voting for biden than trump and somehow polls are just not tracking accurate support for trump, as a couple people up thread were asserting They aren't shy, they're just not participating in the survey on any level that fulfills the criteria for the data that's being collected
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Nov 2, 2020 14:21
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I think the word "shy" in the "shy Trump voter" term is misleading, even if we accept that they exist in large enough numbers to skew the polls. I don't think Trump supporters are shy about supporting Trump. They're not, like, afraid of what people will think of them. They just think polls are fake news bullshit and don't bother to respond to them. Their Favorite President has told them as much many, many times. If the "shy Trump voter" does exist, I don't think it's because they fear some sort of social repercussion for admitting they support Trump. It'd be because they're ignoring pollsters, not picking up the phone, not responding to online polls, etc., and therefore not getting detected.
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Nov 2, 2020 15:31
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Idiot Kicker posted:Hey, that's my exact prediction as well. i think if Hillary had actually had the momentum to win, it would have been a big win, but lol for all the people who hated Trump, they couldn't be bothered to commit their night to voting in an election he couldn't possibly win, right? I have absolutely no idea how this election will play out so I won't make a map. 2016 hosed me up so bad on politics and I don't give a poo poo what the polls say anymore, I just want to check the box for yeezy/tiddyball and move on with my loving life I have never felt better about living in Oklahoma and maybe the sheer novelty of getting to vote for Kanye will get some extra people out to the polls here, a place where almost nobody loving bothers
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Nov 2, 2020 15:33
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Harrow posted:I think the word "shy" in the "shy Trump voter" term is misleading, even if we accept that they exist in large enough numbers to skew the polls. I don't think Trump supporters are shy about supporting Trump. They're not, like, afraid of what people will think of them. They just think polls are fake news bullshit and don't bother to respond to them. Their Favorite President has told them as much many, many times. I mean I don't even acknowledge any form of communication that isn't both expected and from someone I know. Since covid started this includes the doorbell bc solicitors have gone insane during the day with everyone wfh around here
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Nov 2, 2020 15:42
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Harrow posted:I think the word "shy" in the "shy Trump voter" term is misleading, even if we accept that they exist in large enough numbers to skew the polls. I don't think Trump supporters are shy about supporting Trump. They're not, like, afraid of what people will think of them. They just think polls are fake news bullshit and don't bother to respond to them. Their Favorite President has told them as much many, many times. fwiw, everybody I know who "hides" they support trump hides it poorly and will gladly tell you at length about their politics if they think you are remote receptive so I cannot imagine those people lying to a random nobody pollster especially if it means supporting their guy at no cost to them the Bradley Effect was never real and the main reason 2016 went the way it did was people staying home
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Nov 2, 2020 15:56
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the 2016 map but trump gets some other state like minnesota or new hampshire
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Nov 2, 2020 17:58
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Nov 2, 2020 19:27
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https://twitter.com/DraftKings/status/1323294561079304192
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Nov 2, 2020 19:30
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Nov 2, 2020 19:31
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Set lols to maximum
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Nov 2, 2020 20:39
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:Set lols to maximum Yeah this'll be it
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Nov 2, 2020 20:46
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i am not gonna toxx but i am absolutely 100% sure oklahoma will deliver seven electoral votes to kanye west if this happens y'all owe me an avatar or something
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Nov 2, 2020 21:06
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:Set lols to maximum Trump, flipping Joe's Delaware? It's more likely than you think.
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Nov 2, 2020 22:38
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Chamale posted:Just out of curiosity, here is the map if 538's projected vote totals are accurate, with Biden getting 351 electoral votes: Thank you!! Its so frustrating that they dont like just have a big, automatically shaded map to like easily look at. like idc about their lines of text or like separating state predictions into separate pages or the weird squiggly line or useless dot things.
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Nov 3, 2020 00:46
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Teriyaki Hairpiece posted:Set lols to maximum EVs for states that don't exist go to the incumbent, this scans
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Nov 3, 2020 00:51
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This is my best-case scenario pick. Real pick would flip NC, FL, and IA to Trump.
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Nov 3, 2020 02:10
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 My map. I think it comes down to AZ. I'm giving trump the benefit of the doubt in all the other swing states.
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Nov 3, 2020 03:47
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ate poo poo on live tv posted:
Good news! Biden is not winning AZ according to early voting totals.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:11
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Taintrunner posted:Good news! Biden is not winning AZ according to early voting totals. In that case. Here is my weighted map: 
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Nov 3, 2020 04:17
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From one of the bigger talking heads in poll interpreting punditry: https://twitter.com/MassMom1/status/1323256188071481345?s=19 In all the iterations I've seen here, not sure I've seen anyone predict a blue Georgia and a red Florida.
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Nov 3, 2020 05:33
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| # ? Apr 29, 2024 18:44 |
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Azathoth posted:From one of the bigger talking heads in poll interpreting punditry:
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Nov 3, 2020 06:20
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