|
tk posted:UW’s lab showed a dip in tests on the 19th, but back up on the 20th (with similar detections rates) UW’s is the full day compared to through 4PM on that graphics, so no idea how that relates. Their data processing team got behind while building their online dashboard and they're slowly catching up. The actual tests/clinical data kept going at the previous days rate.
|
#
¿
Mar 21, 2020 19:52
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 15, 2024 01:03 |
|
|
three posted:We're not on the same trajectory. Fifteen people in that one nursing home in was died of viral pneumonia and they exposed the entire fire dept before they started testing any of them. We have a lot of mysterious deaths that weren't tested.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 21, 2020 22:01
|
|
|
Fojar38 posted:Yeah I was just thinking this. Make no mistake, this is really bad and one for the history books, but it probably isn't going to top HIV/AIDS in terms of sheer prevalence and deaths caused, as well as its overall impact on society. Comparisons to outbreaks that predate antibiotics and the field of virology aren't really warranted. We have no idea the long term consequences for survivors of this disease.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 26, 2020 06:26
|
|
|
Baronash posted:No, but we do see most folks making full recoveries over the short term, with the body responding like it’s supposed to. Fully a third of hospitalized survivors are walking out of the hospital with permanently reduced lung function. We're talking about something like 50 million people with that complication by the time this is over. A polio generation.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 26, 2020 07:34
|
|
|
Farmer Crack-rear end posted:Oh yeah I've been meaning to ask, those models that suggest "well maybe we can "open things up" for a few weeks and then clamp back down", are they taking into account the likelihood that a lot of cooped up people are going to rush to be around each other again and deliberately seek out as much human contact as they can before they're put back in time-out? Would you be eager to go lick all your friends right after hell virus lockdown was lifted? A few people would but I don't think that's most people. There'd be a ramp up over time.
|
|
#
¿
Mar 28, 2020 20:20
|
|
|
Owlofcreamcheese posted:I feel like some group or country is going to bypass the long testing period on vaccines and it might be a disaster and it might be a “no! You can’t simply vaccinate people with this vaccine that has not been tested for years”/“haha, vaccine machine goes brrrr” comic Nooooo you can't just amplify my own immune response and turn my organs into soup noooooooo haha cytokine machine goes brrrrr
|
|
#
¿
Apr 13, 2020 07:13
|
|
|
runoverbobby posted:I'm not sure I understand the downside of increasing the sample size. Who cares about Gilead's intentions? That seems irrelevant. Won't increasing the sample size give us more realistic information regardless of the intention behind it? If you're 95% confident of a result, get a negative, and then rather than go "ok that didn't work" you reshuffle or add participants in order to try to game out a win, it is a statistical certainty that eventually you will get a positive result that is simply the result of random chance. That's why you have to do the power calculation in advance rather than being allowed to alter the experiment design every time you don't like the outcome.
|
|
#
¿
Apr 18, 2020 20:53
|
|
|
WOWEE ZOWEE posted:So it seems like the Trump admin is going all in with the Wuhan lab origin bullshit: They're going with the totally unprovable "this escaped from a Chinese lab but it wasn't modified there, they just had it and it got out" angle.
|
|
#
¿
May 3, 2020 20:54
|
|
|
Tim Whatley posted:loving loser behind me waiting to go into the bank today with no mask. A really old dude comes out and asks where his mask is and he goes "It doesn't do anything." Then he threw a fit because surprise, the bank wouldn't let him in. "It lets you go into the bank."
|
|
#
¿
May 17, 2020 08:41
|
|
|
Discendo Vox posted:IP you do understand the proposal still involves the normal clinical trials process, right? They're just making the product prior to clinical trials knowing that most if it will be disposed of as inferior/ineffective/unsafe. Yeah and if some bad poo poo starts to come out of those clinical trials, having 300 million doses of the poo poo on hand waiting to go out across the country definitely won't create a perverse incentive to suppress those results and claim everything is all good long enough to get everyone vaccinated so we can open 'er up.
|
|
#
¿
May 17, 2020 21:38
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:You love to see it. Doesn't understand how she got it. Also had extended family over repeatedly. And they're sick. HM Ed: suspect #2: extramarital affair
|
|
#
¿
May 22, 2020 06:30
|
|
|
Platystemon posted:I worry that infections within schools will get out of control. A lot of kids (not as a percentage I hope, but in absolute terms) are going to get this Kawasaki-like illness weeks or months after being infected.
|
|
#
¿
May 25, 2020 09:24
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:The accepted conventional timeline is that probably the first cases hit the US somewhere between the last week or two of december (maybe) but definitely was here within the first week or two of january as people GTFO'd from wuhan specifically and China generally both for the start of the school year and as news of the incoming lockdown spread. The US had no travel restrictions against people who had been in China at that time and the early west coast cases were of strains that trace back to china (notably early east coast cases primarily are of Italian and European strains). Trevor Bedford (Seattle Flu Study participant who identified early community spread in King County WA) recently revised his hypothesis and now thinks that the Washington outbreak originated from a community outbreak in Vancouver BC. The direct-from-China strain from WA1 is a cousin of that virus but not the originator of the outbreak.
|
|
#
¿
May 28, 2020 20:38
|
|
|
pthighs posted:Thanks. Some more searching around seems to indicate that they don't really know the risks very well, as we don't have the infrastructure in place to track people who get sick a number of days after getting off an airplane. So it sounds like a hard no for any unnecessary travel. If anyone asks you why flying is really stupid right now just show them this graphic of how SARS spread on an airplane back in 2003 vs how the government treats exposure risk on an airplane. 
|
|
#
¿
Dec 29, 2020 04:42
|
|
|
cant cook creole bream posted:Covid 19 and SARS 2003 are not the same. Yeah you're right, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 are in fact two completely different novel coronaviruses. One of the biggest differences is that the current pandemic virus is far more transmissible when considered at the population level, so with that knowledge in hand you should definitely disregard my post and go get on a plane right now.
|
|
#
¿
Dec 29, 2020 10:00
|
|
|
Doctor Nutt posted:Hey, this was really nice and will be especially helpful when people start badgering me about going out and back to normal once I am able to get vaccinated. Imagine that you get a mild case of the flu, like a bad cold. Your body is fighting the disease effectively, and all you need is some Advil and a little rest. Your body is still shedding some amount of live, active virus. How much is dependent on your initial infective dose, your own immune system, tons of factors. But there's still going to be some. You can then pass that live virus on to someone else, and the flu can kill them just as easily as it could before. How likely that is in the real world depends on how much live virus you're shedding and from where and for how long. Sterilizing immunity vaccines basically make that amount of live/active virus so tiny that it's negligible chance that you can pass it on. This is measles - the virus provokes an immune response within a matter of hours in vaccinated individuals and the infection never gets big enough to make most vaccinated people infectious in a practical sense. What we don't know is, how much live virus can you expect from a vaccinated individual who is infected with sars cov 2? Is it going to be so small that that person is effectively taken off the board as a vector of spread in the same way as measles? Are they going to be spreading asymptomatically for days or weeks the exact same way that someone does with COVID-19 and no vaccine? Something in between? Different by age? We don't really know. One educated guess we can make is that it's not going to be as effective as the measles vaccine, because sars cov 2 can take a long time to provoke any immune response at all as it sits in the upper respiratory tract where the immune system has less access. If the immune system can't "see" the virus because it's just infecting a few surface epithelial cells in the sinuses, the vaccine might not be making any difference at all at that point. We can also make an educated guess that there's going to be a pretty broad spectrum of outcomes because the course of COVID-19 itself is such a clown show of random incubation times, symptoms, and transmissibility results as a baseline disease. And on top of that, each vaccine might have a different result, and there could also be large demographic variability in whether a particular vaccine provokes sterilizing immunity. So really the vaccines should not immediately be used as an excuse to change behavior at all. They will be, but that's just as loving stupid as re-opening indoor dining - people acting as if the disease has been eradicated once they're vaccinated could easily trigger another outbreak surge.
|
|
#
¿
Dec 30, 2020 21:16
|
|
|
Nothingtoseehere posted:Covid protecting only you is still enough for society to be able to go back to normal though - the reason we shut down societies over covid is that it can easily spread into vulnerable populations and kill 1%-2% of your population while collapsing your medical infrastructure. If the vulnerable are vaccinated, then covid doesn't kill or cripple enough people to make up for all the damage it's doing to peoples lives and livelihoods. The point is not total eradication of the disease - we've very rarely achieved that. It's that making it a disease we can live with, like the current flu or various tropical diseases. Uh, the LA County hospital system is still going to collapse even with all their front-line medical personnel and nursing homes vaccinated. A mass outbreak in the general population will still do that until the majority of the population is vaccinated.
|
|
#
¿
Dec 30, 2020 22:15
|
|
|
Nothingtoseehere posted:By vulnerable groups, I'm using the UK government definition, which is to say "everyone over 50" The point being that the average 30something goon does not and will not get vaccinated before the pandemic is "over", that is not so harmful to society to shut down over it. That is literally a policy under which a bonus million or so people die. In a hospital collapse situation where most people under 50 are not vaccinated at the time restrictions are removed, about half of these ICU admissions among 18-54s becomes a fatality.  https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-young-people-hospitalized-covid-19-chart/ And that's not even counting the excess mortality this year among people younger than 50 that's not conclusively linked to COVID by a test result. quote:The largest burden of Covid-19 has undoubtedly fallen on people older than 65; they account for around 80 percent of deaths in the United States. But if we momentarily eclipse that from our mind’s eye, something else becomes visible: The corona of this virus.
|
|
#
¿
Dec 30, 2020 22:39
|
|
|
Shifty Pony posted:The preliminary results for the ModeRNA vaccine showed something like a ~65% drop in detectable infections for the vaccine branch when they swabbed everyone at the second shot. Considering that Pfizer is designed to target the same viral protein, that we test for infections by sampling the same places the virus spreads from, and that the decrease was after a single dose I think there is good reason to be hopeful that the vaccine will significantly cut spread and that vaccinated people won't turn into asymptomatic super-spreaders. I'm really optimistic about the mRNA vaccines but we need actual population level data about the transmissibility of the infection from vaccinated people before making decisions like lifting distancing restrictions, allowing indoor dining, and so on. That's the missing factor in the equation that will predict whether lifting those restrictions results in a dozen extra deaths or a thousand or a hundred thousand. However I suspect as older and richer people get access to the vaccine, we'll instead see political support for restrictions evaporate long before the level of penetration where even a high-efficacy sterilizing immunity vaccine would make a difference in the overall pace of the pandemic, then we'll see state and local governments shrug and end the restrictions, then we'll see some major outbreak waves as a direct result of that. People are really looking for excuses for this to be over and "meemaw got the shot" is more than plausible enough.
|
|
#
¿
Dec 30, 2020 23:19
|
|
|
Fallom posted:People are going to die while some maga creep no-shows his specially scheduled appointment and they chuck his vaccine into the trash bin Would you describe a pregnant asian nurse who knows that the safety trials didn't include any pregnant women at all and underrepresented asians as a "maga chud" because she doesn't trust the Trump CDC and HHS people that it's totally fine anyway just trust us
|
|
#
¿
Jan 1, 2021 03:18
|
|
|
Herstory Begins Now posted:Presumably the big things causing the recent upticks in cases are (in no particular order) 1) schools 2) colleges 3) holiday travel 4) people becoming more lax in their precautions and probably 5) covid skeptic conspiracy poo poo somehow becoming an even bigger thing than ever Also the people going out to have parties have completely moved those inside now because it's cold which seems to transform "a person who went got covid" into "most of the people who went got covid."
|
|
#
¿
Jan 3, 2021 06:56
|
|
|
Buckwheat Sings posted:I'm hoping it ramps up once Biden is in office. It's pretty apparent Trump is dragging his feet on literally everything considering that all the places with the vaccine have no marching orders or really anything. I also hope that, but Biden hasn't really stated any actual plan to ramp up vaccine delivery, his "we'll deliver 100 million doses" promise is about par for where we're going to be at anyway and a lot of non-Trump poo poo is also driving the car into one tree after another. E.g., the Democratic governor of NY just threatened to fine medical staff a million dollars and strip them of their licenses if they put a needle in the wrong arm.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 3, 2021 20:53
|
|
|
That's cool, but we were talking about vaccine delivery.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 3, 2021 21:08
|
|
|
cr0y posted:How exactly is Biden supposed to speed up vaccine manfucturing. Our current woes seem to be more on the distribution logistics side than manufacturing, but either way, my point is that I would not expect February or March to be less of a shitshow with vaccine deployment because Trump is gone and I would definitely not be making any nonrefundable travel plans earlier than next Christmas.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 3, 2021 21:18
|
|
|
Pick posted:He is not currently the president, that's January 20. Goalposts breaking the sound barrier in here today
|
|
#
¿
Jan 3, 2021 21:30
|
|
|
Green Nail Polish posted:Cuomo appears to be obsessed with 100% vaccinating nursing home residents before moving on to vaccinate anybody else. Clearly he's a little upset about having killed so many of them back in March. Threatening medical providers with a million dollar fine and loss of their license for vaccinating the wrong person is straight up a cudgel to use against his political enemies and it will 100% result in vaccine doses expiring on the shelf. Launch Cuomo into the loving sun.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 3, 2021 22:44
|
|
|
When they said the UK strain is up to 70% more transmissible than the existing SARS-COV-2 strains, they meant specifically in the context of being blown out the exhaust port of an inflatable Christmas tree costume at a holiday party
|
|
#
¿
Jan 4, 2021 06:37
|
|
|
Ornery and Hornery posted:There was a big (n=65,000?) study on kiddos in South Korea that had tentative findings that while kids spread it in school, it spread at a rate lower than it would have been for adults in similar conditions. https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1345661881487392769?s=20
|
|
#
¿
Jan 4, 2021 18:00
|
|
|
HelloSailorSign posted:lmao this is such an awful idea We're literally throwing doses in the garbage right now because we're being so loving precious about only the right people getting vaccinated.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2021 06:55
|
|
|
The optimum distribution strategy isn't to means test the vaccine, it's the AC-130 gunship scene from Call of Duty: Modern Warfare except with shots. Just vaccinate everyone who doesn't run fast enough.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2021 07:00
|
|
|
dog nougat posted:So a friend of mine in all likelihood has the virus and was exposed by her sister unwittingly several days ago. Yesterday I went and dropped off a care package for her. Late last night and today she's exhibiting flu-like symptoms. We maintained outdoor social distancing and I was masked the entire time, she did remove her mask briefly to eat several cookies I brought her, but we were about 10 feet apart and outside the entire time. Perhaps the most questionable thing I did was hold her dog and give her (dog) some poochy kisses cuz the pup and I love one another and I wasn't really thinking at the time. My friend is going to get tested this morning, not sure if it's going to be a rapid test or just regular test. It's been about 3-4 days since her initial exposure to a carrier, so reasonably ample time to not bring back a false negative. Get tested, people are basically incapable of maintaining appropriate distance when near their friends and family no matter how good a job they think they're doing and the fact that you stayed long enough to talk and also picked up the dog and it let it lick your face is a dead giveaway. Dogs are capable of spreading the virus simply by being coated in it inside an infected person's house and then getting it on you, even if that's unlikely compared to aerosol spread, and a few dogs have actually been infected with COVID: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/pets.html - The CDC's official guidance is that if you are quarantined, your pets should be quarantined in the same way. dog nougat posted:Ok, seems like low-ish risk for exposure on my part. Yeah I should've just dropped the package off and not interacted with her at all, but she was literally walking outside her door right as I arrived so we talked in person for a few minutes. I was very cognizant not to get close to her, but the dog ran up to me. It's best that I quarantine for a few days and go get tested. This assumes that she tests positive, which does seem likely given the symptoms. If she comes back negative I'm probably fine, but don't really want to risk exposing anyone else. Better safe than sorry!
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2021 18:48
|
|
|
Cabbages and Kings posted:They both got infected and tested positive in August. He maintains that they were staying home and leaving only for shopping and that their recreation had been limited to "being in the woods by themselves", so he's somewhat confused how they got it at all, but mostly just seems unhappy that it's been such an awful, tremendous, life-changing thing. If you're already avoiding restaurants, gyms, the office, and indoor gatherings then the low probability transmission routes suddenly matter a lot more for your personal risk profile. It's pretty long odds to get infected via a ballistic droplet outside from an anti-masker or dicknoser but once you eliminate all the high likelihood routes it's stuff like that that will get you sick. HelloSailorSign posted:Possibly why 501.V2 and B.1.1.7 are more transmissible are that they're spitting out more viral particles into the air, which is bypassing one of the features of COVID we've been taking advantage of, that it requires a certain number of viral particles to take hold and prolonged exposure is what's done the trick. If those are able to cause more infections in simply passing by another, then things like grocery shopping, while necessary, will carry more risk than now. More viral particle shedding by the pre-symptomatic (or a longer mean pre-symptomatic period) seems plausible to me since the known variants aren't apparently more virulent, which you would expect if the virus had gotten better at invading cells somehow. But it's hard to tell if that translates into "walking by someone in the store is now a statistically significant risk" or "ballistic droplets are now more infectious" or "the 'close contact' time should now be 10 minutes rather than 15" or all three without a bunch of study of the new variant's spread in the real world from known index cases. This would all be a lot easier if there weren't millions of concurrent infections generating these variants just saying. The Oldest Man fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Jan 5, 2021 |
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2021 20:24
|
|
|
redreader posted:I used to think that but I'm starting to think that people who aren't curious about this will be like 'airlines are safe or they'd be closed, everything's fine if you mask up, it's not a problem'. If you're not terminally online, it's pretty hard to avoid the gravitational pull of everyone with an ad budget in our society continually bombarding you with messages that minimize the disease and glamorize getting on planes, going to bars, and licking your friends' faces. That's not to excuse them; people who had the privilege of describing themselves as "not being political" or "not following the news" are now actively the enemy of everyone staying alive at this point.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2021 21:20
|
|
|
HelloSailorSign posted:Now teachers and all associated support personnel should be next in line for vaccines after healthcare workers. We'll have to see when they start getting vaccine data on young kids. Unfortunately if we re-open schools before all the kids get vaccinated, it's going to spike the outbreak again: https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1345661874302578689 https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1345661881487392769 It absolutely does transmit to and between kids, and from kids to adults in their household at shockingly high rates compared to adult-to-adult household transmission, despite all the gaslighting about kids not spreading it based on very low testing rates and relatively higher rates of asymptomatic cases in kids.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 5, 2021 23:55
|
|
|
HelloSailorSign posted:Yes, that's correct. I'm still holding out some hope that everyone who wants a shot will be able to get it by next September, that we won't get vaccine resistant strains due to the botched management, and that maybe we can just catch a break on this one.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 6, 2021 00:00
|
|
|
freebooter posted:Question about how the flu kills all those tens of thousands of people a year normally: how? Since we have a vaccine? I know it's the elderly and vulnerable but surely they're the people who would go and get vaccinated? Are there just enough of them who don't that we have that death toll? Or is the flu vaccine just not that effective because of the constant mutations and new strains? No vaccine is 100% effective, no vaccine is administered to 100% of the population. The flu vaccine is actually pretty poor on both measures since there's no mandate that you ever have to get it and you have to get a new one every year. Oh yeah and our hellcountry makes it cost money for the uninsured who frequently don't have it in many places, or makes free flu shots hard to access.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 6, 2021 00:50
|
|
|
LifeLynx posted:Anyone else have friends like that? Not anymore.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 6, 2021 01:10
|
|
|
Well that ain't goodquote:Gottlieb cited experimental evidence from Bloom Lab, and explained 501.V2 does appear to partially escape prior immunity. It means that some of the antibodies people produce when they get infected with Covid, as well as the antibody drugs, may not be quite as effective.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 6, 2021 17:07
|
|
|
Regarde Aduck posted:Does the vaccine still protect against it, at least? We don't know. I'm guessing they meant monoclonal antibody treatments (which are for rich people only), which target a single binding site on the viral surface protein, so they're relatively easy to evade. The mRNA vaccines code for the entire viral spike structure, which means your body will respond with a variety of antibodies to attack multiple binding sites. My best guess is that they'd be somewhere between 0 and 100% effective against this type of variant and the same goes for naturally-acquired immunity after an infection with the original variant hope this helps
|
|
#
¿
Jan 6, 2021 20:05
|
|
|
|
| # ¿ May 15, 2024 01:03 |
|
|
It's pretty irresponsible to just say "yes" when a) we know the variant evades immunity to at least one type of antibody that was effective against the original strain and b) there's no data on vaccine efficacy specifically. The answer is that we don't know and won't know until more studies are done.
|
|
#
¿
Jan 6, 2021 20:07
|
|