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Should troll Fancy Pelosi be allowed to stay? This poll is closed. |
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The Angry Bum posted:Guess people really try to block out when Giuliani and Bloomberg held that title for 20 straight years where the former would have been reelected in a landslide had he been allowed to run and the latter literally got the law changed so he could. And after the 8 year disaster that has been Bill De Blasio, almost any Republican would be welcome with open arms, because if the Democratic field is counting on Andrew Yang or people similar to carry us on post-Covid then we have real problems. The Democratic State Party is still trying hard to get rid of AOC after all this time. Ah yes, the politics of the early 2000s are a 1:1 match for politics in our post-2016 era. Yep, that tracks, I'm sure the city that voted almost 70% Biden is going to suddenly whiplash into voting a Republican mayor. I do not understand how multiple people in US politics threads, across a long timeframe, fail to grasp that polarization cuts both ways. We talk about GOP voters voting for leopards that eat their faces, well, there's an absolute shitload of Dems that do the exact same behavior—vote for the same party regardless of what they complain about or whoever that party runs. New York City has probably the highest concentration of those voters in the entire country, even. Also, like was pointed out above, if there's a covid-fueled backlash against NY Dems, then how do you explain NY Dems suddenly gaining supermajorities in both state legislative chambers 
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Apr 21, 2021 18:43
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Angry_Ed posted:Can California just take away Devin Nunes' seat? I think that's basically what's going to happen--any seats lost in blue states will be GOP reps' seats. I imagine a Dem rep from Ohio will get gerrymandered out, but WV losing a seat is just a loss for the GOP, since all of their reps are, well, GOP. Given that TX and FL were initially projected to get 3 extra seats each, this could've been much worse.
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Apr 26, 2021 20:29
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:California has a non-partisan redistricting committee and one of the requirements is to attempt to maximize "competitive" districts. It is in no way assured that Devin Nunes' seat is the one that will be gerrymandered out and if it is, then it doesn't mean that his district will be evenly carved out to fill out heavily democratic districts. I know CA uses a non-partisan redistricting committee, but last I heard the state Dems could very easily put pressure on the committee to draw more favorable lines.
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Apr 26, 2021 20:33
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Seph posted:- Alabama will not be losing a seat, and Colorado will not be gaining a seat. This is a -2 to Dems. Unless the Census Bureau vid is lying, Colorado will get a seat, so this is only a -1.
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Apr 26, 2021 21:32
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Gatts posted:Well das not good. You'd want to avoid getting the courts involved after the stuffing Mitch gave it. State courts would be getting involved, not federal courts, as I understand it.
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Apr 26, 2021 22:13
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BigBallChunkyTime posted:Is it gonna be a clusterfuck like it was in 2003? Almost certainly not. The recall election is likely to die at the first question ("Should Gavin Newsom be recalled as governor?") because California is simply just a shitload more Dem than it was in 2003. Last poll I saw was something like 56-40 in favor of keeping him as governor. If the first question fails, then the clown car ballot doesn't even matter.
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Apr 27, 2021 03:44
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Thaddius the Large posted:Oregon is a good House seat to worry about, since while the Dems have a supermajority in the legislature and hold the governor’s office, they granted redistricting power to the Republicans on the promise the R’s won’t obstruct every bit of basic legislation by illegally walking out on sessions like they did last year. So yeah, I’m sure that’ll totally work out fine and dandy. They didn't "grant redistricting power to the Republicans." They (idiotically, yes) gave 50-50 control of a redistricting committee to the GOP. What this means is the maps will likely be drawn by the Oregon state court. Big difference between that and "grant[ing] redistricting power to the Republicans".
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Apr 28, 2021 18:43
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Thaddius the Large posted:Eesh, fair enough, I completely misread that article. Thanks for the correction! In fairness to the original take, it is completely boneheaded of the Oregon Dems to give even 50-50 power for a promise the Oregon GOP will inevitably renege on. Hopefully the Dems can just as easily renege on their side of the faux-bargain, I'd prefer an actively-gerrymandered Dem map to a court-drawn one.
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Apr 28, 2021 19:41
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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1387517047664529415 I don't know much about NLRB policy or how unions are officially formed or how these elections are conducted, what would be the outcome of the Amazon unionization vote being overturned here?
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Apr 30, 2021 14:14
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https://twitter.com/ChuckGrassley/status/1388896548227006465 New incomprehensible Grassley tweet just dropped. I don't know if I like "goggle" or "NOT HISTORY CH" better.
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May 2, 2021 20:31
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TulliusCicero posted:We are supposed to get some new maps for redistricting that are nonpartisan at some point, but who knows if that got held up or hijacked by our loons in the Legislature. There were attempts by the GOP to challenge the commission in court, but those failed. 2022's elections, from what I can find, will be conducted with the independent commission's new maps, not GOP gerrymandered ones.
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May 3, 2021 21:40
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https://twitter.com/cmarinucci/status/1389627480823111680 In lighter, not fake, political news from California...
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May 4, 2021 18:56
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Latest poll for the recall shows: Worth noting that this poll was conducted by McLaughlin, aka Eric Cantor's pollster.
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May 4, 2021 20:06
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From CNBC:quote:The Oversight Board found that Trump had “severely violated” Facebook’s community standards with his posts on Jan. 6. But it also said the platform “seeks to avoid its responsibilities” by applying a vague penalty and then referring it to the board to review. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/facebook-will-keep-trump-ban-in-place.html Basically, "we don't want to actually have to make a decision, you do it."
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May 5, 2021 14:30
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VH4Ever posted:Sure, because those public facing, monetized platforms have a documented history of taking their bullshit and radicalizing people to join their cause. Private communication is a secret club, you have to already know someone inside that world. Besides, again, for the umpteenth time, encrypted messaging has uses by lots of GOOD people like press or freedom fighters worldwide. Encrypted communications as a thing are not the enemy here, that is as wrongheaded as can be. But I guess a take like that showing up in this thread doesn't surprise me on a forum that thinks China can do no wrong. I'd like to note this isn't the first time that USPol/USNews has had an argument about this sort of thing—there was a minor debate last year about whether or not the entirety of Discord should be shut down because of its use by right-wingers, and a major debate in December about whether or not killing Section 230 was worth it, in the face of some GOP senators pinky-promising their support for a higher stimulus payment in exchange for killing 230. The Internet, and SA is not immune from this, is full of people who mentally short-circuit from "bad people use this thing" or "bad people will let us kill this good thing for something we want" to "we need to do this now or society will unravel."
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May 5, 2021 20:19
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Strawberry Pyramid posted:"There's nothing we can do about these Encrypted communications are how vulnerable populations organize to be less vulnerable. There's a real reason that dictators and right-wing governments do everything they can to kill encrypted communication. You're, in effect, taking the exact same position that the US intelligence agencies and cops did in 2015/2016, when they were putting heavy pressure on Apple to remove their encryption from macOS and iOS. Please think about that for a second.
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May 5, 2021 20:21
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CommieGIR posted:There's no way this doesn't get thrown out. SCOTUS already ruled on that. Has SCOTUS ruled on it? Not seeing anything on it from a quick Google; the EFF article about recording police that's on the first page of results says that six different circuit courts have upheld it (First, Third, Fifth, Seventh, Ninth, and Eleventh). It's 100% going to get thrown out, though, yeah.
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May 6, 2021 22:47
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paternity suitor posted:That's interesting, because at the moment it seems everyone expects the GOP to take back the House in 2022. I mean, the opinions I've seen are "priors would indicate the GOP taking the House but there's a lot of strange dynamics at play here that make it difficult to forecast 2022." Like, a part of the expectation for the GOP taking back the House was that they were expected to gain a few seats just from reapportionment, and now it looks like that may be either a wash, or a net loss of one seat, even.
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May 8, 2021 22:28
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Vorik posted:There are tons of democrats and independents who are very much against the vaccine and might hold it against the Dems for pushing those vaccines. Do you have any data to back this up? This directly contradicts every poll I've seen.
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May 9, 2021 19:26
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I think 2020 just sort of broke Wasserman and the Cook Political Report staff as a whole. Being so far off base with their House and Senate ratings seems to have left them scrambling to figure out how their jobs are relevant any more, and it seems like the answer is...concern trolling about electoral prospects on Twitter. My favorite part of the meltdown was their article on reapportionment, which seemed to just ignore the possibility of Dem states dropping GOP house reps.
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May 10, 2021 17:41
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That Wasserman prediction continues to baffle me. Unless he's just tweeting out random predictions because it'll get him attention, and I don't think he's at that point yet, surely he of all people should understand how polarization is killing crossover voting in the US—and, by extension, the possibility of a state that voted for Biden by 10% coming anywhere near electing a GOP candidate. He was one of the first people to note that crossover districts (i.e. Biden + GOP rep or Trump + Dem rep) were at an all-time low after 2020! I just don't get it.
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May 10, 2021 17:59
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:First round of voting in the GOP Primary in VA is over. Chase is the one who's gonna throw a fit and run as a third party candidate if she loses, right?
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May 10, 2021 20:53
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GlyphGryph posted:Uh... my state went > 10% for Biden and still elected a GOP governor though? Maryland or Massachusetts? Either way, the dynamics get more complicated when you're dealing with a popular incumbent governor that does their best to keep their head down in an otherwise-unfriendly state, but I believe broader polarization theory still holds true.
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May 10, 2021 21:00
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1392090691908640770 I feel like we heard about "unease among Dem centrists" about parts of the ARP and they ultimately fell in line with minor adjustments to extended UI.
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May 11, 2021 18:12
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evilweasel posted:loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool the nra managed to get hosed IN A TEXAS COURT lmao did the NRA's cockamamie scheme seriously fall apart because they got assigned to a random bankruptcy judge
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May 11, 2021 20:28
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TulliusCicero posted:I keep wondering if this is going to happen to Romney, but I have a feeling that this particular spanking is because Liz is a woman who talked bad about Trump, and the GOP is slavishly devoted to a mysognist pig and run on an openly mysognist platform. This is absolutely not going to happen to Romney, because even the most foolish GOP fashies are not foolish enough to deliberately lose a Senate seat.
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May 12, 2021 18:03
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Night10194 posted:Well, they did shoot themselves in the foot on two in Georgia. There's a difference between playing a strategy that ends up depressing your own voting base, and actively antagonizing and pushing away one of your senators.
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May 12, 2021 18:46
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FizFashizzle posted:You'd have to think if 2022 goes badly enough for them they'll FINALLY cut the cord. Any harm they suffer from staying with Trump, no matter how severe, is worse than the harm they'd suffer from cutting Trump off. It's a choice between losing enough voters to lose in some states and losing enough voters to lose in more states.
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May 12, 2021 20:24
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TwoQuestions posted:What in the world makes you think the Republicans will lose in 22? With fresh gerrymanders and the President's party almost always losing seats, and how 60% of the population blames everything including male pattern baldness on Biden, they all but have it in the bag. First of all, re: gerrymanders, a) any gerrymanders made on 2020 data are going to be wonky as hell, due to all of the special circumstances surrounding the 2020 election, b) there are Dem states gearing up to draw their own gerrymanders, and c) there are at at least two states that were hit very hard with gerrymanders in 2010, Michigan and Wisconsin, that either now let independent commissions handle redistricting (MI) or have a Dem governor that can reject the gerrymanders and send the task of drawing districts to the courts (WI). Also, what makes you think "the President's party almost always loses seats" is some intractable fact of US politics, rather than just how circumstances have shaken out? And "60% of the population"? Again, where are you getting that from, besides anxiety about the political future of the US? The GOP already ran their strategy for 2022 with the GA runoffs, and it made them lose.
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May 12, 2021 20:48
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Kale posted:2022 seems likely to come down to which seats are being contested or not and little else. I feel like doom saying of Republican majorities or crowing about how they are going to be decimated doesn't really apply anymore. I just don't expect people to budge much anymore either way. If they're in a red districts it's going red, if it's blue districts it's going blue and not much is likely to change that anymore besides red district candidates getting Trumpier and Trumpier. I'm kind of a firm believer in the 2 America's phenomenon now as far as voting patterns go. The severe decline of crossover districts in 2020 supports this theory, yeah.
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May 12, 2021 20:54
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UncleButts posted:There's a high probability that the GOP controlled legislature and court find One Weird Trick to sidestep Evers's veto Better than a 100% chance the state gets gerrymandered. Fair enough, though, caveats for that part.
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May 12, 2021 21:20
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Grouchio posted:Turns out the Manhattan Prosecutor JUST GOT HIS TAX RETURNS That article is from February. e: goddammit
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May 13, 2021 21:51
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Vivian Darkbloom posted:But does he have any platform? If it's just Parler dudes amplifying it, the effect can't be that big. I hope. I don't have the chart on hand, but Trump's social media reach has dropped by well over 90% in the months since he got banned from both Facebook and Twitter. I wouldn't be surprised if there's hardcore MAGA people who have no idea the guy's still saying unhinged poo poo on his website.
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May 16, 2021 02:19
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I had no idea who Larry Summers was before a few weeks prior to the inauguration, but it is extremely funny to see him constantly trying to worm his way into the public discourse. It's also annoying seeing media outlets gladly giving him space to do that, and obscuring that it's always just him saying dumb poo poo.
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May 17, 2021 16:46
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1394815678314696715 Interesting that even a double-digit amount of Rs are willing to vote for this. Guess they're hoping it'll die unnoticed in the Senate.
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May 19, 2021 03:07
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Dapper_Swindler posted:did the mayor suck? I can't find much about him, but Gainey looks like a standard Dem, from his voting history. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Krasner is looking in good shape. I was a bit worried earlier when I saw how hard the cop unions were going in on trying to get Krasner out, even if I don't live in Philadelphia or even Pennsylvania; what does "good shape" mean here?
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May 19, 2021 03:44
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:He's winning by about 30 points with 55% of the vote in. All the mail-in ballots that were for him came in and were counted, so his vote share is most likely going to go down from here. He'd need to lose really bad in the remaining area (which are his opponent's strongest areas) in order to actually lose by a reasonable amount, but if he gets beaten by less than 66/33 there, then he is fine. Checking Philadelphia's election results website, looks like 64% of districts have reported in, and Krasner is at 64% of the vote—is that the 55% of the vote you were referring to, or is the race over by this point?
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May 19, 2021 03:58
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Yeah, he was at that level earlier. And if they are down to 1/3 of the vote left, then Krasner has won unless he starts losing 85-15 in all remaining districts. Speaking as an admitted non-Philadelphian: phew. Good to see that cop union bullshit can fail, and fail badly. Looks like another 8% of districts just came in, and Krasner is still at 64%. Seems like it's very over.
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May 19, 2021 04:04
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Vorik posted:https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1394853745926803464?s=21 I'm not sure what Taniel's talking about here. The previous holder of the seat won with 61% of the vote in 2018, though SD22 does, according to Ballotpedia, partly reside in a Obama -> Trump district.
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May 19, 2021 04:23
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lmao oh gently caress this is gonna be Krasner's GOP opponent in the general https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1390854187970400257 had no idea The Bathtub Guy was trying to beat Krasner
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May 19, 2021 04:27
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