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enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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I haven't eaten indoors since March of 2020, but we've been outdoors twice. Both times at the same place, which we checked beforehand had tables well spaced out, and put our masks on whenever a server got close (which was awkward as hell, but I'm super immunocompromised so extra careful).

We're generally OK with going indoors if it's not crowded and we're wearing masks (cloth at the start of the pandemic, KN95 later on, recently a headstrap N95)

I'm in Ontario, Canada and cases were lowish through the summer (20 / 100K / 7 days), although recently they've been going up (I think it's 40ish now?)

Unfortunately, this year most restaurants decided they weren't going to bother with heaters so restaurants probably won't be a thing until spring for us.

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enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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A Strange Aeon posted:

I'm sure there are plenty like you, too--you'd think businesses would want that, though maybe they rightly think they'd lose more customers than they'd gain, since vaccinated people are clearly more risk adverse than unvaccinated and may stay home anyway.

There's also the downside of being targeted for protests and having your staff harassed constantly.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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naem posted:

if I were responsible for any children right now
1. that would be terrible because I am an idiot
but more importantly
2. pretty sure we’d go full Amish for a couple years here

We homeschooled our kids last year, which is something I didn't think I would do in a million years. This year so far cases have been much lower where we are, so we've sent them (it's helpful that they go to a small school and the types of things mentioned above wouldn't happen with the rules we have at a board and provincial level)

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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StrangersInTheNight posted:

There can be nuances, where it's not just hermiting or saying 'gently caress it I'll just get COVID anyway'. You can live a fairly quiet life and still go out and do things. I still go out, but I consider the risks and who will be there/how many people/if they're vaxxed or will at least wear masks before deciding to go to a certain event or place.

Going 'gently caress it' is understandable emotional backlash to feeling stuck inside for so long, but you know that it's not necessarily great to just pretend it's not here. I understand you resent having hermited for so long (especially when others didn't), and so the drive to go out now is so strong, it's almost like making up for lost time. But maybe don't whiplash between the extremes, yeah? It's ok to go out, but yes, the world is different, it will never be the same again. There's no light at the end of the tunnel where we all go back to normal, like we all kept talking about at the beginning of this plague. I'm sorry for that.

I think the thing with precautions that at this point, especially in the US, it makes sense to think about your response to COVID in terms of protecting your own health (and the people you're immediately interacting with), because nothing you personally do is going to have a measurable impact on eliminating or even reducing COVID in your area.

I wish that it were the case that if we all just decided we're going to be responsible and take precautions it would happen, but there's enough people who are diametrically opposed to their lives being impacted in any way to protect someone else that elimination by individual action is a pipe dream.

enki42 fucked around with this message at 18:51 on Dec 7, 2021

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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ChairmanMauzer posted:

Sure, but is the difference between take out and dine-in worth risking your life over?

This just gets into circular arguments about relative risk. Depending on where you live, what restrictions are in place, etc, "risking your life" might mean an absolutely minuscule risk. If I wasn't immunocompromised, I would have been relatively comfortable eating indoors in the summer in Ontario, where vaccination was required to eat indoors and cases were 10-15 per 100K every 7 days. If I was in Florida that would have been a completely different story.

enki42 fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Dec 7, 2021

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Funky See Funky Do posted:

Even a mild case of covid will shear years off your life

Without the world's largest "potentially" this is a pretty massive exaggeration I think. If you are vaccinated and appropriately boosted your average case won't result in any detectable long term damage and might even be asymptomatic. Long COVID exists, but the most pessimisitic studies out there show an incidence of maybe 30% across both vaccinated and unvaccinated people, so that's your absolute upper bound (and long COVID itself doesn't imply a reduction in lifespan or even lifelong symptoms, just 'has symptoms after infection')

Hell, even saying that getting COVID while unvaccinated will shear years off your life isn't close to supported.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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The Bloop posted:

:ironicat:

You are correct that the other post is saying unproven things as facts but then you turn around and do the same.

The difference of course is that your suggestion is the riskier one.

While yes, I don't have absolute proof that an asymptomatic and / or mild COVID case that is completely clear from symptoms in a few weeks didn't secretly reduce their life expectancy by 5 years, it seems reasonable enough to say that a virus that didn't have severe symptoms, was short, and didn't have any lasting symptoms more than likely did not have any significant long-term effects.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Funky See Funky Do posted:

Yeah sorry I should have said "could shear.." instead of "will".

My point remains the risk is there and it's not worth rolling the dice on, imo.

This is all relative though. Presumably you've been outside your house at least once since March 2020. That's not a gotcha, but surely you acknowledge that there's a calculation that you take in terms of risk. It's going to have a million different variables involved, and for sure there's going to be cases that are so outside the norm that they're clearly reckless or overly cautious to pretty much everyone, but anything beyond that is really hard to judge on a person by person level.

Is eating on a patio when you're in a well-vaccinated area OK? What about if you're in New Zealand? China?

Is a 90 year old being willing to take a risk to see family after being vaccinated alright, considering there's a not insignificant chance that they'll never really get to if they wait for COVID cases to get low enough?

I agree insofar as anyone just not really paying attention to the risks and doing whatever isn't acting responsibly but "any action other than living like a hermit until COVID is completely gone" is looking like it'll be equivalent to "always live like a hermit", and there's legitimate reasons that people might have different risk calculations IMO.

enki42 fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Dec 7, 2021

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Funky See Funky Do posted:

Right and I assume when they said "living like a hermit" they didn't mean building a cabin in the woods and shooting at anyone that comes within 100m of it. I assume they meant avoiding crowds, social gatherings, and being out in public whenever possible.

Keep in mind that it's not only your own health you risk when you risk exposure. It's the health of everyone you come into contact with and everyone they come into contact with and so on and so on. Every person that stays at home whenever they can is one less person out there spreading the virus.

Right, but my overall point is that it's impossible to draw a line in the sand of what activities are acceptable and which ones are too risky. Very few people are actually the stereotypes of "haven't left my basement since March 2020" and "gently caress and suck at Denny's twice daily", and these arguments always turn into people assuming the person they're arguing with is one of those extremes.

Everyone is in different places with different restrictions, and has different personal circumstances that are going to inform what choices they are willing to make. So long as they're actually thinking about risk and not being entirely reckless, or going to such extremes that it is clearly having impacts on their mental health, it's hard to pass judgement without having a lot of details about where they're coming from.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Just Another Lurker posted:

Just ordered some FFP2/KN95 disposable masks for my monthly shopping trips.... every little helps.

edit: Here in UK have been double masking with cloth & paper ones until now, should i still double mask with the inner one being a KN95 or just use one?

Just use the KN95, anything on top of it isn't going to do anything useful and could potentially mess with the seal and make the protection from the KN95 worse (not that KN95s seal particularly well in my experience).

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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DickParasite posted:

The early pandemic messaging was all in telling people to wash their hands like a surgeon scrubbing in. There was also significant concern about it spreading on services - to the point where some people were worried they could get Covid from opening a letter that came from China. The CDC insisted hand washing would work and that masks wouldn't. Lol whoops.

I remember that one week where it was considered really important that you don't ever touch your face.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Raskolnikov2089 posted:

5 million? More likely 17 million. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates

Also the CFR is much higher than .5. We're currently sitting at 1.9% per Johns Hopkins

I don't think you can combine excess death numbers and CFR like that. CFR is specifically talking about known cases, the IFR (what percentage of actual infections die vs. just known infections) would likely be lower than 1.9% since untracked cases would be less likely to be fatal.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Darth TNT posted:

Except it’s less than 1 in 10. Could be anything below 1.

Calling 1% "almost 1 in 10" would be shockingly bad, I agree it's a bad headline but I don't think it's likely it's THAT bad.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Hippie Hedgehog posted:

Not sure I agree.

The arguments I can see for not giving a liver transplant to an alcoholic are obvious:

1. Practical/utilitarian argument: She's just going to ruin the new liver in a matter of years, and then need a new transplant. That liver is more valuable in a patient who can use it for decades.
Same argument can be used to argue that a younger patient should be prioritized over an older one, etc.

2. Moralistic argument: She brought liver failure on herself by drinking, she doesn't deserve a new one.

Denying people organ transplants isn't about managing a scarce resource generally, it's more about whether the impact of surgery, immunosuppressants, etc. are going to result in a net benefit. For people who don't do things that damage the new organ (like drinking for livers) and are compliant with medication a transplant almost always is the ideal option, but if someone is going to burn out a new liver or kidney rapidly the downsides start to outweigh the benefits.

Transplant seems like it just magically cures you, but in reality you're trading a chronic disease that will almost certainly kill you eventually to a chronic disease that you'll have for 20 years (at best) before you go back to your original chronic disease.

People will be denied living donor transplants for similar reasons, where there's no scarcity argument (the living donor in nearly all cases is going to donate to that recipient and that recipient alone). I'm pretty sure that most hospitals will put the same non-drinking requirements on living donor recipients, and you're dealing with the same panel who's going to approve or deny you (for either getting on the list or the transplant itself)

I think in any situation short of emergency triage doctor's don't ration resources due to scarcity - whoever would benefit the most always gets treatment.

enki42 fucked around with this message at 00:35 on Dec 12, 2021

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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The Canada app has been pretty pointless. It's federal, so at least there's not like a patchwork of apps (some provinces haven't adopted it because gently caress Trudeau or something), but like other people said, the only people using it are the people who aren't high risk anyway (people still talk about it and the QR code scanners "tracking you" even though they're completely incapable of it). As of May it had only logged 33,000 covid cases out of 1.3 million at that point.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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QuarkJets posted:

It's a colloquial term that means "long-term symptoms related to covid-19", I'm going to continue using it because I'm not a doctor talking to a patient

I think the point is that there's definitely a tendency to take facts like "25% of people experience long covid" and "long covid can include serious effect X', and start thinking / implying that "25% of people with COVID get serious effect X".

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Pennywise the Frown posted:

I just thought "long covid" is experiencing some type of long term effect.

That's it.

No specific anything. It's just a general term meaning that someone who got covid might experience some sort of persistent issue. I didn't think there was any other definition.

Yes, you're right, the problem with that is, without knowing the prevalence of the various effects, it's not really possible to say anything useful about Long COVID. An occasional headache or cough that lasts for 6 weeks is not a big deal in the grand scheme of things (certainly nothing we'd want to impose extra restrictions for), while permanent brain fog and shortness of breath is absolutely a big deal. Long COVID is both of those things, and I think there's a tendency for people who downplay COVID to assume that it's mostly the former, and people who magnify the dangers of COVID to assume it's mostly the latter.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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QuarkJets posted:

That does not imply that they believe all long covid cases result in conditions like Parkinson's, similar to how referring to it as "the boomer remover" did not mean that the person thought it killed all boomers

There's definitely a conflating of Long COVID with brain damage, which while it does absolutely happen, doesn't represent (I think?) the majority of long covid. There was as recently as today someone saying that some of the reason that service industries have gotten worse is because people have become more stupid due to long covid brain damage.

I think it can go the other way as well, its just as bad to assume that Long COVID always just mean "oh you had a cough for 30 days" or even worse, that it's always psychosomatic or whatever, there's just so little info that it's difficult to make any definitive statement about how long covid should inform risk, and people have a tendency to land on either extreme depending on their preconceived notions.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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On the Omicron front, apparently here in Ontario 21% of cases are Omicron as of today (it was estimated as 11% on Friday). Observed Rt is currently over 3. That's maybe a week and a half from the first reported cases of Omicron in the province.

So this definitely moves fast, I assume it will be dominant in less than a week.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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goddamnedtwisto posted:

lockdown stuff

We're in the same boat in Ontario, Canada, complete with the trial balloons starting to come out about how we might need more restrictive measures and we should limit gatherings during holidays. Last year we didn't go into complete lockdown until boxing day, which was way too late, but wouldn't want to interrupt christmas consumerism i guess.

The problem here is very much that the only people who are going to follow private gathering restrictions are the ones probably least likely to spread anything anyway. 50% of people complied in December of 2020, this year I'd be surprised if 10-20% of people meaningfully changed their behaviour. The only hesitation about gathering I've seen or heard at all is whether unvaccinated relatives are allowed.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Violating public health restrictions is pretty much always selfish IMO, but I can't really fault people who are accepting some level of risk that's well within what their country has decided to set as appropriate behaviour. Individual actions are never going to solve the pandemic on it's own, and acting like you're in a country that actually tries to keep COVID out is not actually going to do anything material, because everyone else isn't acting like that, and so you're making pretty much zero impact on how much COVID is spreading in your area.

Manage your risk according based on protecting you and your close contacts, trying to manage risk as some misguided attempt to help out society isn't going to work if the society you're in is mostly working against that.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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We did curbside pickup for a while, but yeah, I don't think I've had the order completely correct once. We'll probably go back for a bit with Omicron, but I'm not looking forward to it.

I already plan meals pretty heavily, so I'm rarely actually browsing in the grocery store, but when something isn't available / looks bad, it's nice to actually look at alternatives instead of having to come up with something on the spot for an impatient 18 year old on the phone (or have them pick or just get it wrong and get something completely insane as a replacement, like a shoulder roast replacing pork chops)

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Today my hospital changed policies apparently and wearing a surgical mask over a N95 is no longer acceptable, you have to remove whatever mask you're wearing first. Awesome plan for a room full of recent transplant patients on loads of immunosuppression and waiting for bloodwork.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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I get wearing a surgical mask over mine, it makes sense for them to have a consistent policy and it's unrealistic to expect the people doing the screening to be able to assess the quality of a mask (and especially if you've just worn the same one for weeks). Making you take a better mask off is sort of a dick move though.

I'm going to bring a wrapped new mask next time and see if that makes a difference.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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satanic splash-back posted:

It won't because the reason you're forced to take their mask is because the person doing the mask checking is not going to bother assessing if it is clean/dirty/new/old. That's a waste of their time compared to just telling you to shut the gently caress up and put on their mask.

It's not matter of safety for you, it's a matter of time spent and safety for the employees who have to keep arguing with entitled people who won't just follow the rules.

I get it, I just wish that there could be some kind of accommodation when there's a new variant doubling cases every 3 days (and very active where I am), and I'm immunocompromised.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Zeriel posted:

We still have to get flu shots for a virus we found 100 years ago. This pandemic will not end in our lifetimes.

The 1918 influenza pandemic has been over for a long time, dude. COVID will almost for sure be around throughout our lifetimes, and it's WAY too premature to say it's going to be endemic anytime soon, but the existence of a virus does not mean that a pandemic isn't over.

enki42 fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Dec 17, 2021

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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smackfu posted:

Who has been boosted for four months already?

I got my third shot in mid-August (in Canada). I'm technically actually eligible for a fourth shot now (we reduced our time before a booster to 3 months, and they've allowed severely immunocompromised people to get their fourth shot if they are eligible by time)

Appointments are apparently booked out to April in some locations though, and getting anything before mid-January is a pipe dream. Plus it's a pain in the rear end to try to explain all this stuff to a pharmacy (for the third dose they looked at me like I was a crazy person), so I'll wait for my transplant clinic to get something sorted out.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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a hot gujju bhabhi posted:

The actual immunocompromised are exceptionally careful about their contact with people, I have a very close friend who is severely immunocompromised. Anti vaxxers are the ones who will die, and I can't say I really care after giving them a full year to protect themselves. I mean, there is a point where we have to just admit as a planet that we do now have a new flu, that is more severe, but is nonetheless here to stay. We're not going to eradicate it, we can only vaccinate and move on. Improve the vaccines each year, etc. Locking down the whole world post-vaccination and destroying lives is not a long term solution.

The actual immunocompromised (speaking as one) are careful, that's true, but careful isn't perfect protection and particularly when COVID is widespread enough it's nearly impossible to protect yourself completely. I have 2 kids who go to school and a wife who has a job that demands that she goes onsite some days (thankfully not 100% of the time). They all wear good masks (KN94 style masks for the kids, and a N95 for my wife) and are super careful, but we don't have perfect protection (kids need to take their masks off for lunch, my wife just found out there was a COVID outbreak at her work and even masks aren't perfect).

With a well-managed wave, this is probably a reasonable risk, in a let it rip world, especially with Omicron, it's basically impossible to protect yourself enough to any confidence you won't catch it.

This is often presented as a binary option, and it doesn't have to be. I'm personally of the opinion that hard lockdown Covid zero strategies are not practical in most places, but that doesn't mean that things like providing PPE or rapid tests, setting capacity limits, mask mandates, vaccine passports etc. aren't appropriate during waves (or in the case of mask mandates, basically all the time).

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Pinecone Sample posted:

We didn't see this coming pretty obviously referred to the global scientific community not expecting that a new highly-contagious variant had already gotten pretty much everywhere by the time it was identified, but yeah, okay, goons have vaguely been prophesying the next doomtastic variant would arise sooner or later and are smarter than Kamala Harris.

If you always predict the worst possible outcome at all times you can never be wrong (the times when it wasn't so bad was just gallows humour of course)

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Cretin90 posted:

I mean, off the top of the head I could say target comorbidities with a) National exercise campaign to reduce weight, obesity, hypertension, cardiac disease and b) even a LITTLE prescription drug reform to make it cheaper and easier to get treatment for aforementioned comorbidities.

You should do these things in normal times to help pandemics be less impactful (along with a whole host of other reasons) but they're fairly useless in dealing with an actual currently occurring pandemic. It's sort of like buying a budgeting and money management book for someone who's about to be beaten up by loan sharks for gambling debts, it's way too late for that to have a useful effect.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Fluffy Bunnies posted:

I said this in cspam but while I certainly hope that it is a legit silver bullet and just loving destroys this trash, I also cannot wait for the conspiracy theorists to start screaming about how They've had this vax all along and now They're intentionally ending the pandemic because They've met Their goals and just go full-blown nuts.

(I don't know who They will be but I assume the conspiracy nuts will default to The New World Order. gently caress you, Hulk Hogan.)

World leaders all maniacally laughing about how they achieved their devious plan of tanking their economies and making people wear a piece of cloth over their faces for a couple of years.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Also I think I heard that literally no restrictions was a bit overstated (or at least very short lived), and on top of that they probably still had more practical prevention than the US that citizens took on themselves (which lol if you expected that to happen in 'murica).

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Well, brought a brand new n95 to the hospital. Still forced to take it off and replace it with a surgical mask. The staff are now wearing n95s which feels like an extra bonus slap in the face.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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greazeball posted:

They wouldn't let you put the surgical mask on top? I've heard they're usually ok with that, they usually force certain mask choices on everyone because there's always someone coming in with a sabotaged mask that looks real or something like that.

My hospital has been super weird about it lately.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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GoodyTwoShoes posted:

I'm at the grasping-at-straws stage of fighting covid, so I went ahead and tried the benedryl-&-milk thing that came up around Xmas. [insert massive sigh here] No miracle cure. I'm on Day 108 of quarantine, no change in my symptoms beyond the usual good day/bad day on shortness-of-breath.

There's really no reason to quarantine that long with long COVID. Whatever long COVID is, it's almost certainly not live virus in your system after 3 months.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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greazeball posted:

This is a pretty interesting angle to track the effects of the pandemic. The excess death charts don't seem to persuade some people because of "political" interference or whatever, but these are life insurance payouts. That'll make them pay attention, right? :(

If the actual data is just excess deaths, bet you anything they'll insist they are suicides due to lockdowns or something like that.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Got my 4th dose this morning, I confused the gently caress out of everyone there since it was only officially announced yesterday (my clinic sent me a letter earlier in the week though)

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:

Yeah I probably should have put way more caveats on it when I posted it but I can't find a similar better graphic that explains the difference between mask quality in such simple terms. :sweatdrop:

If I had to guess, someone probably took "N95s are X% more effective than nothing" and the 15 minute exposure number and just did a bunch of math. The specific numbers are pretty meaningless, but the core truth of "unfitted N95s are X% better" is likely accurate.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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The Walrus posted:

I don't know why there's not a louder contingent of immune suppressed people saying 'no actually its not ok if this becomes endemic, we like going outside'

People just seem to think this only affects them and they need to see all the people like my sister that literally are now confined to their apartments if they don't want to fear death constantly.

Actually honest to god endemic is inevitable, and whatever, we have to watch out for a bunch of poo poo that most people don't need to worry about anyway that's incredibly common (like thrush and CMV) and it's abundantly clear that there's zero chance that COVID is actually eliminated, even if every government in the world suddenly becomes China.

But a wave with 3 million cases (that we know of) in a single day is not endemic by any stretch.

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enki42
Jun 11, 2001
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coronatae posted:

I take psychic damage every time a patient comes in wearing one of these bad boys. Luckily none of them have been mine to deal with.

I see a few of these in the grocery store I go to, it's basically just mocking the concept of a mask:

https://www.walmart.com/ip/CoMiracle-10-Pcs-Clear-Face-Mask-Smile-Transparent-Shields-Reusable-Anti-fog-Shields-Upgraded-Version/251799225

best review:

quote:

Effective to squash pandemic IF taking Ivermectin

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