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mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Oberleutnant posted:

I dunno why the scots are so uppity for independence we already gave them their own little parliament

Scots, of course, aren't uppity for independence. There was a referendum a few months ago in which Scots solidly voted against independence, and a yougov poll released today says the Scots are still against independence.

The SNP have been very relentless in pushing the idea that they are the Scottish party and the other parties are English London parties. Unfortunately this idea does seem to be taking root - very solidly in their own supporters of course, but perhaps more generally too. And unfortunately outside Scotland as well.

One thing I did notice during the referendum is that a lot of independence supporters took for granted the idea that left of centre ideals and social justice etc were self evidently and obviously nationalist ideals and if you believed in those you had to support yes, and if you didn't support yes obviously you were against liberalism and socialism and anything left of centre. Hence the rage, from that quarter at least, at Labour (but not just Labour - the Guardian, the BBC especially etc all got hate for betraying Scotland on behalf of the Tories.)

All the independence supporters on this forum are thankfully more sensible, but a good example of this mind set is Daft Limmy's twitter feed during the referendum. Most of his tweets were about how no supporters love foodbanks and Trident, and included gems like "if you vote no you can never complain about Westminster ever again.". Of course it doesn't make sense, but a lot of people do genuinely seem to think like that.

Of course, this meant that yes supporters had to explain why most Scots were Trident and foodbank loving Tories, which is why the Vow got so exaggerated so that the stabbed in the back narrative could be easily applied.

But why this meant Labour got so screwed? I'm still not sure. I suspected it was because before the referendum Labour were pretty invisible - under the awkward Miliband leadership nationwide and the genuinely awful Johan Lamont leadership in Scotland. The political landscape in Scotland may have appeared to be a noisy and obnoxious Tory leadership in London and a noisy 'opposition' SNP leadership in Edinburgh. When Labour finally did reappear in the national media during the referendum, perhaps it did appear to some like they were fighting for the Tories? The interminable length of the referendum campaign certainly didn't help and probably let these narratives take root.

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mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


We also need to remember the context that 'the vow' was made in (lets remember, the vow was a promise of 1) more devolution and 2) continued Barnett formula.) - there was a lot of talk by yes supporters that if Scotland voted no it was going to be 'monstered' by Westminster for daring to have the referendum, that there would never be another referendum allowed, and likely that the Scottish parliament would be abolished. This was presented as self evidently going to happen by many. (again, a good place to see this is Daft Limmy's twitter feed)

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Coohoolin posted:

it was more like "if we vote No we're telling Westminster we don't care what they do to us"

Yes, that's a good example of the scaremongering that was being presented in the final months.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Hoops posted:

I'm can't agree with all of this bit. I don't remember any claim ever that the Scottish parliament would be affected by a No vote, and Limmy laid everything on thick in order to wind people up, because that's what his comedy is like.

Coohoolin is right that literally hours after the result it was straight on to "okay that conversation's over, let's talk about English votes for English laws". Which was dumb as poo poo and didn't help matters at all. But it still doesn't mean that the plan of "let's keep the pound maybe, and stay in the EU maybe, and oil will go up maybe, and we'll figure the rest out as we come to it after we haven't really thought about it yet" style of declaring secession was ever the right move.

I guess I was having conversations with different people, and Daft Limmy was definitely not doing comedy in those tweets, but anyway... I agree there should be (and can be) a movement to reform Westminster, and bring in a federalised UK (my own personal 'end goal' for the UK). Preferably the SNP and the progressive coalition that Nicola Sturgeon is allegedly wanting to form would be a driving block for this.

mediadave fucked around with this message at 15:05 on Apr 6, 2015

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Coohoolin posted:

Well part of the plans for an independent Scotland included open immigration, is that good enough for you?

Actually, the white paper stated an independent Scotland would have a points based immigration system.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Is there anything stopping Miliband from calling out The Sun and Murdoch? Emphasising his media policy and making hay of how it'll break up News International?

The vitriol and determination that the Right Wing papers are throwing at him can't increase, and Murdoch/News International/The media in general are hardly popular with the public. Might even give some splash damage to the SNP/force them to denounce News International as well...

mediadave fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Apr 21, 2015

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Ugh, I don't know how I'm going to last till the 7th. Every poll fills me with dread or offers brief relief. That the SNP stuff seems to be striking a cord, and therefore the Tories will keep hammering it for the next two weeks, just makes my heart sink.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Regarding the federalism debate, its worth pointing out that devomax couldn't work with federalism. devomax has been defined repeatedly as 'all powers' excluding foreign affairs and defence. Combined with full fiscal autonomy, under devomax there couldn't really be a federal government, certainly not the powerful federal governments that the USA and Germany have. Devomax is much more similar to what the Isle of Man currently has - basically full independence with a shared foreign and defence policy. US states don't even have full fiscal autonomy, what with federal taxes and fiscal transfers to poorer states, and they certainly don't possess 'all powers' (as much as Ron Paul might want).

I do agree that a federal UK would be best and probably the only long term solution, but at the moment I honestly don't think a workable federal system could be constructed between Scotland and the rest of the UK - the attempt to construct a federal government would be endlessly denounced by the SNP as a betrayal of The Vow.

mediadave fucked around with this message at 12:59 on Apr 26, 2015

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


When people say that 'people fought for your freedom to vote', generally they DO mean suffragettes and unionists, don't they? Of course I'm sure they also mean WW2 (and yeah, I guess incorrectly WW1), but most people are aware of the suffragettes at least I'd have thought.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Phoon posted:

A federal UK could potentially solve many of the issues that have annoyed so many scots enough to want to leave and therefore reduce the desire for independence.

IMO we should split the UK into Wales, Scotland, N Ireland and then split England into states of roughly equivalent population sizes to Scotland.

Tom Holland's Progressive Heptarchy.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/lond...uk-9748609.html

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Why are most seat predictions showing the Tories winning substantially (20+) more seats than Labour? Even taking Scotland into account, surely the vagries of FPTP and seat boundaries mean that if Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck on votes Labour will win substantially more seats?

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/

http://elections.ft.com/uk/2015/seatmoves/

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interact...on-predictions/

mediadave fucked around with this message at 08:03 on Apr 27, 2015

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Prince John posted:

Does anyone see any way of Scottish Labour countering the SNP short of reinventing themselves with a completely new message and identity?

Hugging the SNP to death, talking about how they are working so well together in Westminster, talking about how they want to form a progressive coalition with the SNP in Holyrood, hoping that the SNP decide against proposing another indyref in 2016 Holyrood manifesto (which actually seems likely), hoping that the more fanatical SNP new members start to splinter away to more fundamentalist pro-indy parties, hoping that the new cohort of SNP MPs make a fool of themselves...


Basically, a lot of hope.



And that depends on Scottish Labour at last being able to pretend to like and work with the SNP. They may not be able to.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011



Maybe the users of Grindr can answer that:

Scottish Grindr users on the 2015 general election
http://machotrouts.tumblr.com/



EDIT: probably NSFW, for text.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Prince John posted:

Assuming a majority is out of reach, does anybody feel Miliband would be better served by not forming a government? It must be difficult to avoid being tarnished as weak/ineffective if you're having to engage in negotiations on a vote-by-vote basis, having ruled out a formal coalition with the SNP. I wonder what they think the impact will be on the 2020 election.

serious gaylord posted:

I get the feeling both Labour and the Conservatives kind of feel that whoever wins this election will end up losing quite badly in the long run. Its a rather poisoned chalice with the way the vote is now split. Its got the makings of the loser being able to stoke the fires that the winning coalition is weak and floundering etc for the time they're in, especially if some key policies get stopped because of infighting.

If Labour refuse to deal with the SNP and let a Tory government in that they could theoretically have stopped, that's them done in Scotland*. And probably the union is done as well in that situation. I also can't imagine it'll help Labour in their other heartlands either.



*yeah, things are pretty grim for them at the moment, but they have a chance, a probability that they can rebuild, as the SNP inevitably ebb from their current high water mark.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Pissflaps posted:

Alternatively: if the SNP are unwilling to agree to whatever demands Labour makes then they could themselves be accused of letting in a Tory government?

If the last seven months have taught me anything, its that the SNP seem to be unstoppable or unarguable against when they're framing the argument.

EDIT: I mean, they're arguable against, you can argue until the cows come home about SNP obsfucations over Full Fiscal Autonomy or point out that 'as near federalism as possible' doesn't actually mean full independence with a shared defence policy or query what policies or spending plans they have that are to the left of Labour, but it doesn't dent the supporters and it certainly isn't denting their polling.

I have no doubt that the SNP crying betrayal by the Red Tories would go down very well.

mediadave fucked around with this message at 18:40 on Apr 29, 2015

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Pissflaps posted:

Well, they did lose the referendum so I'm not sure about unstoppable. But yes, there's a lot of nationalist sentiment in Scotland at the moment that transcends logic.


That's the funny part: they don't have any.

Yes - my point exactly. It's just taken as true that the SNP are to the left of Labour - well to the left in fact.

In my mind, the SNP at the moment are like Tony Blair in 1997 x2 (at least). Every critiscism, no matter how legitimate it is, is just bouncing off. I think it'll take a few years for them to deflate. The 2016 Scottish parliament elections could be the start of that deflation depending on how the SNP handle the referendum question (either way could blow up in their faces), and if Miliband has run a good minority government then in 2020 Scottish Labour may well be back in a position to retake seats.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Kaislioc posted:


Anyone know off the top of their head if they have a stated preference the UK beyond getting out?

Honstly I don't know - I'd be surpirised, any suggestion that the UK system could be improved is undercutting their own argument.

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


How many seats do the Tories/Lib Dems/DUP/UKIP combined currently have? Whilst a workable government of them seems very unlikely, how many seats do they have to lose before a Tory led government becomes impossible?

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


namesake posted:

I think the Lib Dems want to be out of government again and so are proposing all kinds of red lines and deal breakers about all kinds of things so they can refuse to form another coalition while remaining 'principled'.

I have heard that before, but that's a bit stupid if it is their plan. That would mean the only example anyone would have of Lib Dems in government in 100 years and being the influence they claim they want to be is of them being the least popular part of an unpopular government (that, I think is only going to get less popular in hindsight).

mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


I'm seriously going to have to go on a twitter cold turkey after this is over. From the whole indyref campaign up to now I've been an avid twitter information consumer, and I don't think it's doing me much good.

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mediadave
Sep 8, 2011


Regarde Aduck posted:

We will all suffer together

Indyref 2 just got metal

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