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Mar 1, 2020 00:43
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Luckyellow posted:Turns out doctors and nurses are racists too. Oh yeah, that much is obvious. It sounded like medical racism was something a bit more specific.
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Mar 1, 2020 00:46
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How exactly are the mortality rates of the seasonal flu calculated? I have no real idea if I actually had the flu last year and I imagine a lot of others also had extremely mild cases which are borderline nonexistant. How do the flu statistics account for that? The only reasonable way to test that would be to pick N random people on the street, test all of them for infection and for the n people who have it, check if they survive the season, without actually telling them what the tests said. But that would be a bit amoral, I guess.
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Mar 5, 2020 10:00
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Omobono posted:No he's not and five seconds thinking and following up on your argument shows why. For ALL diseases (I'm mostly thinking about the flu) there are many, many cases that never present and thus are not counted into the mortality rate. So why exactly are you not doing the same calculations on flu mortality? i.e. a room filled with 25 infected people would have an expected value of deaths below 1.
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Mar 5, 2020 10:07
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Jaxyon posted:I just had a convo with a coworker who says that actually COVID-19 is down below 1% and that the places that are seeing the higher rates are places with bad healthcare like China. Is there a betting market for the percentage yet?
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Mar 5, 2020 22:42
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Those British numbers just don't make sense to me. How are there 6726 cases with 336 deaths? That's a 5% mortality rate. Even more if you account for the fact that the deaths are delayed and the numbers are growing. In contrast, apparently, Germany has 29056 infected with 123 deaths. That rounds to 0.4%. What causes this massive discrepancy? I know that German hospitals are well equipped and have way more capacity, but the British healthcare isn't atrociously bad. Is Britain underdiagnosed by a factor of ten? Of course, due to the fact that Italy is completely overwhelmed those numbers are even worse with a ratio of close to 10% So how come Germany seems relatively fine, with regards to the mortality rate? Do you think there are just a lot of people who coincidentally died from "unrelated" pneumonia lately? "No need to test them." It feels like Germany is some kind of global outlier.
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Mar 24, 2020 00:23
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golden bubble posted:Singapore currently has more cases of Covid19 directly imported from the UK than they have directly imported from China. I wouldn't be surprised if they are about 5x underdiagnosed right now. The thing is, the numbers in most European countries reflect Britain's way more than Germany's. Is everyone except Germany undertesting by a lot? It actually does feel like there are far to few tests in Germany still, because the official requirement for a test is that you had contact to an infected person, or recently went to a high risk region (those are hopelessly outdated.) Another weird thing about the German numbers is that the recovery rate appears ridiculously low. But that's mainly because we have long quarantines and no obligation to announce recoveries to any authorities. Basically, the German numbers look like people would catch the virus and never let go of it, because they don't die and don't heal. Ika posted:
Hi, NRW buddy. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 00:49 on Mar 24, 2020 |
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Mar 24, 2020 00:45
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Ika posted:As mentioned in my other reply, 14 days ago there were only 1.2 known cases. Assuming a recovery time of two weeks there could only be 1200 healed people at most. That is technically incorrect. You are assuming that all those cases just started when they were discovered. It's quite likely that a lot of cases were diagnosed when they were already 10 days in, so that they could heal within a shorter time. If someone is dignosed right now who has had the virus for weeks and is basically through, there would be no real delay between reporting the case and the recovery.
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Mar 24, 2020 00:53
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I would offhandly assume that not all of these people need to go to an ER right now. This random lady seems to agree with my asumptintion. https://twitter.com/jenniferenyc/status/1242117233284874243
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Mar 24, 2020 09:43
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thewalk posted:Stock market is gambling shrug Yes. Don't gamble.
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Mar 24, 2020 23:48
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Liberals putting environmental progress before human suffering. Unlike the Republicans who understand that making humans suffer is the first priority.
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Mar 25, 2020 23:15
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Randarkman posted:I read an article that speculated that Italy's very high birth rate might be attributed to there being alot of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in Italian hospitals. Supposedly they've been very generous with their application of antibiotics in treatment there for years and they've at times struggled with hospital patients getting infected by resistant bacteria. Also secondary bacterial infection has been reported for a lot of the fatalities, according to that article, and it may be occuring much more often because patients (particularly elderly patients) with coronavirus have a pretty weakened and overloaded immune system. That's pretty specific speculating. Also I don't buy it. The death rates in Spain aren't that much different from Italy and the USA will catch up soon. Germany is still a bit of an outlier though. Meanwhile the cumulative number of confirmed Corona-deaths actually decreases in Russia. For some reason there are a lot of freak pneumonia cases though.
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Mar 26, 2020 23:45
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enraged_camel posted:We have nowhere nearly enough data to determine how frequently covid-19 mutates. Compared to the flu and similar strains, we can know that pretty definitively. The flu is continously mutating all the time. There are two reasons for that. 1: Flu is a wild cocktail of different viruses which are kinda similar. Some are moire dangerous than others, each has a chance to mutate. 2. Each of those "Flu-strains" consists of DNA which is segmented. Basically you have n pieces of DNA, which break apart kinda easily and might reform in one of n! different permutation. The new DNA is mostly the same but the different order confuses antibodies so that they can't detect the new strain. Neither of these points apply to this virus, which implies that mutations are far less likely. Of course regular mutation might still be a thing, but that's a comparatively little change, where big differences are unlikely. Some As will get swapped for some Ts or Gs.
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Mar 28, 2020 23:52
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enraged_camel posted:This thing is far more contagious than the flu, which means a much larger number of hosts. Which means a much greater chance to mutate. Are you sure about that? I know that the "regular flu" (if you could define such a thing) has a way smaller rate of spread. But that doesn't mean it's always this way. There have been flu seasons where pretty much everyone was infected, with incredibly mild symptoms, which just went away after a few days and were barely noticeable. I doubt that corona is spreading wider than every version of influenza in history. Also the factors I mentioned make it way less likely to mutate. In order to level that out by sheer numbers you would need to have hundreds or thosand times the number of infected people. I am pulling these numbers out of my rear end, but if ten times as many people have the corona compared to the flu, the flu is still way way more like to mutate into something else. VVVV Yeah, this too. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Mar 29, 2020 |
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Mar 29, 2020 00:13
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Spaced God posted:Man, the one thing about quarantine is this fucks with my sleep schedule hardcore. I'm regularly sleeping like 15-19 hours a night and going to bed at like 9AM. I'm so not excited to get back to an office and classroom lmao Use an alarm clock. Seriously, sleeping 19 hours is incredibly unhealthy.
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Mar 29, 2020 00:18
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Ice Phisherman posted:This isn't rocket science. It's depression. It's surprisingly common. A lot of people have had it, including me. For what it's worth, I totally agree that sleeping 4/5 of the day away is a major sign of depression. But directly making the jump to self-harm feels a bit offensive and reductive.
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Mar 29, 2020 01:12
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Crumbskull posted:Me too, I hope thats how it shakes out so I can get back to the store. At a ton of the grocery stores in my town a bunch of vulnerable and elderly people are still working to keep them open and [THEY WILL NEVER GET SICK, NO REASON TO PANIC, IF THEY DO GET SICK THEY WILL IMMEDIATELY BE REPLACED BY ???? AND THE STORES WILL NOT NEED TO CLOSE FOR EVEN A MINUTE] A lot of service industry workers were laid off recently. Unless the Republican fear of mass spread laziness caused by unemployment benefits turns out to be correct, there will be plenty bodies to fuel the capitalist system in stores. I hope you get well soon.
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Mar 29, 2020 01:18
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kiimo posted:The air quality is so much better here Yeah, single handedly is a massive overstatement. Also, I guess those trees kinda helped somewhat.
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Mar 30, 2020 23:04
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Uncle Wemus posted:I get the feeling Trumps not going to win New York in November He did win the primary this year.
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Apr 1, 2020 00:59
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Quick medicinal question: What happens to infected blood outside of the human body? If the blood is inside of some container, would the antibodies start to fight it, or would the virus completely overwhelm the blood cells? If it's the first, would injecting this blood back into a body give partial immunity? I basically have no idea how antibodies work or how they learn, or retain their information. is a certain organ involved? Or a set of them?
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Apr 5, 2020 11:29
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Lord Stimperor posted:Is this where Germany then is also expected to prevent Drager from selling ventilators as next step No, you see American lives are more important than those in other so called countries. Everyone needs to bow.
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Apr 5, 2020 12:44
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As a German I do sort of agree. The situation is more acute in the USA right now. But that's completely due to the mismanagement. But there are still way to few masks around here. Straight up stealing our stuff is not justified here.
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Apr 5, 2020 12:55
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Lambert posted:This probably paves the way for massive wealth redistribution in the US: "The poor need your money more, we're forcefully taking it from you". Good! Yeah, that's not happening at all.
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Apr 5, 2020 13:49
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I don't get it. Obviously the distances in the y-axis are ridiculous. 160, 190, 240, 250, 300, 350 But that doesn't even mislead in any reasonable way here. The graph looks basically the same on a reasonable graph. This feels pointless.
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Apr 5, 2020 16:02
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Zwabu posted:The graph starts out with increments of 30 on the y axis. Then it becomes increments of 50 but still at the same distance. So what would show accelerating growth looks linear instead. There is no reason whatsoever to do this except either idiocy or intent to deceive. Yeah, I know about that. It's just that it's completely pointless here. This random twitter person summarized it quite well. https://twitter.com/WWRob/status/1246675364643889152
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Apr 5, 2020 16:11
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BetterToRuleInHell posted:More people are going to die in the inevitable heat death of the universe than the Roni I'm fairly sure, we will all be gone earlier than that.
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Apr 5, 2020 20:30
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I guess we have to keep two meters away from tigers now.
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Apr 5, 2020 21:48
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archaeo posted:cats seem to be able to get it, at least if they are very heavily exposed (some belgian study) Yeah, but also there's a huge difference between, cats can rarely get it, cats actually become sick from it, and cats can transmit it to other cats or back to humans. Nobody really knows anything about that so far. Maybe don't lick your cats teeth for a while.
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Apr 5, 2020 21:51
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HookShot posted:Thank you!!! There's also the fact that it can only test for antibodies. This means that it can only test, if you had the virus at some point. So, people who got infected recently will always be false negatives (and will feel wrongly secure and start to spread their spit everywhere.) And people who went through the process already and are immune will show up too. Furthermore, if your immune system is, for some reason unable to produce that kind of antibody, you could theoretically even die from it and not show a blip on the test. These are the structural problems with such a test. Those probabilistic problems can all be mitigated by various forms of retests. For example, if you get tested positive for antibodies. You might just get tested again. Of course, the errors of those two tests will correlate somewhat, but if two independent tests are both positive, the likelihood of a false positive is somewhat smaller.
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Apr 5, 2020 22:17
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Kerning Chameleon posted:
Just break their legs. This will make them think twice before moving around to much. Seriously though, you sound insane and I can totally see how everyone wants to get away from you. They can't even go out on the porch, because there's a madman glaring at them. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 08:37 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 08:27
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Okay? what if you did do that? And the computer spit out that it would double every 4.876 days. That might be a shockingly powerful prediction, but it also would still make a line that did not pass through each and every daily data point, past or future. You are misunderstanding the most basic thing here. This model is pretty much starting new on this day. The first entry should not be a prediction, because this is a known plot point. Take any other model, like the weather. We are quite good at calculating the weather for short periods and long time trends. (mid-period predictions are pretty much impossible) Now if we want to make a model of the temperature in a country in 20 years we have reasonable ways to predict that. But you have to give an input value of the current system, say the average temperatures of the last year. Is it not obvious that the result would be vastly different if your input would be incorrect? Or if you want to model pandemics. If you are assuming that the amount of infected people doubles every two weeks it makes a huge difference if the current amount is 1000, or 1100.
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Apr 6, 2020 15:31
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Nah it makes sense. The numbers in Germany behave similarly. A decrease on the weekend and a sharp rebound Mondays. It's just that the weekend delays those numbers. New York is most certainly not on a plateau yet.
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Apr 6, 2020 17:52
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Surely, this judge would have acted the same way if it was about a mosque.
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Apr 11, 2020 22:24
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Okay, pretty as they are, those really need to be culled.
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Apr 12, 2020 16:52
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According to German studies, plasma injection with blood from immunized people actually seems to be a reasonable way to fight it. That would be quite good, because the potential supply of that stuff is growing daily and injecting blood plasma is a comparatively safe treatment.
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Apr 12, 2020 18:25
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Ika posted:Have a link? I know of several university hospitals here which put out a call for plasma a week or two ago, but I haven't heard of any results. Hmm. I might have jumped the gun there. Sorry. Earlier today I was reading an article about some university hospital which was already doing it to 19 patients and the doctors were quite impressed with the early results. But I can't find that anymore. And it's not a rigorous study with a double blind test yet. But those have started. I guess, we will see some results in two weeks. If the group with the real plasma gets healthy way faster, that's a significant bit of data. But the important part is that an attempt of passive imunization will have a way smaller risk of long term side effects, compared to a new form of active immunization, or hydrochloride.
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Apr 12, 2020 18:42
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Lambert posted:If that happens, it will be the usual media idiocy where they pin the work of a team to a single person to create some weird "hero" narrative. Also, it's not going to be someone you've ever heard of before. A humble fellow called Donald J. Trump. Seriously, if some actual studies will show that there is an obscure cure, he will obviously tweet that he was already suggesting adding active goal to yak milk for months. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Apr 12, 2020 |
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Apr 12, 2020 18:55
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Lambert posted:Doesn't seem to be the government doing it, though? But according to the Chinese government, the Chinese people are the government. Also, your avatar makes me wary of your opinion on that country.
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Apr 12, 2020 19:01
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It's like some RPG. Every time you eat something which causes corona, you get a slight chance to get instrinct immunity instead. That's why you should always eat deathcaps.
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Apr 12, 2020 20:09
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Dapper_Swindler posted:apperently it might be. whats scarier is folks arent sure about immunity yet. Well, they aren't sure wether it holds a few months, one year, three years or a lifetime. That's not really testable right now. It's quite definetly proven that you are immune for a while.
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Apr 12, 2020 22:52
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