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Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


I put 2% of my portfolio in cryptocurrency and have been trading it and now I'm up 2.4x since June, it's p cool

Not a true believer, don't care if it crashes someday because I'm in USD 99% of the time. If the exchange gets hacked then lol it was a fun hobby.

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Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Stefan Prodan posted:

You realize an investment where you can't actually give any reasons a thing should continue to be more likely to go up than down is what we call a "bad investment" right
honestly it doesn't matter as long as there is volume, volatility, you know how to manage risk, and you otherwise have good trading practices

if you're buying and holding long-term then yeah you should have an investment thesis

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Exchange compromise is a risk I accept with my crypto portfolio, and it's why I only have 2% (well now more like 4%) of my overall investment portfolio in crypto. Once I reach a certain dollar value, I'm going to begin paying myself back to cover my initial investment so that any further trading is "risk free." Then I'll keep trading, hopefully successfully, and pay myself dividends that I can put into traditional investments to stay well-diversified.

That's my basic strategy.

I just can't ignore the potential of 30% monthly returns that I've gotten so far. The reward is easily worth the risk, at least for me.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Not saying that chart is wrong, but it doesn't match this chart:



from https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


One reason those charts don't match is that the first one (that shows a rapid decrease in volume) shows volume in BTC, while the one I posted shows volume in USD. As the price of BTC increases and more people hold onto their BTC, the volume of BTC exchanged should decrease even though the volume in USD value exchanged increases.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


gary oldmans diary posted:

*agrees with a buyer to make a cash exchange for the bitcoins*
*arrives at the agreed upon exchange location and the buyer changes his offer to a briefcase full of ham sandwiches*
you could just sell them on an exchange and then wire the money to your bank from the exchange

then buy ham sandwiches

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


So what was actually going on, were the exchanges in China spoofing their trade histories?

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


David Heinrich posted:

Do you really want to put your investment knowledge and ability to manipulate financial markets against that of an entire financial institution?
uh yeah lol

i'm a lamprey to the shark

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


evilweasel posted:

it is occasionally possible to cash out provided you give an unregulated exchange a complete identity theft kit, and are willing to have your bank account immediately closed for suspicious transactions
or you could just sell bitcoin on gdax/coinbase and wire it to your bank

a lot of you are repeating things that were true about the crypto space a while ago but are no longer true

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Oct 12, 2017

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


evilweasel posted:

yes, which requires giving an unregulated exchange a complete identity theft kit, and results in the bank closing your account because they know coinbase is a giant red flag
it's registered as a money services business with FinCEN and complies with the laws and regulations in the jurisdictions in which it operates. i wouldn't call that "unregulated"

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


poorlifedecision posted:

He probably has nothing but a bunch of fiat currency he uses to "buy" things he "wants and needs."
it takes a few hours to sell bitcoin on a US-based exchange and then wire the cash to yourself. the majority of the time elapsed is just waiting for the wire to process and clear

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


poorlifedecision posted:

I don't know what you think I asked but I'm very sure this isn't the correct answer.
you didn't ask anything

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


scott zoloft posted:

not to mention you can literally keep cash and coins in an account on gdax and just transfer the money back to your bank account with two mouse clicks. it's that easy.
excuse me sir i'm trying to repeat talking points from 2013 here, can you please not interrupt me

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


weird, violating their terms of service by circumventing laws and regulations that coinbase complies with will get your account shut down!

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


univbee posted:

I agree, TOS Violations costing individuals 5 figure sums is both cool and good.
if they're circumventing US law then yeah it is unironically cool and good

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


*says that all exchanges are unlicensed, unregulated money laundering rings*

*complains that exchanges comply with banking and AML laws*

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


univbee posted:

If people are circumventing laws you arrest them and seize their assets formally, you don't give some random company permission to pocket people's wallets in a citizen's arrest.
wow i just learned that exchanges have the authority to arrest their customers lol cool

banks routinely shut down accounts when they believe the accounts are being used criminally

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


COMRADES posted:

They don't just shut it down though they freeze it and investigate and give you something other than the PayPal middle finger of old.


And then if you do that you take on the risk of loss on your end through drive failure or forgetting the password to the wallet or whatever. Don't say that never happens either.
if you read the message that coinbase sends to its users after closing their accounts, they say that the customer still has access to their balance and can transfer it elsewhere

they aren't just stealing their customer's poo poo

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


univbee posted:

Yes and there's a process you can go through for dealing with that, not just a support email hole.

Also when a bank does it they explicitly tell you why, not just "we're closing your account down."
banks do the same thing, they give a vague explanation like "we noticed suspicious activity"

you're going off of reddit posts that people throw up the instant they get shut down, just lol at that

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


COMRADES posted:

And then if you do that you take on the risk of loss on your end through drive failure or forgetting the password to the wallet or whatever. Don't say that never happens either.
yeah the entire crypto space is fantastically risky and anyone who says otherwise is v dumb, but the potential gains are also extraordinary. imo the reward is well worth risking <5% of my overall investment portfolio, which is mostly in boring index funds

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


lol bitcoin is at 5700 now

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


RottenK posted:

who the gently caress paid 172413 satoshis to pretend to be hs
fixed that for u

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


evilweasel posted:

wait a minute i realized i forgot to respond to this

yes, it is "regulated" in the sense that it follows money-laundering laws. that does not mean it is a regulated exchange in the sense that anyone would think, such as keeping customer funds segregated, actual controls on front-running, painting the tape, fake trades, or any other number of other manipulative tactics, actual financial controls
it's true that it doesn't have the same regulations that prevent market manipulation, at least not yet. it does keep customer funds segregated in bank accounts in the customer's name and those funds are FDIC insured, but that's only for USD balances, not cryptocurrency (obviously an important caveat, but one that can be mitigated by transferring crypto to privately held offline accounts)

quote:

yes, coinbase complies with money transmission regulations. it does not report its customer reserves to a regulator. if it wanted to mtgox its customers (or if it was doing it already), tough luck you idiots are unsecured creditors with claims against empty bank accounts and nobody cares, good job giving all your actual irl dollars to some random idiots
coinbase is licensed under the NYSDFS's bitlicense which requires quarterly reports and financial disclosures, and surety bonds for customer funds. also, like i said, i have <5% of my investment funds in crypto, the rest is in vanguard index funds

it's not nearly as unregulated as you make it out to be

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


evilweasel posted:

ahh i forgot about the bitlicense

better than nothing; quarterly reporting is obviously not good because that leaves plenty of time for "oops where did all the money go" but you are right, that one particular exchange may be somewhat regulated
coinbase and gemini are both regulated under bitlicense, i think there might be one or two others but not sure because i don't use them

bitfinex is going to end services for US residents soon because they say they don't get enough revenue to justify the expense of staying in compliance with US regulations

bittrex claims they follow CFTC and SEC regulations but i've done less research on them because i only keep a small part of my crypto portfolio there, just because they offer a lot of trading pairs that coinbase and gemini don't (probably because the latter are more strictly regulated, but not sure). anyway, that's a risk i'm willing to take with that segment of my portfolio

i think the crypto space has come a really long way since 2013/2014 when i was relentlessly making fun of bitcoin. i've seen enough changes to dip my toes in the water, at least, and so far it's paying off. if i lose that small part of my overall investment portfolio then that's fine

the people who are cashing out their 401ks to dump into bitcoin are very stupid

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


HerStuddMuffin posted:

I know you're being facetious, but ham's tried that argument (and you are making fun of that) and it was bullshit even then. If you need another currency to handle day-to-day transaction, then that coin would displace bitcoin and remove it from the marketplace. It would only be good for bitcoin in the sense that it would put it out of its misery. Doing business in cryptocoin, whatever specific one you use, is already a hassle because it's like doing business in a foreign currency inside your own country, which is simply insane to expect of the general public. Have you seen tourists handling foreign currencies, regardless of nationality and country visited? To affirm that people would voluntarily use not one, but two or more kinds of weirdollars in their daily life is moronic beyond words.

And evil weasel, thank you for the explanation, but it takes me back to my conundrum. Since Chinese miners want cash, and they have to sell abroad because they want USD, not yuan, and it's trivial to turn coins into cash through the exchanges, how aren't they crashing the US price to the production cost of bitcoins in China or thereabout?
I'm still left with three explanations: either the price is manipulated out the wazoo, or it's not so easy to cash out, or miners are a small fraction of the market.
Why do you assume that the Chinese want USD and not yuan?

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


evilweasel posted:

mining is a net loss, usually, once you factor in hardware costs and electricity. there is a specific amount generated per day, and you have to keep buying more and more hardware to keep your chances of winning some of them the same. if there's a gap between the "cost of production" and the "price" of a bitcoin that gets narrowed by people buying a ton more miners until the production cost is about the same as the price (because the amount generated is a constant, it can't crash to the price of production because the price of production doesn't dictate the amount of production)
I think it's profitable in China where costs are significantly lower. Not sure though because I don't care about mining and consequently don't know much more than the basics

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


univbee posted:

When he said "they want USD" he meant "they want their money outside of China", and usually when they want it outside of China this means "in the United States", which generally uses USD and not Yuan.
Yeah no poo poo. It's that underlying assumption that they want to move all their wealth outside of China that I'm questioning. I know a lot of Chinese people and none of them are rushing to get everything they own out. Most of them are investing in China.

I'm not doubting that wealthy Chinese hedge by investing in USD. Obviously they do.

edit: also you're adding an unnecessary step... if you think they're buying BTC with yuan so they can then use BTC to buy a foreign currency, why do the latter? They can just hold BTC instead as a hedge against yuan and then buy more yuan back if it falls against BTC.

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Oct 14, 2017

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


evilweasel posted:

why do you assume all chinese want the same thing
thank you for making my point for me

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


univbee posted:

(and yes, a country of a billion people does also have a substantial number of people who are content staying put)
yep, and even the wealthy Chinese who are buying foreign assets are doing so to hedge against their own currency, not because they're getting everything they own out of China. The activity of Chinese buying bitcoin as a hedge (whether using it to buy USD or just holding bitcoin, I'm sure it's a mix of both) is not unlike what anyone else in the world does when they buy bitcoin. It's done with the expectation that their own currency could fall in value relative to whatever it is they're buying.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


iceaim posted:

You mean the Chinese exchanges that Beijing just banned because they're freaked out about capital outflows?
It's probably going to be a temporary ban to give the Chinese government time to figure out how to regulate the exchanges. They probably aren't closing the door to legal purchase of crypto assets.

edit: forever, that is

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Oct 15, 2017

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Prester Jane posted:

Apparently you have never even once observed how the Chinese state conducts business. China does not want its currency leaving its borders for a whole host of complicated reasons that the Chinese state views as essential to its ongoing existence. The Chinese state does not give the tiniest of fucks about "regulating" the exchanges because while the Chinese state may be corrupt and onerous it is not stupid and does not like its citizens subverting its will.

Your assertion of the intentions of the Chinese state is based purely on hope and makes sense only if you understand literally nothing at all about what makes the Chinese state tick.
yeah and you, prester jane, do

lol

edit: btw it makes no difference to me whether china bans exchanges or not. i do not buy and hold bitcoin or other cryptos long term. i'm in USD 99% of the time and i trade, so volatility is good for me. i made money on the crash that was caused by the news breaking that china was going to force exchanges to close. my point here is that my opinion that china's ban is temporary is not based on wishful thinking, because china's ban was good for me in the short term and is neutral in the long term if it is permanent

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 02:09 on Oct 15, 2017

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Prester Jane posted:

Your point is that China's ban is temporary because you profited off the ban is uhh...pretty much just strait up wishful thinking dude.
that is not what i said at all. you accused me of wishful thinking because i believe the ban is temporary. i'm telling you that it's not wishful thinking--i don't care if the ban is temporary because it doesn't affect my ability to profit from trading. if i'm wrong it's no skin off my back, so why should i need to wishfully think that the ban is temporary?

quote:

Feel free to post a single piece of news or analysis from a mainstream source that gives any indication that the ban is temporary. If you are unable to do so it just means that all you have is wishful thinking.
that does not logically follow, unless you believe that mainstream news is the only valid source for information about cryptocurrency (i think you probably don't). i heard about the exchange ban through non-mainstream channels before it was reported in mainstream channels. most crypto news is disseminated through non-mainstream channels. that doesn't mean that everything said about crypto in non-mainstream channels is true, obviously. my belief that the ban is temporary is shaded with a healthy degree of doubt--it's provisional. it's what i think is likeliest to happen.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Lime Tonics posted:

In the meantime, most Americans aren’t buying into bitcoin, but lots of mysterious foreigners — from far-away locations like Malaysia, Indonesia and other places where people go to disappear — are investing in it.
most volume comes from the US, China, Japan, Korea, and Europe. but yeah i guess people in "mysterious" foreign places like malaysia and indonesia also buy crypto?

quote:

also, lol for money being backed by power bills to server farms.
yeah proof of work is pretty dumb

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Prester Jane posted:

Okay you are correct Uranium, your assertion that the Chinese ban is temporary is not based on wishful thinking, it is instead based on literally nothing at all.
a rhetorical flourish! how did you know, my only weakness? *implodes into a crinkled up ball of empty skin*

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Lime Tonics posted:

so how do i cash out my 2.13 bitcoins without having to buy drugs or let the app access my browsing history?

into real money? like even bolivars or worse.
get verified on an exchange that supports fiat withdrawals (coinbase or gemini if you're in the US, not sure what to use for other countries), verify your bank account with that exchange, transfer the bitcoins to the exchange, then wire or ACH the money to your bank account

the verification takes the longest, but for me, it was less than a week on gemini and less than a day for coinbase.

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Prester Jane posted:

The counter is easy here: just post a single bit of mainstream news or analysis that suggests the ban is temporary. Your entire defense here is based on being pedantic over the my usage of the phrase "wishful thinking" to indicate that your assertions are backed by no substance. All you gotta do to prove me wrong is demonstrate that your assertions are based in some sort of substance.
wow you're trying really hard to goad me into this argument but... nah

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Lime Tonics posted:

i see, so in order to get money, i have to give them all my account details and creds.

seems on the up and up.

also, the bitcoins were a joke, the 2.13 were mined using a p2733 and a 4200ti geforce in the span of 6ish years?
they have to have that information to comply with the applicable laws and regulations in the jurisdictions where they're licensed to operate

"know your customer" is anti-money laundering compliance 101

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Prester Jane posted:

Its really weird how all the pro-bitcoiners react the exact same way when you press them for specifics to back up their assertions......
i'm not even pro-bitcoin. i have no idea if it will be successful long term and don't really care. i do think that blockchain technology will find some measure of success eventually

i like the crypto space from the perspective of a trader because it's an emerging space with a lot of volatility and potential for rapid growth, much like the marijuana sector in the stock market. it's high risk and high reward, and since i'm young, i'm comfortable with using a small part of my investment portfolio to trade it

bitcoin is important in the sense that it dominates the crypto market and the values of so many crypto assets correlate to bitcoin, so i have to pay attention to it. but i trade it somewhat cynically

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Lime Tonics posted:

hmm yes it seems fine to give my bank account number, phone number, name and address to a company based in the Philippines. A bank under us sanctions even.

seems legit to me.
coinbase is based in san francisco and gemini is based in nyc, so not sure what you're talking about

coinbase uses metropolitan commercial bank for segregating their customer's funds and it's definitely not under sanctions

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Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004


Prester Jane posted:

Not a word of that has anything to do with why you think the Chinese ban is temporary. Its just self fellatio.
yes, that was a reply to you calling me pro-bitcoiner

don't kink shame me

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